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Trainer profile

M J Grassick

646 runners in the lifetime window · 81 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Dec 2012
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
36–646
Wins / Runs
5.6%
Strike rate
n=646
136 (21%)
Placed
0.78
Fair A/E
n=646 · 0.59 incl. margin
−368.02
£1 level stake
n=646 at SP · −57.0%
£474k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 130 runners a season, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.78).

Deterministic profile computed from 646 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 6.6% N G McCullagh: 4.6% from 152
The read

The record is strongest at Ballinrobe (14%, n=43), clear of the yard's 5.6% baseline. It is weakest at Gowran Park (0% over 34 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=54, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 5% strike, Fair A/E 0.78 and −108.00 to a £1 stake over 202 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. N G McCullagh rode 24% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.6%, A/E 0.84). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the M.McNamara & Co.Builders Dublin & Galway Premier Handicap at Galway (Aug 2007, £97,650). The stable star of the record was Hard Rock City (USA) — 9 wins from 46 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.6%+1.0
n=122 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −61.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.5%+6.9
n=8 · A/E 3.50 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.6
n=54 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −54.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.6
n=31 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −31.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.6
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
When favourite
31%
n=29 · A/E 1.42 · £1 +1.48
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5%−0.6
n=202 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −108.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.6
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With C&D winners 18% vs 5.6% · n=50
At Ballinrobe 14% vs 5.6% · n=43
With debutants 0% vs 5.6% · n=54
With Danny Mullins 10.7% vs 5.6% · n=56
At Gowran Park 0% vs 5.6% · n=34
With first-time headgear 0% vs 5.6% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 571 31 5.4% −316.02
Hurdle 61 5 8.2% −38.00
NH Flat 14 0 0% −14.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 221 17 7.7% −67.12
Standard (AW) 131 11 8.4% −73.90
Good 98 2 2% −87.50
Good to Firm 76 1 1.3% −73.00
Heavy 69 2 2.9% −50.50
Good to Soft 42 2 4.8% −16.00
Firm 9 1 11.1% +0.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 111 6 5.4% −71.00
Curragh 93 3 3.2% −30.00
Leopardstown 87 4 4.6% −55.75
Ballinrobe 43 6 14% +18.50
Naas 38 1 2.6% −31.50
Gowran Park 34 0 0% −34.00
Navan 22 0 0% −22.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 19 5 26.3% −1.90
Cork 18 1 5.6% −13.50
Sligo 18 0 0% −18.00
Downpatrick 17 2 11.8% −10.00
Tramore 16 1 6.3% −13.12
Fairyhouse 15 0 0% −15.00
Galway 15 0 0% −15.00
Clonmel 15 2 13.3% +0.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 20 0 0% −20.00
Class 6 8 2 25% +1.25
Class 5 7 2 28.6% −1.65
Class 4 3 1 33.3% −0.50
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 42 11 26.2% 1.29 −1.52
2nd–3rd fav 100 10 10% 0.74 −43.50
4th–6th fav 179 11 6.1% 0.86 −78.00
7th+ in betting 325 4 1.2% 0.35 −245.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
King Of Aran (IRE)then M C Grassick 36 4 17 23 Nov 12
Hard Rock City (USA) 29 3 9 27 Aug 12
Philosophers Guest (IRE) 27 1 7 22 Jul 11
Torina (IRE) 26 1 10 10 May 12
Coral Creek (IRE)then S Slevin 24 4 8 12 Mar 10
Trikirk (IRE)then M C Grassick 22 1 9 7 Oct 10
Majestic Pearl (IRE)then Alan Daly 19 0 3 29 Oct 10
Vera Lilley (IRE) 19 0 1 24 Aug 10
Silver Tide (USA)then Joseph G Murphy 19 2 8 5 Nov 09
Laurel Creek (IRE)then M C Grassick 18 3 6 30 Jun 11
American Princess (IRE) 15 2 4 13 May 10
Boulay (IRE) 14 1 5 19 Oct 11
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 81 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 55 had their first archived run for this yard.

