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Trainer profile

David Harry Kelly

1,711 runners in the lifetime window · 288 individual horses
As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Runners today
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
98–1,711
Wins / Runs
5.7%
Strike rate
n=1,711
374 (22%)
Placed
0.84
Fair A/E
n=1,711 · 0.67 incl. margin
−775.76
£1 level stake
n=1,711 at SP · −45.3%
£1.48m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 90 runners a season, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.84). New recruits from other yards win at 8% first time out (79 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,711 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance 28.6% when favourite Sean Flanagan: 5.4% from 427 New recruits: 7.6% Sends off the favourite in 4% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Down Royal (12.8%, n=39), Naas (12.1%, n=58) and Tramore (11.1%, n=81) — all clear of the yard's 5.7% baseline. It is weakest at Listowel (0% over 61 runners) — the widest gap in the record. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.71 and −196.00 to a £1 stake over 342 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Sean Flanagan rides 25% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5.4%, A/E 0.73). The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 0% over 55 runners, 5.7pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Galway Shopping Centre Handicap Hurdle at Galway (Aug 2019, £70,800).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.1%−1.6
n=342 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −196.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
7.6%+1.9
n=79 · A/E 1.61 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
4.7%−1.0
n=211 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −60.25
First-time headgear · true-first definition
4.7%−1.0
n=127 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −34.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.9%+1.2
n=58 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +0.50
When favourite
28.6%
n=63 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −14.01
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.7%+0.0
n=703 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −298.17
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
5.1%−0.6
n=59 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −26.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Brian Hayes 20.5% vs 5.7% · n=39
At Down Royal 12.8% vs 5.7% · n=39
At Naas 12.1% vs 5.7% · n=58
At Tramore 11.1% vs 5.7% · n=81
At Listowel 0% vs 5.7% · n=61
Over 6f – 7f 0% vs 5.7% · n=55
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 1,014 62 6.1% −421.64
Flat 276 9 3.3% −180.00
Chase 244 10 4.1% −157.87
NH Flat 177 17 9.6% −16.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 614 36 5.9% −263.83
Soft 466 25 5.4% −168.50
Heavy 291 17 5.8% −181.53
Good to Soft 200 14 7% −57.90
Good to Firm 99 6 6.1% −63.00
Standard (AW) 40 0 0% −40.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Limerick 167 11 6.6% −98.38
Cork 164 9 5.5% −98.45
Clonmel 117 5 4.3% −84.25
Punchestown 112 5 4.5% −51.43
Killarney 95 9 9.5% −31.00
Wexford 85 5 5.9% +17.75
Fairyhouse 83 6 7.2% −23.76
Tramore 81 9 11.1% +4.88
Tipperary 67 2 3% −49.00
Gowran Park 67 2 3% −46.50
Thurles 65 2 3.1% −53.50
Listowel 61 0 0% −61.00
Kilbeggan 59 4 6.8% +16.53
Naas 58 7 12.1% +21.10
Ballinrobe 53 2 3.8% −32.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 56 3 5.4% −23.00
Class 6 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 5 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 78 18 23.1% 0.86 −29.01
2nd–3rd fav 259 28 10.8% 0.73 −111.25
4th–6th fav 523 36 6.9% 1.04 −154.50
7th+ in betting 851 16 1.9% 0.72 −481.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
86% completed · 1,258 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 244 77.9% 16 10 26 2 0
Hurdle 1,014 88% 26 14 77 2 3
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Corkbeg (IRE) 34 2 6 28 Aug 26
Hard Target (IRE) 32 1 9 25 Oct 25
Nelson Muntz (IRE) 30 2 9 8 Nov 26
Great Trango (IRE)from J Halley 30 3 13 11 May 21
Kiera Royale (IRE)then David Rees 27 0 9 22 Apr 19
Padraig's Joy (IRE) 27 2 7 7 Aug 17
Walk In Time (IRE) 25 1 3 6 Aug 25
Twiss's Hill (IRE) 23 2 8 12 Apr 18
Louiescall (IRE)from Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero 22 2 9 1 Oct 26
Springbelle (IRE) 22 0 5 23 Jun 17
Railway Zira (IRE) 22 4 7 1 Oct 15
Glance Of Doon (IRE) 21 1 2 23 Jul 16
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 288 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 17 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J Halley (3) and Michael J Bowe (2); 43 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard; 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 6
Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
856584774554
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderSean Flanagan
25% of all rides
5.4% SR · A/E 0.73
RiderRWSR£1
Sean Flanagan 427 23 5.4% −228.65
Mr P A King 137 12 8.8% −17.25
Cian Quirke 123 12 9.8% +11.86
Patrick Corbett 86 3 3.5% −52.00
Phillip Enright 47 2 4.3% −28.50
Brian Hayes 39 8 20.5% +61.95
Conor Hoban 30 3 10% −2.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→
98
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£1.48m
Prize money
2026
Best season · 15 wins
Great Trango (IRE) — Galway Shopping Centre Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) Galway · Aug 2019 · Grade B
£70,800
Montagne D'argent (IRE) — Holden Plant Rentals Shamrock Handicap Chase (Grade B) Gowran Park · Mar 2021 · Grade B
