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Trainer profile

Ronan M P McNally

311 runners in the lifetime window · 25 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner May 2023
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2014→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
48–311
Wins / Runs
15.4%
Strike rate
n=311
92 (30%)
Placed
1.34
Fair A/E
n=310 · 1.09 incl. margin
−75.78
£1 level stake
n=311 at SP · −24.4%
£492k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
16.7%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.34).

Deterministic profile computed from 311 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance 55.2% when favourite Sends off the favourite in 19% of races
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 11.4% (n=105, Fair A/E 1.07). The yard also reads well in Class 4 (33.3%, n=39) and on Good going (21.6%, n=97). The record reads poorly in Flat races — 10% over 60 runners, 5.4pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan (Nov 2020, £73,750). The stable star of the record: The Jam Man (IRE) — 8 wins from 48 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
12.9%−2.5
n=70 · A/E 1.62 · £1 +25.05
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.3%−10.1
n=19 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −17.09
Debutants · first career start
0%−15.4
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−15.4
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−15.4
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
When favourite
55.2%
n=58 · A/E 1.55 · £1 +13.97
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
11.4%−4.0
n=105 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −43.15
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
16.7%+1.3
n=18 · A/E 3.12 · £1 +42.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 45.1% vs 15.4% · n=51
In Class 4 33.3% vs 15.4% · n=39
With Danny Mullins 4.1% vs 15.4% · n=49
On Good going 21.6% vs 15.4% · n=97
On Soft going 10.4% vs 15.4% · n=115
In Flat races 10% vs 15.4% · n=60
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 153 25 16.3% −3.44
Chase 98 17 17.3% −38.41
Flat 60 6 10% −33.93

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 115 12 10.4% −33.55
Good 97 21 21.6% −15.14
Heavy 52 7 13.5% −11.07
Good to Soft 36 5 13.9% −14.64
Standard (AW) 9 2 22.2% −1.00
Good to Firm 2 1 50% −0.38

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Navan 33 4 12.1% +8.91
Ayr 24 1 4.2% −21.62
Punchestown 20 3 15% +7.29
Downpatrick 19 2 10.5% −15.29
Fairyhouse 18 2 11.1% −4.38
Hexham 15 5 33.3% +10.13
Limerick 14 3 21.4% +3.95
Gowran Park 13 0 0% −13.00
Kilbeggan 12 1 8.3% −8.00
Down Royal 11 0 0% −11.00
Clonmel 11 0 0% −11.00
Roscommon 10 2 20% +1.75
Tipperary 8 1 12.5% −1.50
Dundalk (AW) 8 2 25% +0.00
Galway 7 1 14.3% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 39 13 33.3% +0.18
Class 5 28 5 17.9% −12.02
Class 1 19 3 15.8% +41.50
Class 3 6 3 50% +0.17
Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 63 33 52.4% 1.54 +13.47
2nd–3rd fav 41 6 14.6% 0.94 −11.75
4th–6th fav 65 5 7.7% 1.13 −17.50
7th+ in betting 142 4 2.8% 1.10 −60.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
86.5% completed · 251 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 98 81.6% 3 1 14 0 0
Hurdle 153 89.5% 1 0 15 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
See Double You (IRE)from J Woods 51 6 21 4 May 21
The Jam Man (IRE)from R A Curran · then P J Rothwell 48 8 18 2 Apr 23
The Trigger (IRE)from Mrs Caroline McCaldin 35 8 15 15 Apr 21
Dreal Deal (IRE)then John C McConnell 31 7 9 12 May 23
Da Baba Elephant (IRE) 28 5 8 18 Sep 20
Miss Polly Shelby (IRE) 16 0 0 26 Sep 22
Vee Dancer (IRE)then Ryan Potter 15 4 5 31 Mar 23
Easy Cash D'alex (FR)from Paul O'Flynn · then J G Coogan 14 0 0 3 Nov 20
Violoniste (FR)from Sam England 9 2 3 24 Aug 18
Full Noise (IRE)from David Peter Dunne · then Paul Traynor 8 2 3 25 May 23
Petrol Head (IRE)from David Peter Dunne · then Miss Katy Brown 8 2 3 8 Jul 22
All Class (FR)from David Peter Dunne · then Paul Traynor 7 3 3 29 Aug 22
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 25 horses listed, 19 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from David Peter Dunne (3) and J G Cosgrave (2); 6 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Paul Traynor (2) and Ryan Potter (2); 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
61380924341515131521
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDanny Mullins
16% of all rides
4.1% SR · A/E 0.50
RiderRWSR£1
Danny Mullins 49 2 4.1% −32.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2014→
48
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£492k
Prize money
2020
Best season · 12 wins
The Jam Man (IRE) — Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase (0-150) (Grade B) Navan · Nov 2020 · Grade B
£73,750
The Jam Man (IRE) — eCOMM Merchant Solutions Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) Navan · Dec 2019 · Grade B
£47,200
Dreal Deal (IRE) — Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (Grade 2) Punchestown · Jan 2021 · Grade 2
£20,650
Notable horses
The Jam Man (IRE) The Trigger (IRE) Dreal Deal (IRE) See Double You (IRE) Da Baba Elephant (IRE) Vee Dancer (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Saddlers' Hall (IRE) 11.8% · 6–51
Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).
Papal Bull (GB) 16.7% · 8–48
Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,585 runs since 2012 (131 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.5% from 173. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.3% from 122.
Beneficial (GB) 22.9% · 8–35
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,047 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Arvico (FR) 22.6% · 7–31
Progeny have won 7.4% of 659 runs since 2009 (80 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 10.9% from 202. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 2.7% from 110.
Subtle Power (IRE) 17.9% · 5–28
Progeny have won 10% of 748 runs since 2008 (65 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 127. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 13.9% from 115. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.5% from 153.
Mahler (GB) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,894 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 311 · newest first