18 have since run for another yard, most often for M C Grassick (6) and Ian Semple (2); 42 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
17207273858330
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderN G McCullagh
24% of all rides
4.6% SR · A/E 0.84
RiderRWSR£1
N G McCullagh 152 7 4.6% −96.50
Danny Mullins 56 6 10.7% −2.50
Pat Smullen 47 3 6.4% −20.50
Keagan Latham 30 1 3.3% −23.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
88
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£1.50m
Prize money
2007
Best season · 21 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Hard Rock City (USA) — M.McNamara & Co.Builders Dublin & Galway Premier Handicap Galway · Aug 2007
£97,650
Hard Rock City (USA) — Oliver Freaney September Handicap Leopardstown · Sep 2005
£65,100
Hard Rock City (USA) — Leopardstown Pavilion September Handicap Leopardstown · Sep 2009
£55,335
Notable horses
Hard Rock City (USA) Coral Creek (IRE) Little Nymph (GB) Sunshine Guest (IRE) King Of Aran (IRE) Moore's Law (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 6.8% · 4–59
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,863 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Desert Prince (IRE) 6.5% · 3–46
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,734 runs since 2008 (178 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.6% from 425.
Val Royal (FR) 11.1% · 4–36
Progeny have won 8.8% of 2,015 runs since 2008 (127 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5% from 140.
Danzig (USA) 10.3% · 3–29
Progeny have won 11.8% of 289 runs since 2008 (24 horses).
Golan (IRE) 3.8% · 1–26
Progeny have won 8.7% of 3,151 runs since 2008 (288 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.4% from 258.
King's Best (USA) 0% · 0–26
Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,303 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,303 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 January 2005 to 28 December 2012.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
28 Dec 12 Leopardstown Casimir Road (IRE)J: Paul Carberry Star Best For Racing Christmas Rated Hurdle16f · Soft · 16 ran 15th 20/1
26 Dec 12 Leopardstown Dorian Bay (IRE)J: Mr S G Carey Donohue Marquees Flat Race16f · Soft · 13 ran 13th 50/1
23 Nov 12 Dundalk (AW) King Of Aran (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Dundalk Stadium - Light Up Your Night Handicap12f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 14/1
02 Nov 12 Dundalk (AW) Unescorted (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Crowne Plaza Leading Jockey & Trainer Championship Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)8f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 12/1
27 Oct 12 Leopardstown King Of Aran (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Leopardstown Club Members Handicap12f · Soft · 16 ran 16th 12/1
16 Oct 12 Curragh Linenhall Lady (IRE)J: Gary Phillips Curragh Gift Vouchers Handicap7f · Heavy · 12 ran 12th 20/1
16 Oct 12 Curragh Unescorted (IRE)J: Ben Curtis Curragh Gift Vouchers Handicap7f · Heavy · 12 ran 6th 16/1
14 Oct 12 Curragh Only Exception (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Foleys Antiques European Breeders Fund Fillies Maiden9f · Heavy · 9 ran 4th 25/1
14 Oct 12 Curragh Boule De Neige (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Mongey Communications European Breeders Fund Maiden8f · Heavy · 8 ran 6th 33/1
10 Oct 12 Navan Unescorted (IRE)J: Ross Coakley Trim Apprentice Handicap (47-65)5f · Soft · 15 ran 10th 16/1
05 Oct 12 Gowran Park Linenhall Lady (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Kilkenny Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 13th 14/1
30 Sep 12 Curragh Boule De Neige (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Kevin Cullen Lifetime Achievement In Racing European Breeders Fund Fillies Maiden7f · Heavy · 15 ran 12th 33/1
28 Sep 12 Dundalk (AW) Elusive In Paris (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Crowne Plaza Hotel Dundalk Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 9/2
15 Sep 12 Curragh King Of Aran (IRE)J: Mr S G Carey Curragh Amateur Derby (Q.R.) Handicap (50-85)12f · Yielding · 18 ran 1st 16/1
15 Sep 12 Curragh Elusive In Paris (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Glanbia Handicap (60-100)8f · Yielding · 15 ran 2nd 12/1
14 Sep 12 Down Royal Fernhill Dancer (IRE)J: Ben Curtis House Of Fraser European Breeders Fund Fillies Maiden10.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 10th 33/1
06 Sep 12 Clonmel Celtic Charm (IRE)J: Sam James Tipperary Claiming Race10f · Good · 13 ran 13th 50/1
06 Sep 12 Clonmel Linenhall Lady (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Tipperary Claiming Race10f · Good · 13 ran 6th 20/1
27 Aug 12 Dundalk (AW) Hard Rock City (USA)J: N G McCullagh Follow Dundalk On Facebook Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)7f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 6/1
22 Aug 12 Bellewstown Unescorted (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Lougher Stables Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)5f · Soft · 14 ran 7th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is M J Grassick's strike rate?
M J Grassick has won 36 of 646 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does M J Grassick do best at?
Ballinrobe by strike rate: 6 wins from 43 runners (14%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for M J Grassick?
N G McCullagh, with 152 runners since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (4.6%).
What is M J Grassick's Fair A/E?
0.78, from 646 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).