What is Michael Bell's strike rate?

Michael Bell has won 925 of 7,134 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Michael Bell do best at?

Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 90 wins from 524 runners (17.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Michael Bell?

Hayley Turner, with 1,099 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 148 (13.5%).

Is Michael Bell in form?

In the last 14 days: 18 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 13% since 2008.

What is Michael Bell's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 7,102 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Michael Bell

7,134 runners in the lifetime window · 982 individual horses

As at 27 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 5.8% of 365 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 27 Oct 2026.

Last runner yesterday 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

925–7,134

Wins / Runs

13%

Strike rate

n=7,134

2,367 (33%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=7,102 · 0.84 incl. margin

−1,772.37

£1 level stake

n=7,134 at SP · −24.8%

£14.4m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

10.9%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 380 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 13% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). The yard is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 7,134 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 27 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Apr Fresh horses: 14.1% 35.2% when favourite Hayley Turner: 13.5% from 1,099 Sends off the favourite in 15% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Catterick (28.2%, n=71), clear of the yard's 13% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 5.6% (n=54, Fair A/E 0.37). The market has consistently overbet debutants: 6.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.84 and −311.33 to a £1 stake over 837 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 0 from 18 runners in the last 14 days (0%, 13pts below the 13% baseline). Hayley Turner rides 15% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (13.5%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 60 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Vodafone Derby Stakes at Epsom Downs (Jun 2005, £725,000). The stable star of the record: True Courage (GB) — 9 wins from 42 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

14.1%+1.1

n=992 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −140.75

New recruits · first run for the yard

12%−1.0

n=108 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −31.10

Debutants · first career start

6.6%−6.4

n=837 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −311.33

First-time headgear · true-first definition

10.9%−2.1

n=341 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −95.91

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.6%−7.4

n=54 · A/E 0.37 · £1 −31.23

When favourite

35.2%

n=1,056 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −82.53

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

12.1%−0.9

n=1,117 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −365.99

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9.8%−3.2

n=478 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −94.53

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Catterick 28.2% vs 13% · n=71

With Hector Crouch 21.2% vs 13% · n=306

With debutants 6.6% vs 13% · n=837

On last-time-out winners 19.3% vs 13% · n=883

With Oisin Murphy 21.3% vs 13% · n=127

With William Carson 2.4% vs 13% · n=42

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 7,082 914 12.9% −1,765.32

Hurdle 49 10 20.4% −7.30

NH Flat 3 1 33.3% +0.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 2,117 297 14% −345.30

Good to Firm 1,741 232 13.3% −430.56

Good 1,565 198 12.7% −365.46

Good to Soft 801 87 10.9% −328.37

Soft 697 88 12.6% −220.57

Heavy 144 12 8.3% −56.38

Firm 69 11 15.9% −25.73

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 532 54 10.2% −152.45

Wolverhampton (AW) 524 90 17.2% −3.65

Yarmouth 502 81 16.1% −80.37

Chelmsford (AW) 387 64 16.5% −16.68

Lingfield (AW) 377 56 14.9% −58.89

Newmarket 367 28 7.6% −151.86

Newmarket 356 24 6.7% −171.18

Ascot 293 27 9.2% −33.84

Windsor 279 35 12.5% −92.47

Doncaster 278 33 11.9% −57.25

Nottingham 273 31 11.4% −104.73

Leicester 236 29 12.3% −89.26

Southwell (AW) 193 27 14% −33.96

Newbury 191 17 8.9% −76.70

Haydock 188 28 14.9% −55.43

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 2,480 337 13.6% −683.80

Class 4 1,739 235 13.5% −343.28

Class 6 1,107 162 14.6% −312.75

Class 2 702 62 8.8% −217.77

Class 3 612 78 12.7% −129.34

Class 1 478 47 9.8% −94.53

Class 7 8 2 25% +1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,205 406 33.7% 1.07 −95.22

2nd–3rd fav 1,900 309 16.3% 0.95 −378.35

4th–6th fav 2,237 157 7% 0.86 −650.00

7th+ in betting 1,792 53 3% 0.85 −648.80

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 2,468 289 11.7% −656.26

1m2f – 1m4f 1,900 269 14.2% −409.35

1m – 1m1f 1,685 192 11.4% −475.78

1m5f – 2m 522 88 16.9% −78.10

Under 6f 522 83 15.9% −129.66

2m1f – 2m4f 35 4 11.4% −21.22

2m5f – 3m 2 0 0% −2.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 494 75 15.2% −42.68

2009 379 49 12.9% −98.12

2010 414 56 13.5% −101.17

2011 332 45 13.6% −85.16

2012 436 53 12.2% −95.89

2013 486 52 10.7% −202.76

2014 367 44 12% −120.44

2015 372 42 11.3% −59.83

2016 336 42 12.5% −123.57

2017 347 53 15.3% −74.34

2018 385 59 15.3% −69.43

2019 364 48 13.2% −21.45

2020 282 25 8.9% −118.21

2021 346 53 15.3% −59.51

2022 337 39 11.6% −166.52

2023 394 49 12.4% −101.83

2024 389 53 13.6% −83.74

2025 354 53 15% +0.23

2026 320 35 10.9% −147.95

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 4,048 540 13.3% −822.75

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,452 305 12.4% −537.30

11-13 runners 1,919 172 9% −668.73

5-7 runners 1,575 324 20.6% −236.39

14-16 runners 730 59 8.1% −223.62

17+ runners 298 19 6.4% −106.63

2-4 runners 160 46 28.8% +0.30

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Stone Circle (IRE) 55 8 16 30 Oct 24

True Courage (GB) 42 9 14 3 Jan 25

Allied Powers (IRE) 38 8 17 14 Sep 13

Graceland (FR)then Donald McCain 36 3 16 17 Oct 18

Miss Harmony (GB)then David Evans 34 3 7 14 Oct 24

George Cinq (GB)then George Scott 34 4 15 2 Oct 15

Geetanjali (IRE) 31 7 14 1 Sep 20

Adjuvant (IRE) 30 4 8 5 Jun 26

The Betchworth Kid (GB) 30 4 11 2 Oct 13

Duke Of Oxford (GB) 29 8 13 19 Aug 26

Brave Nation (IRE)then Michael Attwater 29 3 9 11 Apr 26

Fire Brigade (GB) 28 5 13 13 Apr 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 982 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 15 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 56 had their first archived run for this yard.

