Skip to content
Trainer profile

Liam Roche

176 runners in the lifetime window · 25 individual horses
As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jul 2023
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
8–176
Wins / Runs
4.5%
Strike rate
n=176
23 (13%)
Placed
0.78
Fair A/E
n=176 · 0.60 incl. margin
−97.50
£1 level stake
n=176 at SP · −55.4%
£112k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.78). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 7% off breaks of two months or more (55 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 176 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 7.3%
The read

The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (9.7%, n=31) and over 1m – 1m1f (8.5%, n=59). The record reads poorly off a 31-60-day break — 0% over 31 runners, 4.5pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Billyford (IRE) — 7 wins from 52 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.3%+2.8
n=55 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −1.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.5
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.5
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.5
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4%−0.5
n=50 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −32.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.5
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With C&D winners 10% vs 4.5% · n=30
Off a 8-14-day break 9.7% vs 4.5% · n=31
Over 1m – 1m1f 8.5% vs 4.5% · n=59
Off a 31-60-day break 0% vs 4.5% · n=31
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 0% vs 4.5% · n=30
At Dundalk (AW) 6.7% vs 4.5% · n=60
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 145 8 5.5% −66.50
Hurdle 26 0 0% −26.00
Chase 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 60 4 6.7% −41.00
Good 36 2 5.6% +9.00
Soft 29 0 0% −29.00
Heavy 21 1 4.8% −14.50
Good to Firm 15 0 0% −15.00
Good to Soft 15 1 6.7% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 60 4 6.7% −41.00
Curragh 21 1 4.8% −14.50
Navan 14 0 0% −14.00
Leopardstown 8 0 0% −8.00
Thurles 8 0 0% −8.00
Fairyhouse 8 0 0% −8.00
Roscommon 7 0 0% −7.00
Cork 6 0 0% −6.00
Naas 6 0 0% −6.00
Listowel 5 1 20% +6.00
Gowran Park 4 0 0% −4.00
Killarney 4 1 25% +30.00
Wexford 4 1 25% +4.00
Clonmel 3 0 0% −3.00
Tralee 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 5 1 20% 0.81 −2.00
2nd–3rd fav 20 4 20% 1.35 +2.50
4th–6th fav 38 2 5.3% 0.69 −19.00
7th+ in betting 113 1 0.9% 0.31 −79.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Billyford (IRE) 44 4 7 18 Aug 17
Duc D'Anjou (IRE) 17 0 1 20 Feb 14
Cathrine De Medici (IRE) 15 0 3 29 Aug 14
Lightening Stricks (IRE)from M J Tynan 14 2 6 30 Aug 17
Badger Or Bust (IRE)then Francis Ennis 9 1 3 30 Sep 08
Mrs Diniver (IRE) 8 0 1 24 Nov 11
Celtic Warrior (IRE)then John Harris 8 0 0 1 Oct 08
Mr Smiley (IRE) 7 0 0 20 Sep 08
Black Smoke (IRE)then Brian Barr 6 0 0 6 Jul 23
Reward Of Faith (IRE) 6 0 0 30 Nov 13
Thomas Moore (IRE) 6 0 0 20 Nov 13
Cheval De La Reine (GB) 5 0 0 26 Aug 08
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 25 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 21 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard, most often for Rodney Farrant (2); 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1401701460000017
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Francisco Da Silva 11 0 0% −11.00
Dylan Hogan 10 1 10% +1.00
Fran Berry 10 1 10% −6.50
Keagan Latham 8 0 0% −8.00
Martin Harley 8 1 12.5% −1.50
Fergal Lynch 7 0 0% −7.00
N G McCullagh 7 1 14.3% +27.00
Declan McDonogh 7 1 14.3% −2.00
A E Lynch 7 0 0% −7.00
Johnny Murtagh 7 2 28.6% +3.50
Andrew P Thornton 6 0 0% −6.00
Pat Smullen 6 1 16.7% +2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
19
Archived wins
£311k
Prize money
2007
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Celtic Warrior (IRE) — Premier Nursery Handicap Leopardstown · Nov 2005
£32,550
Billyford (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms Ebf Premier Nursery Dundalk (AW) · Sep 2007
£26,040
Badger Or Bust (IRE) — Ladbrokes 271 Shops Madrid Handicap Curragh · Mar 2008
£21,809
Notable horses
Billyford (IRE) Celtic Warrior (IRE) Lightening Stricks (IRE) Add Wings (IRE) Holbien (IRE) Mr Smiley (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Lil's Boy (USA) 9.1% · 4–44
Progeny have won 6.2% of 401 runs since 2008 (48 horses).
Frenchmans Bay (FR) 0% · 0–17
Progeny have won 2.6% of 117 runs since 2008 (11 horses).
Raise A Grand (IRE) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 7.5% of 811 runs since 2008 (50 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.9% from 115.
King's Best (USA) 14.3% · 2–14
Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.
Celtic Swing (GB) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,248 runs since 2008 (160 horses).
Orpen (USA) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 9% of 4,038 runs since 2008 (381 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.4% from 113.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 366 · newest first

