What is Tim Vaughan's strike rate?

Tim Vaughan has won 873 of 7,089 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.3% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tim Vaughan do best at?

Southwell by strike rate: 42 wins from 252 runners (16.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Tim Vaughan?

Richard Johnson, with 1,777 runners since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 329 (18.5%).

Is Tim Vaughan in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Tim Vaughan's Fair A/E?

0.93, from 7,076 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Tim Vaughan

7,089 runners in the lifetime window · 969 individual horses

As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Runners today 94% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

873–7,089

Wins / Runs

12.3%

Strike rate

n=7,089

2,184 (31%)

Placed

0.93

Fair A/E

n=7,076 · 0.81 incl. margin

−2,132.08

£1 level stake

n=7,087 at SP · −30.1%

£5.98m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

1.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 370 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93). New recruits from other yards win at 14% first time out (647 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 7,089 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Sep 36.3% when favourite Richard Johnson: 18.5% from 1,777 New recruits: 14.2% Sends off the favourite in 13% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Perth (29.8%, n=84) and Towcester (23.2%, n=99) — all clear of the yard's 12.3% baseline. It is weakest at Cheltenham (2.5% over 197 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 5.8% (n=121, Fair A/E 1.15). The market has consistently overbet a horse in first-time headgear: 7.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.69 and −152.84 to a £1 stake over 291 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Richard Johnson rides 25% of the entries and beats the yard's average (18.5% vs 12.3%, A/E 0.98) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (27.5%, n=193). 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase at Ayr (Apr 2011, £102,618). The stable star of the record: Dovils Date (GB) — 12 wins from 53 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.8%−1.5

n=2,023 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −742.75

New recruits · first run for the yard

14.2%+1.9

n=647 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −235.98

Debutants · first career start

8.5%−3.8

n=328 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −69.02

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.9%−4.4

n=291 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −152.84

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

12.1%−0.2

n=231 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −11.92

When favourite

36.3%

n=957 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −109.87

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.8%−0.5

n=2,353 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −596.76

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

5.8%−6.5

n=121 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −45.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 27.5% vs 12.3% · n=193

At Perth 29.8% vs 12.3% · n=84

On last-time-out winners 21.6% vs 12.3% · n=893

With A P McCoy 25.5% vs 12.3% · n=51

At Cheltenham 2.5% vs 12.3% · n=197

At Towcester 23.2% vs 12.3% · n=99

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 4,153 496 11.9% −1,443.71

Chase 2,017 289 14.3% −410.23

NH Flat 473 50 10.6% −126.06

Flat 446 38 8.5% −152.08

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 2,681 347 12.9% −821.16

Soft 1,369 143 10.4% −381.61

Good to Soft 1,285 134 10.4% −494.29

Good to Firm 810 154 19% −93.68

Heavy 625 68 10.9% −196.63

Standard (AW) 294 21 7.1% −136.41

Firm 25 6 24% −8.30

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ffos Las 613 63 10.3% −246.71

Chepstow 522 41 7.9% −200.77

Uttoxeter 434 49 11.3% −150.16

Worcester 344 46 13.4% −57.65

Newton Abbot 316 47 14.9% −85.27

Stratford 298 43 14.4% −9.18

Market Rasen 271 34 12.5% −121.16

Fontwell 263 39 14.8% −102.53

Southwell 252 42 16.7% −42.64

Taunton 238 26 10.9% −54.87

Hereford 203 21 10.3% −28.27

Ludlow 198 21 10.6% −55.38

Cheltenham 197 5 2.5% −122.25

Bangor-on-Dee 180 26 14.4% −40.65

Plumpton 164 19 11.6% −77.43

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 3,098 409 13.2% −1,053.25

Class 5 2,159 282 13.1% −649.26

Class 3 843 86 10.2% −188.30

Class 6 521 70 13.4% −26.35

Class 2 274 17 6.2% −140.42

Class 1 186 9 4.8% −67.50

Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,107 378 34.1% 1.01 −141.62

2nd–3rd fav 1,825 282 15.5% 0.88 −476.46

4th–6th fav 2,190 163 7.4% 0.92 −466.00

7th+ in betting 1,965 49 2.5% 0.76 −1,048.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 2,278 290 12.7% −778.75