25 have since run for another yard; 35 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

0 from 18 0% · −13.0pts vs baseline

Last 14 days0%

Lifetime base13%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

192219141311151510101013

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderHayley Turner

15% of all rides
13.5% SR · A/E 1.04

RiderRWSR£1

Hayley Turner 1,099 148 13.5% −162.38

Jamie Spencer 907 143 15.8% −229.67

Louis Steward 369 42 11.4% −145.74

Hector Crouch 306 65 21.2% +17.07

Callum Shepherd 287 29 10.1% −95.09

Tom Queally 228 26 11.4% +52.69

Dylan Hogan 201 24 11.9% −66.33

Luke Morris 138 17 12.3% −18.00

Oisin Murphy 127 27 21.3% −16.35

Kieran Shoemark 122 16 13.1% −13.95

William Twiston-Davies 112 14 12.5% +34.66

Cameron Noble 100 17 17% −15.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,058

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£17.6m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 75 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Motivator (GB) — Vodafone Derby Stakes (Group 1) Epsom Downs · Jun 2005 · Group 1

£725,000

Sariska (GB) — Darley Irish Oaks (group 1) Curragh · Jul 2009 · Group 1

£280,500

Art Connoisseur (IRE) — Golden Jubilee Stakes (Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Ascot · Jun 2009 · Group 1

£278,457

Notable horses

True Courage (GB) Big Orange (GB) Red Evie (IRE) Stone Circle (IRE) Allied Powers (IRE) Duke Of Oxford (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 18.5% · 33–178

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,030 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Oasis Dream (GB) 12.7% · 21–165

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,011 runs since 2008 (1,510 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 483. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.

Cape Cross (IRE) 12.6% · 14–111

Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.

Motivator (GB) 12.6% · 14–111

Progeny have won 12.1% of 5,584 runs since 2008 (512 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 16% from 1,084. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.8% from 1,280. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.2% from 591. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.7% from 574.

No Nay Never (USA) 12.9% · 13–101

Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,333 runs since 2008 (707 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9% from 612. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.6% from 185.

Kodiac (GB) 16.3% · 16–98

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,559 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,157 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,157 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 26 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

26 Oct 26 Leicester Good Onya Mate (IRE)J: Mr Jack Lander Aja Novice Flat Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Riders With 3 Wins Or Fewer At Start Of Season)Class 6 · 12f · Soft · 13 ran 4th 13/2

24 Oct 26 Doncaster A Major Payne (GB)J: Oisin Murphy William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 10f · Heavy · 14 ran 12th 16/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Stoney Wood (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 6/5F

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Kameo Roll (GB)J: Callum Shepherd All Weather Championship Is Back Ebf Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8.5f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 22/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Ballybunion (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd January 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 9/2

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Mehen (GB)J: Oisin Murphy Unibet/british Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 6th 25/1

21 Oct 26 Newmarket Akaraka (GB)J: Ryan Moore British Stallion Studs Ebf Future Stayers Nursery Handicap Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 10f · Soft · 6 ran 3rd 4/1

20 Oct 26 Yarmouth Koffee And Kale (GB)J: Billy Loughnane Brandford Restaurants & Bar Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 5/2F

20 Oct 26 Yarmouth Oliaku (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Graham & Alison's 15th Wedding Aniversary Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 5f · Soft · 6 ran 5th 6/5F

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Ballybunion (IRE)J: Callum Shepherd bettingsites.co.uk New Betting Sites Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 3/1F

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Louis The Fifth (IRE)J: Callum Shepherd bettingsites.co.uk Free Bets Offers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 12/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Go Lockers Go (GB)J: Callum Shepherd bettingsites.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 17/2

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Moriarty Moon (GB)J: Oisin Orr Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 8/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Gold Star Hero (IRE)J: Jason Hart William Hill Catterick Dash Handicap StakesClass 2 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 7/2

16 Oct 26 Haydock Resemblance (IRE)J: Hector Crouch Vantage Consulting Powered By Requidex Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Heavy · 9 ran 3rd 6/4F

16 Oct 26 Haydock Top Of The World (IRE)J: Hector Crouch British Stallion Studs Future Stayers EBF Maiden Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 8f · Heavy · 6 ran 3rd 18/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Rajeko (IRE)J: Hector Crouch Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 12/1

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Let's Dream (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 10f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 7th 125/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Mr Bollinger (USA)J: Hector Crouch Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 6 ran 5th 7/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Heavenly Parole (GB)J: Billy Loughnane Juddmonte EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 3rd 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael Bell's strike rate?: Michael Bell has won 925 of 7,134 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Bell do best at?: Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 90 wins from 524 runners (17.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Michael Bell?: Hayley Turner, with 1,099 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 148 (13.5%).
Is Michael Bell in form?: In the last 14 days: 18 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 13% since 2008.
What is Michael Bell's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 7,102 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.