Jonathan Sweeney
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 18% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.32).
It is weakest at Cork (6.3% over 32 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 10.9% (n=64, Fair A/E 0.95). The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (23%, n=74) and on Good to Soft going (22.7%, n=44). The market has also underrated the yard off a 31-60-day break: Fair A/E 1.54 across 70 runners (21.4% strike, +4.86 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 7.5% over 40 runners, 10.1pts below the baseline. 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final at Navan (Mar 2026, £35,340).
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 17.6% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 17.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, lifetimeJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2013→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 244 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 244 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 April 2013 to 17 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Jonathan Sweeney's strike rate?
- Jonathan Sweeney has won 43 of 244 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 17.6% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Jonathan Sweeney do best at?
- Punchestown by strike rate: 5 wins from 34 runners (14.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Is Jonathan Sweeney in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Jonathan Sweeney's Fair A/E?
- 1.32, from 244 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.