1m5f – 2m 2,112 259 12.3% −600.85

2m5f – 3m 1,926 251 13% −420.51

Over 3m 447 49 11% −195.43

1m2f – 1m4f 210 14 6.7% −113.42

1m – 1m1f 69 6 8.7% +6.38

6f – 7f 42 4 9.5% −24.50

Under 6f 5 0 0% −5.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 244 45 18.4% −11.76

2009 537 91 16.9% −131.45

2010 524 91 17.4% −87.41

2011 620 108 17.4% −32.70

2012 668 92 13.8% −203.41

2013 596 57 9.6% −249.13

2014 416 56 13.5% −109.90

2015 442 34 7.7% −261.75

2016 513 64 12.5% −169.72

2017 476 47 9.9% −99.14

2018 363 38 10.5% −84.10

2019 454 60 13.2% −108.67

2020 243 11 4.5% −121.48

2021 247 11 4.5% −171.37

2022 197 24 12.2% −36.03

2023 172 13 7.6% −85.97

2024 147 14 9.5% −42.54

2025 146 16 11% −45.88

2026 84 1 1.2% −79.67

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 4,504 512 11.4% −1,280.34

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,343 259 11.1% −802.66

5-7 runners 1,768 315 17.8% −313.64

11-13 runners 1,716 158 9.2% −516.11

14-16 runners 738 58 7.9% −270.84

2-4 runners 267 77 28.8% −47.83

17+ runners 256 5 2% −181.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.3% completed · 6,170 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 2,017 76.1% 91 63 317 3 9

Hurdle 4,153 86.8% 100 38 395 6 8

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Dovils Date (GB)from Rod Millman 53 12 17 1 Aug 20

Wings Of Smoke (IRE) 46 6 13 26 Jul 18

Bells Of Peterboro (IRE) 42 6 18 27 Jan 26

First Fandango (GB)from J W Hills 38 6 11 21 May 17

Bennachie (IRE) 34 5 12 2 Aug 18

Eva's Oskar (IRE) 33 8 14 3 Apr 25

Trixster (IRE) 33 5 10 28 Apr 23

Bleu Et Noir (GB) 32 4 8 28 Jan 20

Champagne Chaser (GB) 32 4 12 11 Dec 19

Glimpse Of Gold (GB)then Sarah Humphrey 30 3 12 6 Nov 19

Tara Mac (GB)from Keith Dalgleish 30 5 10 14 Jan 19

Louis Ludwig (IRE)from Chris Bealby 30 2 7 1 Nov 16

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 969 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 20 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 29 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from C F Swan (2); 31 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Robbie Llewellyn (2); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 2

Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

71111131515161713121010

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderRichard Johnson

25% of all rides
18.5% SR · A/E 0.98

RiderRWSR£1

Richard Johnson 1,777 329 18.5% −316.67

Alan Johns 1,752 188 10.7% −455.10

Michael Byrne 597 61 10.2% −263.43

Charlie Price 291 26 8.9% −137.14

Dean Coleman 211 28 13.3% −84.52

Richard Killoran 193 31 16.1% −45.38

Mr Tom David 146 14 9.6% −62.62

Aidan Coleman 143 13 9.1% −70.02

Dougie Costello 106 10 9.4% −65.92

David Noonan 105 6 5.7% −80.58

Seamus Durack 85 10 11.8% +28.82

Mr Jason Kiely 76 5 6.6% −26.64

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

886

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£6.03m

Prize money

2011

Best season · 108 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Beshabar (IRE) — Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Ayr · Apr 2011 · Grade 3

