What is Paul Robson's strike rate?

Paul Robson has won 25 of 288 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.7% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Robson do best at?

Kelso by strike rate: 5 wins from 45 runners (11.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul Robson?

Craig Nichol, with 71 runners since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (15.5%).

What is Paul Robson's Fair A/E?

1.03, from 288 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Robson

288 runners in the lifetime window · 53 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 147 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

25–288

Wins / Runs

8.7%

Strike rate

n=288

68 (24%)

Placed

1.03

Fair A/E

n=288 · 0.89 incl. margin

−118.37

£1 level stake

n=288 at SP · −41.1%

£277k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03).

Deterministic profile computed from 288 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Craig Nichol: 15.5% from 71

The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 2.6% (n=39, Fair A/E 0.46). Craig Nichol rides 25% of the entries and beats the yard's average (15.5% vs 8.7%, A/E 1.41) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good going (15.5%, n=97) and in Chase races (14.9%, n=94). The record reads poorly in Flat races — 0% over 31 runners, 8.7pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.2%−3.5

n=77 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −50.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

3.2%−5.5

n=31 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −28.50

Debutants · first career start

8.7%+0.0

n=23 · A/E 1.64 · £1 +22.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−8.7

n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.1%+0.4

n=11 · A/E 2.16 · £1 −2.00

When favourite

33.3%

n=18 · A/E 1.04 · £1 +1.30

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

2.6%−6.1

n=39 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −31.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.7

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Good going 15.5% vs 8.7% · n=97

With Callum Bewley 0% vs 8.7% · n=32

In Flat races 0% vs 8.7% · n=31

With Craig Nichol 15.5% vs 8.7% · n=71

In Chase races 14.9% vs 8.7% · n=94

Off a 15-30-day break 13.7% vs 8.7% · n=95

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 137 9 6.6% −73.00

Chase 94 14 14.9% −19.37

Flat 31 0 0% −31.00

NH Flat 26 2 7.7% +5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 97 15 15.5% −4.75

Good to Soft 94 4 4.3% −69.67

Soft 68 3 4.4% −50.75

Heavy 14 2 14.3% −4.20

Good to Firm 8 0 0% −8.00

Standard (AW) 7 1 14.3% +19.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kelso 45 5 11.1% −20.70

Hexham 30 3 10% −11.50

Newcastle 29 2 6.9% −1.00

Musselburgh 26 2 7.7% −17.25

Carlisle 21 0 0% −21.00

Ayr 19 2 10.5% −8.75

Perth 17 1 5.9% −8.00

Sedgefield 17 0 0% −17.00

Wetherby 11 1 9.1% −8.00

Uttoxeter 9 1 11.1% +10.00

Catterick 7 0 0% −7.00

Bangor-on-Dee 6 2 33.3% +6.50

Hamilton 6 0 0% −6.00

Newcastle (AW) 6 0 0% −6.00

Cartmel 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 121 8 6.6% −59.50

Class 5 112 13 11.6% −23.42

Class 6 23 0 0% −23.00

Class 3 21 2 9.5% −16.95

Class 2 8 2 25% +7.50

Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 22 6 27.3% 0.90 −2.70

2nd–3rd fav 45 9 20% 1.13 −1.17

4th–6th fav 92 10 10.9% 1.53 +14.50

7th+ in betting 129 0 0% 0.00 −129.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

79.7% completed · 231 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 94 83% 1 0 15 0 0

Hurdle 137 77.4% 0 3 25 2 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Haveyougotmymoney (IRE) 20 2 8 28 Jun 24

Breizh River (FR)then Tristan Davidson 19 3 8 30 Sep 25

Just Don't Know (IRE)from Adam Robson 18 4 10 22 Jan 24

Magic Mike (IRE)from Josh Halley 14 3 6 8 Nov 23

Cannock Park (GB) 13 2 6 13 Jun 26

Okavango Delta (IRE)from Rose Dobbin 13 3 5 12 Jun 26

Diamond Mix (IRE)then Ewan Whillans 12 2 4 19 May 26

Ravenswell (FR)from Ralph J Smith · then Thomas Faulkner 10 0 1 4 Jun 26

Aazza (IRE)from Rose Dobbin 10 2 4 27 Aug 25

Arctic Ambition (IRE)from Gordon Elliott 10 0 1 13 Mar 25

Away She Goes (IRE)from Brian Ellison 9 1 3 28 Nov 25

Freedom Day (IRE)from Mark Walford 9 0 0 16 Jun 25

All 53 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 53 horses listed, 30 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Rose Dobbin (5) and Adam Robson (3); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for Ewan Whillans (4) and Adam Nicol (2); 37 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1955201960061480

