Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 70 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.86). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 7% (43 runs, true-first definition).
Deterministic profile computed from 1,285 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance26.8% when favouriteRhiain Ingram: 5% from 441Sends off the favourite in 3% of races
The read
It is weakest at Lingfield (0% over 44 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 0% (n=66, Fair A/E 0.00). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 4.8% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.28 and +2.00 to a £1 stake over 186 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Rhiain Ingram rides 34% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5%, A/E 0.94). The stable star of the record: Buxton (GB) — 8 wins from 93 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.8%−0.3
n=186 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +2.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.1
n=66 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −66.00
Debutants · first career start
2%−3.1
n=50 · A/E 1.07 · £1 +1.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7%+1.9
n=43 · A/E 1.78 · £1 +22.25
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4.1%−1.0
n=49 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −26.50
When favourite
26.8%
n=41 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −1.13
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.8%−0.3
n=519 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −233.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.1
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners11.4% vs 5.1% · n=70
With Jimmy Quinn11.9% vs 5.1% · n=42
With new recruits0% vs 5.1% · n=66
With Martin Lane10.1% vs 5.1% · n=69
With C&D winners8.7% vs 5.1% · n=241
At Lingfield0% vs 5.1% · n=44
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat1,256665.3%−485.50
Hurdle2800%−28.00
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)888525.9%−268.38
Good to Firm17042.4%−131.12
Good11943.4%−90.00
Soft4524.4%−13.00
Good to Soft3339.1%+1.00
Firm1915.3%−2.00
Heavy1100%−11.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW)359236.4%−169.63
Kempton286165.6%+13.25
Chelmsford (AW)157106.4%−41.75
Brighton7756.5%−22.62
Wolverhampton (AW)7034.3%−54.25
Windsor6223.2%−42.00
Lingfield4400%−44.00
Sandown2414.2%−15.00
Epsom2214.5%−17.50
Bath2114.8%−4.00
Yarmouth2000%−20.00
Salisbury1700%−17.00
Southwell (AW)1600%−16.00
Plumpton1200%−12.00
Folkestone1100%−11.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 6747456%−220.05
Class 534282.3%−214.33
Class 4124118.9%−30.12
Class 72627.7%−4.00
Class 32500%−25.00
Class 21200%−12.00
Class 1900%−9.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite441125%0.97−4.13
2nd–3rd fav1421812.7%0.90−31.87
4th–6th fav352205.7%0.80−108.50
7th+ in betting747172.3%0.83−370.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f488316.4%−142.87
1m2f – 1m4f336154.5%−156.63
1m – 1m1f284134.6%−126.75
Under 6f9055.6%−33.25
1m5f – 2m6922.9%−37.00
2m1f – 2m4f1300%−13.00
2m5f – 3m500%−5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200811398%−43.58
20099844.1%−61.00
20106134.9%−28.50
20117822.6%−66.12
20127134.2%−20.00
20139777.2%−16.50
201411065.5%−47.00
20159577.4%+11.00
20169833.1%−42.00
20178833.4%−25.00
20186411.6%−55.00
20197622.6%−40.00
20205911.7%−30.00
20215247.7%−18.50
202244613.6%+20.50
202349510.2%−20.80
20243200%−32.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps987525.3%−368.37
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners530214%−293.00
8-10 runners434255.8%−101.75
14-16 runners160106.3%−15.50
5-7 runners13975%−103.13
17+ runners1100%−11.00
2-4 runners11327.3%+9.88
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 122 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Richard Fahey (4) and David Evans (3); 32 had their first archived run for this yard.
14 have since run for another yard, most often for Joseph Parr (3); 46 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
6121534275428
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
90
Archived wins
£539k
Prize money
2005
Best season · 13 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Sky Crusader (GB) — Vodafone Group Services Handicap Epsom Downs · Jun 2005 · Class 2
£20,300
Tears Of A Clown (GB) — British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Windsor · May 2023 · Class 4
£5,373
Dukes Meadow (GB) — Totepool Supporting The Sport You Love Handicap Chelmsford City (AW) · Nov 2015 · Class 4
Progeny have won 9.5% of 7,219 runs since 2009 (437 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.4% from 109. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1.5% from 133.
Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE)2% · 1–50
Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,566 runs since 2008 (872 horses).
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,582 runs since 2010 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.
Verglas (IRE)4.9% · 2–41
Progeny have won 10.2% of 6,977 runs since 2008 (499 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,657 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,657 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 3 October 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Roger Ingram's strike rate?
Roger Ingram has won 66 of 1,285 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.1% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Roger Ingram do best at?
Brighton by strike rate: 5 wins from 77 runners (6.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Roger Ingram?
Rhiain Ingram, with 441 runners since 2008 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (5%).
What is Roger Ingram's Fair A/E?
0.86, from 1,277 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Roger Ingram·SR 5.1%·A/E 0.86
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