£23,600
Glen Kiln (IRE) — Naas Racecourse Business Club Limestone Lad Hurdle (Grade 3) Naas · Jan 2026 · Grade 3
£22,125
Notable horses
Railway Zira (IRE) Glen Kiln (IRE) Que Pasa (IRE) Great Trango (IRE) Lagostovegas (IRE) The Housekeeper (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Presenting (GB) 1.4% · 1–70
Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.
Oscar (IRE) 7.2% · 5–69
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Westerner (GB) 10.2% · 6–59
Progeny have won 12.2% of 11,867 runs since 2009 (945 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Flemensfirth (USA) 8.6% · 5–58
Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,293 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).
Beneficial (GB) 3.5% · 2–57
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,047 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Canford Cliffs (IRE) 7.8% · 4–51
Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,091 runs since 2015 (314 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 263.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,711 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,711 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 25 May 2012 to 10 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
10 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Glen Kiln (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Irish National Hunt Steeplechase CLG Beginners Steeplechase20f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 5th 5/2
08 Nov 26 Naas (IRE) Nelson Muntz (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle (Listed)Class 1 · 20f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran PU 14/1
05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Nelson Muntz (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Clonmel Oil Service Station Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 7/2
03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Princess Felicia (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Christmas Parties At Fairyhouse December 12th Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 7th 6/1
03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Wolfhill (IRE)J: Brian Hayes William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div II)20f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 7th 18/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Footstepstoglory (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Velo Coffee At The Curragh Maiden12f · Yielding · 19 ran 4th 14/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Roccabaker (IRE)J: Danny Gilligan Clonmel Oil Chase Day November 5th Handicap Steeplechase21f · Good · 15 ran 5th 10/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Beyond Forgiveness (IRE)J: Danny Gilligan Mahon Falls Novice Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 2nd 18/1
14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Hutton Star (IRE)J: Mr P A King Matchbook €50,000 Graduation Series Flat Race16.5f · Good · 11 ran 4th 14/1
13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Beyond Forgiveness (IRE)J: Cian Quirke William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 7th 22/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Vervain (IRE)J: W. J. Lee Thank You For Your Support Handicap12f · Soft · 16 ran 16th 14/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Spider Star (IRE)J: Adam Browne-Souza Roscommon Racecourse (C & G) Maiden7.5f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 125/1
10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Glen Kiln (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Winter Festival Early Bird Tickets On Sale Now Beginners Steeplechase16.5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 4/9F
08 Oct 26 Tramore (IRE) Roll It Roisin (IRE)J: Cian Quirke www.tramoreraces.ie Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 8 ran 5th 16/1
05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Airds Moss (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 10 ran 5th 3/1F
05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) State Pension (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 1st 4/11F
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Footstepstoglory (IRE)J: Daniel King Gortnavogue Ltd. T/A Seamus Weldon Handicap Hurdle17f · Good · 16 ran 1st 5/1
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Mastertown Miss (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 7/2
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Nelson Muntz (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 14 ran 1st 9/2
01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Louiescall (IRE)J: Daniel King Clonmel Novice Handicap Hurdle23f · Good · 6 ran 6th 11/4

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 5 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is David Harry Kelly's strike rate?
David Harry Kelly has won 98 of 1,711 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.7% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Harry Kelly do best at?
Naas by strike rate: 7 wins from 58 runners (12.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for David Harry Kelly?
Sean Flanagan, with 427 runners since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 23 (5.4%).
Is David Harry Kelly in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is David Harry Kelly's Fair A/E?
0.84, from 1,711 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 10 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).