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderCraig Nichol

25% of all rides
15.5% SR · A/E 1.41

RiderRWSR£1

Craig Nichol 71 11 15.5% −2.00

Ryan Mania 70 5 7.1% −21.00

Callum Bewley 32 0 0% −32.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→

Archived wins

£277k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 8 wins

Breizh River (FR) — Ray & Anita Green Chasing 500 Winners Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Kelso · Oct 2024 · Class 2

£20,812

Just Don't Know (IRE) — Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Handicap Chase Ayr · Mar 2023 · Class 3

£12,338

Cannock Park (GB) — mallardjewellers.com Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Nov 2023 · Class 2

£10,562

Notable horses

Just Don't Know (IRE) Breizh River (FR) Magic Mike (IRE) Okavango Delta (IRE) Haveyougotmymoney (IRE) Cannock Park (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Ol' Man River (IRE) 10% · 2–20

Progeny have won 7.3% of 509 runs since 2022 (57 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 10.7% from 103. Weakest on Good going: 4.1% from 172.

Kalanisi (IRE) 21.1% · 4–19

Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,750 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.

Stormy River (FR) 15.8% · 3–19

Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,230 runs since 2011 (253 horses).

Doyen (IRE) 21.4% · 3–14

Progeny have won 11.6% of 7,381 runs since 2009 (606 horses).

Cannock Chase (USA) 15.4% · 2–13

Progeny have won 7.4% of 311 runs since 2020 (34 horses).

Mahler (GB) 7.7% · 1–13

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,880 runs since 2014 (789 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 288 · newest first

The latest 50 of 288 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 March 2020 to 13 June 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Jun 26 Hexham Cannock Park (GB)J: Callum Bewley Lisa Bond Celebration Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 20f · Good · 8 ran RR 66/1

12 Jun 26 Market Rasen Okavango Delta (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Bob And Babs Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 22/1

04 Jun 26 Hamilton Ravenswell (FR)J: Billy Garritty Hampton By Hilton Hamilton Park HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good · 11 ran 8th 9/1

02 Jun 26 Newcastle (AW) Mr Withington (FR)J: Aiden Brookes Living North Christmas Fair HandicapClass 6 · 12.5f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 22/1

24 May 26 Kelso Terino (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Ladies Day Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran PU 66/1

24 May 26 Kelso Mr Withington (FR)J: Callum Bewley Ladies Day Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 7th 80/1

21 May 26 Musselburgh Ravenswell (FR)J: Miss Natasha Cookson Watch On Racing TV Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 5th 10/1

19 May 26 Hexham Diamond Mix (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Port Of Blyth Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 5/1

17 May 26 Stratford Okavango Delta (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Ladies Day On Sunday 19th July Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran PU 7/1

14 Mar 26 Newcastle Orestina (GB)J: Ryan Mania Guinness At The Canny Lad Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 10th 12/1

14 Mar 26 Newcastle Diamond Mix (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Guinness At The Hawk Ponteland Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 2/1

14 Mar 26 Newcastle Flaming Norman (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Guinness Draught Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 66/1

06 Mar 26 Ayr King Horse (FR)J: Ryan Mania Book The Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Soft · 6 ran PU 13/2

03 Mar 26 Newcastle Moonlight Trail (GB)J: Lilly Pinchin Border Minstrel Sunday Lunch Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 9th 50/1

03 Mar 26 Newcastle Tiggerelli (GB)J: Callum Bewley Border Minstrel Sunday Lunch Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 6th 66/1

21 Feb 26 Newcastle Sparky Tom (GB)J: Ryan Mania Costello's Cleaning Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 10th 40/1

21 Feb 26 Newcastle Flaming Norman (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 11th 40/1

17 Feb 26 Market Rasen Le Breton (FR)J: Ryan Mania Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 9/2

15 Feb 26 Musselburgh King Horse (FR)J: Ryan Mania Time For Heroes Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20.5f · Soft · 6 ran 2nd 10/1

09 Feb 26 Catterick Athair Mor (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Soft · 7 ran 2nd 11/4J

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Robson's strike rate?: Paul Robson has won 25 of 288 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.7% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Robson do best at?: Kelso by strike rate: 5 wins from 45 runners (11.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Robson?: Craig Nichol, with 71 runners since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (15.5%).
What is Paul Robson's Fair A/E?: 1.03, from 288 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.