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Trainer profile

Emmet Michael Butterly

139 runners in the lifetime window · 24 individual horses
As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Feb 2017
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2010→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
16–139
Wins / Runs
11.5%
Strike rate
n=139
34 (25%)
Placed
1.14
Fair A/E
n=138 · 0.91 incl. margin
−40.24
£1 level stake
n=139 at SP · −28.9%
£78,272
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.14). With a claiming rider up the record reads 13% (67 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 139 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 9 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 13.4%
The read

It is weakest at Dundalk (AW) (3.3% over 30 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. The yard also read well over 1m5f – 2m (23.3%, n=30) and in Class 6 (19.5%, n=41). The record read poorly off a 15-30-day break — 3.2% over 31 runners, 8.3pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.9%−2.6
n=45 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −4.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
17.4%+5.9
n=23 · A/E 1.71 · £1 +17.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−11.5
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−11.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
33.3%+21.8
n=12 · A/E 3.04 · £1 +10.13
When favourite
40%
n=20 · A/E 1.60 · £1 +3.76
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
13.4%+1.9
n=67 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −18.99
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−11.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m 23.3% vs 11.5% · n=30
In Class 6 19.5% vs 11.5% · n=41
Off a 15-30-day break 3.2% vs 11.5% · n=31
At Dundalk (AW) 3.3% vs 11.5% · n=30
With a new jockey booking 9.2% vs 11.5% · n=87
On Standard (AW) going 13.7% vs 11.5% · n=73
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 89.5% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 92 12 13% −9.99
Hurdle 40 4 10% −23.25
Chase 6 0 0% −6.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 73 10 13.7% −22.99
Good 18 1 5.6% −10.00
Soft 17 0 0% −17.00
Heavy 16 2 12.5% +13.25
Good to Firm 8 1 12.5% −4.50
Good to Soft 5 0 0% −5.00
Firm 2 2 100% +6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 30 1 3.3% −22.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 22 4 18.2% −5.62
Lingfield (AW) 12 3 25% −2.12
Downpatrick 9 1 11.1% −1.00
Kempton (AW) 8 1 12.5% −5.25
Galway 7 0 0% −7.00
Sligo 6 0 0% −6.00
Fairyhouse 6 1 16.7% −2.50
Navan 5 0 0% −5.00
Ballinrobe 5 1 20% −1.75
Kilbeggan 4 0 0% −4.00
Naas 3 0 0% −3.00
Down Royal 2 0 0% −2.00
Punchestown 2 0 0% −2.00
Tramore 2 1 50% +0.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 41 8 19.5% −10.99
Class 5 6 1 16.7% −1.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 22 8 36.4% 1.47 +1.76
2nd–3rd fav 25 4 16% 1.04 −5.00
4th–6th fav 38 3 7.9% 1.02 −9.00
7th+ in betting 54 1 1.9% 0.55 −28.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Brabazon (IRE)from Barry Potts 25 4 6 3 Dec 14
The Informer (IRE)then Seamus Fahey 23 1 9 10 Dec 16
Rock Band (GB)from Richard Hannon Snr 14 0 4 12 Dec 14
Cybersnow (USA)from Seamus Fahey 14 3 3 25 Aug 14
Scary Movie (IRE)from C Moore 10 0 0 31 Oct 14
Bussa (GB)from David Evans · then S J Mahon 6 2 2 10 Sep 15
Echua (IRE)from Seamus Fahey 6 2 4 20 Jan 14
Molans Mare (IRE)from C Moore · then Keith Henry Clarke 5 0 0 3 Feb 17
Goodluck Joey (GB) 4 0 0 9 Feb 17
Mnarani (IRE)from C Moore · then James Evans 4 1 1 21 Oct 11
Crevasse (IRE) 3 0 0 28 Oct 16
Halarath (IRE)from C Moore · then Mark Michael McNiff 3 0 0 22 Apr 16
All 24 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 24 horses listed, 19 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from C Moore (5) and Richard Hannon Snr (2); 5 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard, most often for Keith Henry Clarke (2) and Mark Michael McNiff (2); 16 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1022018908191110147
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Paddy Kennedy 19 0 0% −19.00
Martin Harley 15 3 20% −6.24
Keith Donoghue 13 3 23.1% +0.50
Gary Carroll 8 1 12.5% +18.00
Shane Foley 6 0 0% −6.00
Paul Townend 5 1 20% −1.75
Kevin Sexton 4 0 0% −4.00
Luke Morris 4 1 25% +1.00
Ross Coakley 3 1 33.3% +2.00
Conor Hoban 3 0 0% −3.00
Jamie Spencer 3 2 66.7% +3.50
Christopher Geoghegan 3 1 33.3% +10.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2010→
16
Archived wins
£78,272
Prize money
2011
Best season · 5 wins
Akasaka (IRE) — Christmas Race & Dine Packages Handicap Dundalk (AW) · Dec 2014
£10,350
Cybersnow (USA) — Itba & Gain Horse Feeds Encourage Breeders To Go Racing Handicap Hurdle (88-116) Fairyhouse · Oct 2010
£7,245
Jeremys Joy (IRE) — Bulmers Live At Leopardstown Handicap (47-75) Leopardstown · Apr 2016
£6,458
Notable horses
Brabazon (IRE) Cybersnow (USA) Bussa (GB) Echua (IRE) The Informer (IRE) Mnarani (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Royal Anthem (USA) 10.8% · 4–37
Progeny have won 9.9% of 1,350 runs since 2008 (115 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.9% from 529.
In The Wings (GB) 16% · 4–25
Progeny have won 8.7% of 1,518 runs since 2008 (110 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13% from 231. Weakest on Heavy going: 4.4% from 114.
Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,568 runs since 2008 (872 horses).
Daggers Drawn (USA) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,030 runs since 2008 (97 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 2.3% from 132.
King's Best (USA) 33.3% · 3–9
Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.
Iceman (GB) 33.3% · 2–6
Progeny have won 8.1% of 2,215 runs since 2010 (119 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 206. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 4.4% from 137.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 139 · newest first