£102,618

Saint Are (FR) — John Smith's Sefton Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2011 · Class 1

£56,520

Spirit of Adjisa (IRE) — Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) Punchestown · May 2011 · Grade 1

£49,600

Notable horses

Dovils Date (GB) Eva's Oskar (IRE) Little Shilling (IRE) Wings Of Smoke (IRE) Bells Of Peterboro (IRE) First Fandango (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kayf Tara (GB) 15.7% · 36–229

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,751 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Presenting (GB) 6.7% · 12–178

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Beneficial (GB) 15.2% · 25–164

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,045 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Milan (GB) 10.5% · 13–124

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,867 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

King's Theatre (IRE) 12% · 13–108

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Exit To Nowhere (USA) 15.2% · 16–105

Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,787 runs since 2008 (290 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 155.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 7,179 · newest first

The latest 50 of 7,179 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 16 June 2005 to 2 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Nov 26 Plumpton Calme Olympien (FR)J: David Noonan Final Fence Open 30th November Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 15/2

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Dance Rules (IRE)J: David Noonan Ted Anderson Dixon Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 11 ran 5th 17/2

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Opticality (GB)J: Sean Kirrane bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 40/1

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Double Time (GB)J: Callum Hutchinson Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 8th 28/1

14 Oct 26 Ffos Las Bells Of Ufford (IRE)J: David Noonan Ethical Packaging Novices' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 14/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Golden Maverick (FR)J: Lorcan Murtagh Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 7th 33/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Love Sonnet (IRE)J: David Noonan McCarthy Construction Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 9th 18/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Calme Olympien (FR)J: David Noonan LSL Racing Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 4th 25/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Holeshot (IRE)J: David Noonan Dragonbet Daily Dragonboosts Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 6th 33/1

08 Oct 26 Bath Shakura Sky Zayin (A) (A)J: Mr Laurie Gallacher Spillers ULCA Fibre Handicap Stakes (0-55) - Arab Race10f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 13/2

07 Oct 26 Worcester Rob Farmer (GB)J: Alex Chadwick Step Into Luxury With Purple Granite National Hunt Flat Race (catgory 2 Elimination) (Conditional And Amateur Jockeys) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 9th 33/1

04 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Raging Al (IRE)J: David Noonan F Ball Yellow Bucket Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 9th 28/1

29 Sep 26 Bath Zayin Zikario (A) (A)J: Mr Laurie Gallacher Carbonnetzero Handicap Stakes (Arab Race)10f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 6th 12/1

01 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Zayin Zikario (A)J: Mr Laurie Gallacher Rapido Racing LTD Conditions Arab Stakes8f · Standard · 4 ran 4th 22/1

26 Aug 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Shakura Sky Zayin (A)J: Rhys Clutterbuck Spillers ULCA Power Cubes Handicap Stakes (0-60) - Arab Race8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 12/1

25 Aug 26 Stratford Bells Of Ufford (IRE)J: David Noonan Stratford Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 22f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th 6/1

20 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Double Time (GB)J: Callum Hutchinson Follow @attheraces On X Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 28/1

06 Aug 26 Chepstow Polemon (GB)J: William Carver Wasdell Group Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 7th 200/1

24 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Golden Maverick (FR)J: David Noonan Louise Hall Hen Party Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 80/1

24 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Jack's A Legend (GB)J: Miss Imogen Mathias Craig Reid Retirement Handicap Steeple Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 14 ran 12th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 7 Oct 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0) · to 19 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tim Vaughan's strike rate?: Tim Vaughan has won 873 of 7,089 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.3% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tim Vaughan do best at?: Southwell by strike rate: 42 wins from 252 runners (16.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Tim Vaughan?: Richard Johnson, with 1,777 runners since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 329 (18.5%).
Is Tim Vaughan in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tim Vaughan's Fair A/E?: 0.93, from 7,076 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.