Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.69).
Deterministic profile computed from 565 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceLee Edwards: 4.2% from 96
The read
The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 1.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.59 and −214.38 to a £1 stake over 280 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Lee Edwards rides 17% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.2%, A/E 0.89). The yard also reads well beyond 3m (7.3%, n=55) and off a 0-7-day break (6.3%, n=79).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.7
n=72 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −72.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.7
n=31 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −31.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.7
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.7
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.7
n=42 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −42.00
When favourite
50%
n=6 · A/E 1.72 · £1 +2.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.8%−0.9
n=280 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −214.38
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Beyond 3m7.3% vs 2.7% · n=55
Off a 0-7-day break6.3% vs 2.7% · n=79
On Good to Firm going5.6% vs 2.7% · n=90
Over 1m – 1m1f6.1% vs 2.7% · n=33
At Worcester0% vs 2.7% · n=63
At Wolverhampton (AW)0% vs 2.7% · n=57
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase326103.1%−190.88
Hurdle13221.5%−125.62
Flat9633.1%−67.75
NH Flat1100%−11.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good21620.9%−193.00
Good to Firm9055.6%−34.50
Standard (AW)8633.5%−57.75
Good to Soft7822.6%−63.50
Soft6323.2%−43.50
Heavy2514%+4.00
Firm700%−7.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Worcester6300%−63.00
Cartmel6223.2%−40.00
Wolverhampton (AW)5700%−57.00
Stratford5511.8%−49.00
Southwell4212.4%−36.00
Uttoxeter3600%−36.00
Ludlow3300%−33.00
Towcester2700%−27.00
Southwell (AW)2114.8%+0.00
Bangor-on-Dee17211.8%+1.50
Hereford1516.7%−12.12
Warwick1500%−15.00
Leicester1500%−15.00
Taunton1317.7%+16.00
Newton Abbot10110%−1.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 422373.1%−124.62
Class 519431.5%−164.50
Class 67034.3%−41.75
Class 36723%−53.38
Class 2800%−8.00
Class 7200%−2.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite7342.9%1.52+1.25
2nd–3rd fav4748.5%0.78−16.00
4th–6th fav22473.1%0.76−114.50
7th+ in betting28710.3%0.18−266.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m16531.8%−152.62
2m5f – 3m15731.9%−105.00
2m1f – 2m4f11021.8%−66.00
Over 3m5547.3%−21.88
1m2f – 1m4f3412.9%−13.00
1m – 1m1f3326.1%−25.75
6f – 7f1000%−10.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20085211.9%−41.00
20094500%−45.00
20104924.1%+1.00
201129413.8%+7.62
20124736.4%−32.12
20133825.3%−3.00
20144412.3%−29.00
20152700%−27.00
20163200%−32.00
20173000%−30.00
20184100%−41.00
20193400%−34.00
20202000%−20.00
20212600%−26.00
20222700%−27.00
20232428.3%−16.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps34192.6%−259.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners21362.8%−122.00
8-10 runners16931.8%−150.62
11-13 runners9722.1%−73.25
2-4 runners5247.7%−15.38
14-16 runners2800%−28.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 40 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 40 horses listed, 31 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Evan Williams (5) and Gordon Elliott (3); 9 had their first archived run for this yard.
11 have since run for another yard, most often for Dave Roberts (2) and David Thompson (2); 29 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
633530253200
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
22
Archived wins
£206k
Prize money
2011
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Indian Pipe Dream (IRE) — totepool Cavendish Cup (Handicap Chase) Cartmel · Aug 2011 · Class 3
£7,323
Green Go (GER) — BBC Coventry And Warwickshire Handicap Chase Stratford · Sep 2006 · Class 4
£6,263
Ringsend Rose (IRE) — E.B.F./T.B.A. Free Racing Post Form At totesport.com Mares' Novices' Chase (Qualifier) Chepstow · Feb 2010 · Class 4
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,892 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Pursuit of Love (GB)4.2% · 3–72
Progeny have won 6.7% of 929 runs since 2008 (74 horses).
Indian Ridge (IRE)3.2% · 2–63
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,484 runs since 2008 (142 horses).
Ghazi (USA)0% · 0–29
Progeny have won 7.1% of 85 runs since 2008 (4 horses).
Fair Mix (IRE)0% · 0–24
Progeny have won 7.3% of 2,578 runs since 2008 (251 horses).
Indian Creek (GB)5.3% · 1–19
Progeny have won 5.9% of 85 runs since 2008 (5 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 704 · newest first
The latest 50 of 704 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 19 July 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Aytach Sadik's strike rate?
Aytach Sadik has won 15 of 565 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.7% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Aytach Sadik do best at?
Cartmel by strike rate: 2 wins from 62 runners (3.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Aytach Sadik?
Lee Edwards, with 96 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (4.2%).
What is Aytach Sadik's Fair A/E?
0.69, from 564 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Aytach Sadik·SR 2.7%·A/E 0.69
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