The latest 50 of 139 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 August 2010 to 9 February 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
09 Feb 17 Lingfield (AW) Goodluck Joey (GB)J: Luke Morris sunbets.co.uk HandicapClass 7 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran RR 10/1
03 Feb 17 Dundalk (AW) Molans Mare (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy Crowne Plaza Hotel, Dundalk Handicap (45-65) (Div 1)6f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 33/1
16 Dec 16 Dundalk (AW) Molans Mare (IRE)J: Rossa Ryan Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (45-65)6f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 66/1
10 Dec 16 Navan The Informer (IRE)J: Paddy Kennedy Drogheda Handicap Hurdle (80-109)22f · Yielding To Soft · 22 ran 15th 16/1
22 Nov 16 Wexford The Informer (IRE)J: Paddy Kennedy Selskar Handicap Chase (0-95)25.5f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran PU 6/1
31 Oct 16 Galway The Informer (IRE)J: Paddy Kennedy Corrib Food Products Handicap Chase (0-102)22.5f · Yielding · 16 ran 3rd 20/1
28 Oct 16 Dundalk (AW) Goodluck Joey (GB)J: Martin Harley Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Median Auction Maiden (Plus 10)8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 100/1
28 Oct 16 Dundalk (AW) Crevasse (IRE)J: Martin Harley Floodlit Friday Nights At Dundalk Maiden6f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 66/1
12 Oct 16 Punchestown The Informer (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Coral.ie Download The App Handicap Chase22f · Good · 12 ran 9th 8/1
28 Sep 16 Sligo The Informer (IRE)J: Paddy Kennedy Sligo Races Supporters Club Beginners Chase20f · Heavy · 8 ran 6th 10/1
20 Sep 16 Ballinrobe The Informer (IRE)J: Paddy Kennedy Connacht Tribune Beginners Chase17f · Soft · 12 ran 10th 40/1
17 Jul 16 Tipperary The Informer (IRE)J: Paddy Kennedy Follow tipperaryraces On Twitter Beginners Chase20f · Good · 16 ran F 10/1
20 Jun 16 Kilbeggan The Informer (IRE)J: Paddy Kennedy Hurley Family Handicap Hurdle (80-95)24.5f · Good · 16 ran 3rd 4/1
14 Jun 16 Roscommon The Informer (IRE)J: Davy Russell Best Odds Guaranteed At 188BET Handicap Hurdle (80-109)24.5f · Soft · 17 ran 2nd 8/1
05 Jun 16 Kilbeggan The Informer (IRE)J: Davy Russell Kilbeggan Handicap Hurdle (80-102)24.5f · Good · 11 ran F 9/4F
20 May 16 Downpatrick The Informer (IRE)J: Davy Russell Downpatricks Looking Good Handicap Hurdle (80-95)22f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 9/2
18 May 16 Dundalk (AW) Goodluck Joey (GB)J: Conor Hoban Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Auction Maiden5f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 20/1
22 Apr 16 Dundalk (AW) Halarath (IRE)J: Robbie Downey 188bet Horse Racing Charter Apprentice Handicap (47-65)12f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 20/1
17 Apr 16 Navan Jeremys Joy (IRE)J: Gary Carroll Heritage Stakes (Listed)8f · Soft To Heavy · 9 ran 9th 14/1
09 Apr 16 Gowran Park Halarath (IRE)J: Shane Foley Racings Best Offer 19 Silver Package Handicap (47-65)9.5f · Heavy · 15 ran 12th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Emmet Michael Butterly's strike rate?
Emmet Michael Butterly has won 16 of 139 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.5% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Emmet Michael Butterly do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 30 runners (3.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Emmet Michael Butterly's Fair A/E?
1.14, from 138 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 9 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).