The latest 50 of 366 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 August 2005 to 6 July 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Jul 23 Bellewstown Black Smoke (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy Peadar Kearney's Pub Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)8f · Yielding · 15 ran 15th 66/1
11 Jun 23 Navan Black Smoke (IRE)J: Wayne Hassett Cusack Hotel Group Family Raceday July 15th Handicap (47-65)10f · Good · 17 ran 16th 66/1
16 May 23 Killarney Black Smoke (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy Fexco Maiden8f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 7th 250/1
06 Apr 23 Bellewstown Black Smoke (IRE)J: Mikey Sheehy Compas Stallions Maiden12f · Heavy · 12 ran 9th 200/1
18 Mar 23 Thurles Black Smoke (IRE)J: Niall Moore Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 16 ran F 250/1
08 Jun 22 Cork Jenoow (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Hot House Flowers Play July 8th Handicap (47-65)7f · Good · 24 ran 19th 66/1
04 Jun 22 Listowel Desiderius Erasmus (IRE)J: Shane Crosse Happy Birthday To The Snitch Maiden8f · Good · 13 ran 13th 100/1
04 Jun 22 Listowel Black Smoke (IRE)J: Mikey Sheehy Happy Birthday To The Snitch Maiden8f · Good · 13 ran 11th 50/1
04 Jun 22 Listowel Jenoow (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Shay Rooney Handicap (47-75) (Div 1)7f · Good · 12 ran 11th 150/1
04 May 22 Gowran Park Jenoow (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Save 33% Buying Tickets Online Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)8f · Yielding · 16 ran 15th 20/1
26 Jan 18 Dundalk (AW) Leath Na Hoibre (IRE)J: Sean Corby Horseware Ireland Handicap (45-65) (Div 2)7f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 6/1
08 Dec 17 Dundalk (AW) Leath Na Hoibre (IRE)J: Sean Corby Dundalk Stadium - Light Up Your Night Apprentice Handicap (45-65) (Div 1)7f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 25/1
24 Nov 17 Dundalk (AW) Dame Rochford (IRE)J: Gary Halpin Dundalk Stadium Business Club 2018 Fillies Maiden8f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 100/1
20 Sep 17 Fairyhouse Dame Rochford (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Next Racing At Fairyhouse The Return Of The Jumps October 7th Maiden7f · Soft To Heavy · 17 ran 14th 66/1
30 Aug 17 Bellewstown Lightening Stricks (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Eva-Tec Ltd Handicap (45-65) (Div 2)8f · Good · 16 ran 16th 8/1
28 Aug 17 Roscommon Dame Rochford (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Abbey Hotel Roscommon Maiden10f · Heavy · 12 ran 11th 66/1
18 Aug 17 Dundalk (AW) Billyford (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Bar One Racing Double The Odds Goalscorer Special Apprentice Handicap (45-65)8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 16/1
04 Jun 17 Listowel Lightening Stricks (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan St. John's Literary Centre Handicap (45-65) (Div 2)8f · Good · 15 ran 1st 10/1
18 Nov 16 Dundalk (AW) Billyford (IRE)J: Mark Gallagher Ireland V England Stable Staff Soccer Match 2016 (Newmarket) Handicap (45-65)8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 16/1
28 Oct 16 Dundalk (AW) Billyford (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Crowne Plaza Leading Jockey & Trainer Championship Handicap (45-65) (Div 2)8f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Liam Roche's strike rate?
Liam Roche has won 8 of 176 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.5% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Liam Roche do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 60 runners (6.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Liam Roche's Fair A/E?
0.78, from 176 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 30 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).