Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.73).
Deterministic profile computed from 351 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 4.7%
The read
The record is strongest at Kempton (AW) (10.1%, n=69), clear of the yard's 4.6% baseline. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.68 and −68.00 to a £1 stake over 106 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The record reads poorly on Good going — 1.6% over 61 runners, 3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good to Firm going: Fair A/E 0.35 across 84 runners (2.4% strike, −66.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Ivory Lace (GB) — 8 wins from 105 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.9%−2.7
n=54 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −48.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.1%+6.5
n=9 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −5.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.6
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.6
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.6
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.7%+0.1
n=106 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −68.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.6
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Kempton (AW)10.1% vs 4.6% · n=69
With C&D winners8.5% vs 4.6% · n=106
On Good going1.6% vs 4.6% · n=61
On Good to Firm going2.4% vs 4.6% · n=84
Off a 61-180-day break2.4% vs 4.6% · n=42
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat313165.1%−127.50
Hurdle2000%−20.00
Chase900%−9.00
NH Flat900%−9.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)172116.4%−26.00
Good to Firm8422.4%−66.50
Good6111.6%−50.00
Good to Soft1616.3%−11.00
Soft1100%−11.00
Firm5120%+1.00
Heavy200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW)10243.9%−48.50
Kempton (AW)69710.1%+23.50
Brighton6746%−38.50
Goodwood2913.4%−18.00
Fontwell1800%−18.00
Plumpton1500%−15.00
Lingfield1300%−13.00
Windsor1000%−10.00
Sandown700%−7.00
Salisbury500%−5.00
Newbury300%−3.00
Ascot300%−3.00
Worcester200%−2.00
Epsom200%−2.00
Folkestone200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 615585.2%−65.50
Class 513864.3%−62.50
Class 43812.6%−34.50
Class 710110%+7.00
Class 3700%−7.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite600%0.00−6.00
2nd–3rd fav38615.8%1.09−5.00
4th–6th fav12165%0.67−61.50
7th+ in betting18642.2%0.63−93.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f14574.8%−62.50
1m – 1m1f9033.3%−51.00
1m2f – 1m4f6945.8%−14.50
2m1f – 2m4f1600%−16.00
1m5f – 2m1317.7%−7.00
Over 3m700%−7.00
Under 6f6116.7%−2.50
2m5f – 3m500%−5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20081400%−14.00
200917211.8%−4.00
20103412.9%−23.00
20113412.9%−30.50
20122000%−20.00
20133226.3%−5.00
20143538.6%+2.50
20153313%−16.00
201631412.9%+23.50
20173100%−31.00
20182627.7%−4.00
20191100%−11.00
2020300%−3.00
2021500%−5.00
20221400%−14.00
20231100%−11.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps296165.4%−110.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners13821.4%−120.50
11-13 runners116108.6%−1.50
5-7 runners5911.7%−54.00
14-16 runners3525.7%+10.00
2-4 runners2150%+1.50
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 16 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 16 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive; 8 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard, most often for Rebecca Woodman (3) and Jim & Suzi Best (2); 10 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
5013727034584
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
23
Archived wins
£147k
Prize money
2016
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Ivory Lace (GB) — Peters Opal Handicap Goodwood · Jun 2007 · Class 4
£7,125
Ivory Lace (GB) — totesport 0800 221 221 Brighton Dash Handicap Brighton · Aug 2006 · Class 4
£6,477
Ivory Lace (GB) — GPT Halverton Handicap Newmarket · Aug 2007 · Class 4
Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,801 runs since 2010 (157 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 14.7% from 278. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.3% from 207.
Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,888 runs since 2010 (949 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.
Atraf (GB)1.8% · 1–55
Progeny have won 6.9% of 1,220 runs since 2008 (86 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 11% from 317. Weakest on Good to Firm going: 3.9% from 204. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 10.4% from 135. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.1% from 293.
Elnadim (USA)3.8% · 1–26
Progeny have won 9.8% of 3,353 runs since 2008 (216 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.5% from 108. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.3% from 152.
Alderbrook (GB)0% · 0–24
Progeny have won 9.7% of 3,293 runs since 2008 (299 horses).
Progeny have won 7.2% of 1,523 runs since 2021 (162 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.4% from 144.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 446 · newest first
The latest 50 of 446 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 February 2005 to 18 September 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Steve Woodman's strike rate?
Steve Woodman has won 16 of 351 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.6% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Steve Woodman do best at?
Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 7 wins from 69 runners (10.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Steve Woodman's Fair A/E?
0.73, from 346 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Steve Woodman·SR 4.6%·A/E 0.73
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