Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04).
Deterministic profile computed from 612 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 10.7%19.1% when favouriteMr D G Lavery: 15.5% from 103Claiming riders: 11%Sends off the favourite in 8% of races
The read
The record is strongest at Downpatrick (15.7%, n=127), clear of the yard's 9.6% baseline. Debutants struggle at 3.9% (n=76, Fair A/E 0.59). Mr D G Lavery rides 17% of the entries and beats the yard's average (15.5% vs 9.6%, A/E 1.35) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (16.7%, n=48). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the I.N.H. Stallion Owners E.B.F. Novice Handicap Hurdle Series Final at Fairyhouse (Apr 2015, £35,750). The stable star of the record: Wither Hills (IRE) — 7 wins from 33 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.7%+1.1
n=150 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −17.24
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.7%−2.9
n=15 · A/E 1.32 · £1 +0.00
Debutants · first career start
3.9%−5.7
n=76 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −54.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
10%+0.4
n=30 · A/E 1.79 · £1 +36.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−9.6
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
When favourite
19.1%
n=47 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −23.21
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
11%+1.4
n=301 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −34.03
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
5.3%−4.3
n=19 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −11.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Downpatrick15.7% vs 9.6% · n=127
Off a 8-14-day break16.7% vs 9.6% · n=48
With Mr D G Lavery15.5% vs 9.6% · n=103
On last-time-out winners15.8% vs 9.6% · n=57
With debutants3.9% vs 9.6% · n=76
With A E Lynch16.7% vs 9.6% · n=30
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle377318.2%−118.36
Chase1031110.7%−31.60
NH Flat881314.8%+39.00
Flat4449.1%−17.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft2192310.5%+18.02
Good1511711.3%−52.62
Heavy12997%−53.11
Good to Soft6734.5%−42.25
Good to Firm31412.9%−4.50
Standard (AW)14321.4%+7.50
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Downpatrick1272015.7%−1.47
Down Royal8067.5%+15.50
Fairyhouse5846.9%−28.50
Navan5048%−11.09
Punchestown4748.5%+25.00
Kilbeggan27311.1%−8.00
Gowran Park27311.1%−18.00
Roscommon1815.6%−3.00
Galway1715.9%−11.00
Limerick17211.8%−6.25
Ballinrobe1500%−15.00
Perth1500%−15.00
Dundalk (AW)14321.4%+7.50
Leopardstown1400%−14.00
Clonmel1218.3%−6.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 12015%−12.00
Class 41317.7%−11.38
Class 25120%−0.50
Class 5500%−5.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 6100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite541222.2%0.83−14.21
2nd–3rd fav1452617.9%1.19−0.25
4th–6th fav184147.6%1.04−69.50
7th+ in betting22973.1%0.99−44.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f259166.2%−130.47
1m5f – 2m2072311.1%−18.24
2m5f – 3m1201613.3%+7.75
1m2f – 1m4f15320%+7.00
Over 3m9111.1%+8.00
1m – 1m1f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20085735.3%−40.75
200940717.5%+4.74
20104137.3%−10.00
201130516.7%+40.50
201236719.4%+22.66
20135658.9%−25.02
2014501122%+18.00
20155623.6%−27.00
201625416%−6.37
20172214.5%−20.47
201810110%−1.00
20193213.1%−26.00
20202913.4%−21.50
20216457.8%+12.25
20223538.6%−19.00
20232900%−29.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps231187.8%−80.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners176179.7%−9.59
17+ runners15185.3%−44.00
11-13 runners1281511.7%−26.38
8-10 runners10198.9%−28.27
5-7 runners52917.3%−17.34
2-4 runners4125%−2.38
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 99 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive; 50 had their first archived run for this yard.
23 have since run for another yard, most often for Henry De Bromhead (3) and Noel C Kelly (2); 37 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
812109149413814410
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
66
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£706k
Prize money
2014
Best season · 11 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Jimmy Two Times (IRE) — I.N.H. Stallion Owners E.B.F. Novice Handicap Hurdle Series Final (Grade B) Fairyhouse · Apr 2015 · Grade B
£35,750
Warne (IRE) — Crabbie's Supporting The Hillsborough Families Fox Hunters' Chase (National Course) Aintree · Apr 2014 · Class 2
£23,984
Chief Oscar (IRE) — Toals Bookmakers Ulster Grand National E.B.F. Handicap Chase (0-130) Downpatrick · Mar 2010
Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,838 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.
Court Cave (IRE)2.6% · 1–38
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,960 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.
Karinga Bay (GB)21.2% · 7–33
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,407 runs since 2008 (315 horses).
Tikkanen (USA)6.1% · 2–33
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,014 runs since 2009 (170 horses).
Bob Back (USA)20% · 6–30
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,724 runs since 2008 (338 horses).
Bach (IRE)21.4% · 6–28
Progeny have won 7.8% of 2,289 runs since 2008 (240 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.7% from 244.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 669 · newest first
The latest 50 of 669 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 January 2005 to 29 December 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is B R Hamilton's strike rate?
B R Hamilton has won 59 of 612 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.6% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does B R Hamilton do best at?
Downpatrick by strike rate: 20 wins from 127 runners (15.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for B R Hamilton?
Mr D G Lavery, with 103 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (15.5%).
What is B R Hamilton's Fair A/E?
1.04, from 612 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
B R Hamilton·SR 9.6%·A/E 1.04
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