The latest 50 of 311 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2014 to 25 May 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
25 May 23 Limerick Full Noise (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Springfort Hall Hotel Handicap Chase (0-102)22.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran PU 5/6F
12 May 23 Kilbeggan Dreal Deal (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Cooke's Bar And Restaurant Caragh Beginners Chase19f · Yielding · 14 ran 3rd 7/1
05 May 23 Downpatrick Full Noise (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Cosy Roof Handicap Chase (0-95)19f · Yielding · 12 ran 1st 4/5F
18 Apr 23 Tipperary Dreal Deal (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue TipperaryRaces.ie Rated Novice Chase20f · Yielding · 4 ran 3rd 22/1
02 Apr 23 Downpatrick The Jam Man (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Randox Ulster National Handicap Chase28.5f · Soft · 13 ran PU 5/1
31 Mar 23 Dundalk (AW) Vee Dancer (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle Easter Week Racing 11th & 14th April At Dundalk Handicap (47-65)16f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd EvensF
03 Mar 23 Dundalk (AW) The Jam Man (IRE)J: Mr H C Swan View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium (Q.R.) Handicap16f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 12/1
02 Mar 23 Clonmel Full Noise (IRE)J: Sam Ewing Clonmel Handicap Chase (0-95)23f · Soft · 14 ran 10th 7/2
15 Feb 23 Dundalk (AW) Vee Dancer (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle Dundalk Winter Series Leading Trainer & Jockey Championship Handicap (47-70)16f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 2/1F
18 Jan 23 Dundalk (AW) The Jam Man (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Handicap16f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 18/1
08 Jan 23 Southwell (AW) Dreal Deal (IRE)J: Oisin Orr BetUK Over 40,000 Live Streamed Races Conditions Stakes (All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier)Class 2 · 16.5f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 12/1
02 Jan 23 Ayr The Jam Man (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Golf Inn Prestwick Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24.5f · Heavy · 4 ran 3rd 17/2
21 Dec 22 Dundalk (AW) Dreal Deal (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle William Hill Play Responsibly Handicap (47-75)12f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 11/8F
16 Dec 22 Dundalk (AW) Dreal Deal (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle William Hill Pick Your Places Handicap (47-75)16f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 4/1
03 Dec 22 Aintree The Jam Man (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (National Course) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 26f · Good To Soft · 22 ran PU 33/1
30 Nov 22 Dundalk (AW) Dreal Deal (IRE)J: Colin Keane View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (47-70)12f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 3/1F
13 Oct 22 Curragh Dreal Deal (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle Hollywoodbets.ie Handicap (47-70)12f · Yielding · 18 ran 8th 9/1
11 Oct 22 Punchestown Ithaka (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Paddy Power 'Keep Your Elbows In' Handicap Hurdle (80-102)20.5f · Good · 21 ran 18th 50/1
10 Oct 22 Killarney Vee Dancer (IRE)J: Mark Enright Kenmare Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)11.5f · Soft · 13 ran 4th 9/2
08 Oct 22 Curragh The Jam Man (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Friends Of The Curragh Pollardstown Handicap (60-90)16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 22 ran 19th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Ronan M P McNally's strike rate?
Ronan M P McNally has won 48 of 311 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.4% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ronan M P McNally do best at?
Navan by strike rate: 4 wins from 33 runners (12.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Ronan M P McNally's Fair A/E?
1.34, from 310 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).