What is Chris Bealby's strike rate?

Chris Bealby has won 79 of 864 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Chris Bealby do best at?

Market Rasen by strike rate: 19 wins from 143 runners (13.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Chris Bealby?

Tom Messenger, with 542 runners since 2008 — 63% of the total. That pairing has won 43 (7.9%).

What is Chris Bealby's Fair A/E?

1.08, from 863 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Chris Bealby

864 runners in the lifetime window · 131 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Feb 2021

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

79–864

Wins / Runs

9.1%

Strike rate

n=864

194 (23%)

Placed

1.08

Fair A/E

n=863 · 0.93 incl. margin

−55.04

£1 level stake

n=864 at SP · −6.4%

£466k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 60 runners a season, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.08).

Deterministic profile computed from 864 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 37.5% when favourite Tom Messenger: 7.9% from 542 New recruits: 9.4% Claiming riders: 10.3% Sent off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

It is weakest at Southwell (AW) (2.9% over 34 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 0% (n=34, Fair A/E 0.00). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 10.3% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.26 and +113.87 to a £1 stake over 224 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Tom Messenger rode 63% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.9%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also read well beyond 3m (15.2%, n=46) and in Chase races (13.2%, n=266). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Britannia English Summer National Handicap Chase at Uttoxeter (Jun 2008, £34,206). The stable star of the record was Leyte Gulf (USA) — 6 wins from 54 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.9%−0.2

n=224 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −22.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

9.4%+0.3

n=32 · A/E 1.53 · £1 +12.38

Debutants · first career start

3.7%−5.4

n=81 · A/E 0.64 · £1 +33.75

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−9.1

n=34 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −34.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−9.1

n=24 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −24.00

When favourite

37.5%

n=48 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +13.21

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.3%+1.2

n=224 · A/E 1.26 · £1 +113.87

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

12.5%+3.4

n=8 · A/E 1.64 · £1 +3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With first-time headgear 0% vs 9.1% · n=34

On last-time-out winners 16% vs 9.1% · n=75

With debutants 3.7% vs 9.1% · n=81

Beyond 3m 15.2% vs 9.1% · n=46

In Chase races 13.2% vs 9.1% · n=266

At Southwell (AW) 2.9% vs 9.1% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 373 28 7.5% −140.25

Chase 266 35 13.2% −3.25

Flat 123 10 8.1% −14.29

NH Flat 102 6 5.9% +102.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 337 37 11% +104.12

Good to Soft 158 13 8.2% −1.12

Soft 148 8 5.4% −99.75

Standard (AW) 110 9 8.2% −18.29

Good to Firm 77 8 10.4% −38.50

Heavy 34 4 11.8% −1.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Market Rasen 143 19 13.3% −12.71

Southwell 104 11 10.6% −47.75

Uttoxeter 72 4 5.6% −31.00

Towcester 69 7 10.1% −7.04

Fakenham 52 6 11.5% −14.25

Wolverhampton (AW) 52 6 11.5% −9.04

Huntingdon 44 2 4.5% +61.00

Wetherby 44 4 9.1% −19.50

Southwell (AW) 34 1 2.9% +7.00

Catterick 29 3 10.3% +12.50

Leicester 24 1 4.2% −9.00

Doncaster 18 2 11.1% +83.00

Warwick 18 1 5.6% −15.00

Worcester 14 1 7.1% −7.50

Ludlow 14 1 7.1% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 374 30 8% −115.37

Class 5 246 25 10.2% −103.50

Class 6 129 10 7.8% +62.83

Class 3 91 12 13.2% +47.00

Class 2 12 1 8.3% +55.00

Class 1 11 1 9.1% +0.00

Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 63 21 33.3% 1.31 +15.21

2nd–3rd fav 164 26 15.9% 1.02 −29.75

4th–6th fav 295 20 6.8% 0.92 −95.50

7th+ in betting 342 12 3.5% 1.23 +55.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

81.1% completed · 639 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 266 77.8% 7 10 42 0 0

Hurdle 373 83.4% 4 3 55 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Leyte Gulf (USA)from J E Pease 52 6 23 24 Apr 12

Persian Gates (IRE) 25 5 9 1 Sep 12

Roi De Garde (FR) 23 2 6 29 Apr 13

Ifonlyalfie (GB)then C H G Davies 22 1 8 18 Jun 14

Bennynthejets (IRE) 22 4 9 29 May 12

Chac Du Cadran (FR) 21 3 9 20 May 15

L'eldorado (FR) 21 4 6 10 May 13

Ruaraidh Hugh (IRE)then L J Morgan 19 6 7 31 Jul 16

Rocky Rebel (GB)from Ralph Beckett · then Michael Blake 18 2 5 23 Jul 13

Legendary Hop (GB) 17 2 4 18 Dec 14

The Purchaser (IRE) 16 1 3 8 Oct 15

Sir Lynx (IRE)from M O Cullinane 16 2 5 9 May 15

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 131 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 19 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Jason Ward (2) and Ralph Beckett (2); 41 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for L J Morgan (4); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

83116139154179117

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTom Messenger

63% of all rides
7.9% SR · A/E 0.99

RiderRWSR£1

Tom Messenger 542 43 7.9% −172.37

Adam Wedge 53 2 3.8% +37.00

Dane O'Neill 34 5 14.7% +3.21

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

106

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£698k

Prize money

2011

Best season · 16 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Surface To Air (GB) — Britannia English Summer National Handicap Chase (Listed) Uttoxeter · Jun 2008 · Listed

£34,206

Di Kaprio (FR) — DBS Spring Sales Bumper Standard Open NH Flat Race Doncaster · Mar 2010 · Class 2

£32,607

Moustique de L'Isle (FR) — totesport.com Handicap Chase Bangor-on-Dee · Oct 2006 · Class 3

£13,944

Notable horses

Leyte Gulf (USA) Ruaraidh Hugh (IRE) Moustique de L'Isle (FR) Bennynthejets (IRE) Persian Gates (IRE) L'eldorado (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Cozzene (USA) 11.5% · 6–52

Progeny have won 9% of 498 runs since 2008 (36 horses).

Kapgarde (FR) 9.8% · 4–41

Progeny have won 12.4% of 6,637 runs since 2008 (725 horses).

Beneficial (GB) 18.4% · 7–38

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Anshan (GB) 24.1% · 7–29

Progeny have won 9.6% of 4,216 runs since 2008 (387 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 520.

Samraan (USA) 12% · 3–25

Progeny have won 6.1% of 131 runs since 2008 (23 horses).

Alflora (IRE) 4.2% · 1–24

Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,312 runs since 2008 (535 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,254 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,254 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 3 February 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Feb 21 Warwick Vinnie Lewis (IRE)J: Adam Wedge Willoughby De Broke Open Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 24f · Soft · 17 ran PU 11/1

31 Jul 16 Market Rasen Ruaraidh Hugh (IRE)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien Susan Skinner Birthday Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 4 · 23f · Good · 10 ran 1st 11/1

22 Jul 16 Uttoxeter Lovetohuntgold (GB)J: Richie McLernon Derby Telegraph Mares' Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 6th 200/1

10 Jul 16 Southwell Lovetohuntgold (GB)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien Visit attheraces.com Mares' Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 9th 40/1

10 Jul 16 Southwell Ruaraidh Hugh (IRE)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien HSS Hire Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 16/1

11 Jun 16 Hexham Ruaraidh Hugh (IRE)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien Crossfit Northumbria Marie Curie Daffodil Dash Amateur Riders' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 23.5f · Good · 10 ran 7th 11/1

30 May 16 Huntingdon Benefit Of Luck (IRE)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien New Season Starts On 2nd October Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16f · Good · 6 ran PU 5/1

24 May 16 Southwell Ruaraidh Hugh (IRE)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien Follow At The Races On Twitter Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 14 ran 7th 22/1

10 May 16 Southwell Benefit Of Luck (IRE)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien Gain Horse Feeds Intermediate NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 15.5f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 5/1

09 May 16 Towcester Spring Hill (IRE)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien Towcester Bet Maiden Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 4th 50/1

09 May 16 Towcester Diego Suarez (FR)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien Haygain Hay Steamers Clean Healthy Forage Amateur Riders' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Good · 12 ran 9th 6/1

21 Apr 16 Market Rasen Diego Suarez (FR)J: Trevor Ryan High Definition Racing Uk Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 5th 9/2F

08 Apr 16 Newcastle Diego Suarez (FR)J: Trevor Ryan Atlas Cloud Conditional Jockeys' Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Soft · 11 ran 3rd 6/1

04 Apr 16 Warwick Touch Back (IRE)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien ApolloBet Cashback Specials Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 25f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 11/2

21 Mar 16 Southwell Diego Suarez (FR)J: Tom Messenger At The Races Sky 415 Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 12 ran 6th 7/1

19 Mar 16 Newcastle Touch Back (IRE)J: Ryan Day Mtrec Recruitment - Specialists In Industrial Recruitment Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 24f · Heavy · 9 ran 1st 15/2

18 Mar 16 Fakenham Wings Attract (IRE)J: Tom Messenger Prince Carlton Handicap Chase (For The Prince Carlton Challenge Cup)Class 3 · 24f · Good · 6 ran 1st 3/1

09 Mar 16 Catterick Fire (IRE)J: Tom Messenger Racing Uk In Glorious Hd Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 15.5f · Soft · 6 ran PU 10/1

07 Mar 16 Southwell Touch Back (IRE)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien At The Races Sky 415 Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24f · Heavy · 5 ran 1st 4/1

05 Mar 16 Doncaster Spring Hill (IRE)J: Mr Tommie M O'Brien BetBright #RealFansOnly Standard NH Flat Race (Conditionals And Amateurs)Class 6 · 16.5f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Chris Bealby's strike rate?: Chris Bealby has won 79 of 864 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Chris Bealby do best at?: Market Rasen by strike rate: 19 wins from 143 runners (13.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Chris Bealby?: Tom Messenger, with 542 runners since 2008 — 63% of the total. That pairing has won 43 (7.9%).
What is Chris Bealby's Fair A/E?: 1.08, from 863 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.