What is Ollie Pears's strike rate?

Ollie Pears has won 278 of 3,295 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Ollie Pears do best at?

Newcastle by strike rate: 11 wins from 71 runners (15.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Ollie Pears?

Jacob Butterfield, with 310 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 37 (11.9%).

What is Ollie Pears's Fair A/E?

0.88, from 3,274 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Ollie Pears

3,295 runners in the lifetime window · 348 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 16 days ago 96% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

278–3,295

Wins / Runs

8.4%

Strike rate

n=3,295

867 (26%)

Placed

0.88

Fair A/E

n=3,274 · 0.76 incl. margin

−1,069.44

£1 level stake

n=3,295 at SP · −32.5%

£1.94m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 170 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.88). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 11% (99 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,295 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Sep 25.9% when favourite Jacob Butterfield: 11.9% from 310 Headgear returns: 11.1% Claiming riders: 10.9% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Newcastle (15.5%, n=71), clear of the yard's 8.4% baseline. It is weakest at Doncaster (1.3% over 77 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 3.1% (n=224, Fair A/E 0.88). The market has consistently overbet new recruits from other stables on their first run: 6.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.63 and −42.02 to a £1 stake over 119 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Jacob Butterfield rides 9% of the entries and edges the yard's average (11.9% vs 8.4%, A/E 1.10) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (20.5%, n=117). The stable star of the record: Noodles Blue Boy (GB) — 12 wins from 105 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.5%−1.9

n=382 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −14.57

New recruits · first run for the yard

6.7%−1.7

n=119 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −42.02

Debutants · first career start

3.1%−5.3

n=224 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −108.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

5.3%−3.1

n=132 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −62.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

11.1%+2.7

n=99 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −4.00

When favourite

25.9%

n=224 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −48.21

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.9%+2.5

n=966 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −182.83

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.4

n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 20.5% vs 8.4% · n=117

With Jamie Moriarty 18.9% vs 8.4% · n=37

With Barry McHugh 15.6% vs 8.4% · n=128

At Doncaster 1.3% vs 8.4% · n=77

At Newcastle 15.5% vs 8.4% · n=71

With debutants 3.1% vs 8.4% · n=224

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 3,150 269 8.5% −960.82

Hurdle 124 8 6.5% −97.62

NH Flat 14 0 0% −14.00

Chase 7 1 14.3% +3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,039 102 9.8% −318.29

Good to Firm 837 80 9.6% −221.34

Good 805 55 6.8% −313.81

Good to Soft 324 21 6.5% −89.00

Soft 230 16 7% −134.00

Heavy 45 2 4.4% +3.00

Firm 15 2 13.3% +4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Beverley 441 36 8.2% −29.72

Wolverhampton (AW) 416 52 12.5% −96.39

Southwell (AW) 310 26 8.4% −98.60

Catterick 263 25 9.5% −60.25

Newcastle (AW) 259 16 6.2% −110.75

Redcar 238 10 4.2% −154.52

Thirsk 226 16 7.1% −97.67

Pontefract 151 9 6% −59.00

Ripon 137 11 8% −36.87

Musselburgh 90 13 14.4% +20.41

Carlisle 86 11 12.8% −6.50

Doncaster 77 1 1.3% −70.00

Newcastle 71 11 15.5% −5.03

York 64 4 6.3% −10.50

Leicester 53 5 9.4% −14.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 1,438 127 8.8% −528.79

Class 5 1,105 97 8.8% −310.15

Class 4 486 34 7% −164.63

Class 3 175 17 9.7% +13.63

Class 2 65 3 4.6% −53.50

Class 7 15 0 0% −15.00

Class 1 11 0 0% −11.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 287 71 24.7% 0.93 −59.09

2nd–3rd fav 709 100 14.1% 0.86 −182.85

4th–6th fav 1,016 74 7.3% 0.92 −260.50

7th+ in betting 1,283 33 2.6% 0.79 −567.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 1,288 96 7.5% −488.06

1m – 1m1f 690 61 8.8% −224.42

Under 6f 683 68 10% −133.96

1m2f – 1m4f 403 33 8.2% −120.04

1m5f – 2m 143 14 9.8% −44.84

2m1f – 2m4f 72 5 6.9% −45.87

2m5f – 3m 11 0 0% −11.00

Over 3m 5 1 20% −1.25

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 142 14 9.9% −52.52

2009 188 19 10.1% −52.74

2010 176 24 13.6% −9.30

2011 242 22 9.1% −77.17

2012 215 11 5.1% −145.13

2013 155 21 13.5% +25.84

2014 151 19 12.6% +15.75

2015 177 8 4.5% −113.92

2016 131 7 5.3% −80.27

2017 162 16 9.9% −3.25

2018 193 12 6.2% −101.38

2019 179 11 6.1% −120.15

2020 144 6 4.2% −69.37

2021 184 12 6.5% −68.75

2022 162 11 6.8% −10.75

2023 244 28 11.5% −55.96

2024 177 15 8.5% −48.84

2025 155 14 9% −21.75

2026 118 8 6.8% −79.78

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,234 183 8.2% −685.55

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,149 130 11.3% −167.01

11-13 runners 1,107 71 6.4% −396.54

5-7 runners 495 49 9.9% −230.41

14-16 runners 384 16 4.2% −180.50

17+ runners 122 4 3.3% −82.00

2-4 runners 38 8 21.1% −12.98

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Noodles Blue Boy (GB) 105 12 35 4 May 17

Lean On Pete (IRE)from David Lanigan 92 10 33 29 Apr 19

Roaring Rory (GB) 60 6 20 14 Feb 21

Let's Go Hugo (IRE) 56 7 21 26 Sep 26

Rowan Lodge (IRE)from Jim Boyle 53 7 20 8 Aug 12

Ready Freddie Go (IRE) 50 9 16 31 Oct 25

Christmas Night (GB) 46 3 17 18 Sep 21

Max Of Stars (FR) 42 8 16 27 Oct 26

Kroy (GB) 40 2 12 24 Apr 21

Lujano (GB) 39 5 13 27 Dec 11

Placebo Effect (IRE) 37 5 13 16 Oct 20

Dandy Highwayman (IRE) 37 5 13 5 Nov 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 348 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 15 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A Dickman (3) and Lee James (2); 40 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard, most often for Mike Sowersby (2); 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1267969101010767

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJacob Butterfield

9% of all rides
11.9% SR · A/E 1.10

RiderRWSR£1

Jacob Butterfield 310 37 11.9% −23.90

Harry Russell 261 26 10% −64.82

Cam Hardie 259 15 5.8% −137.51

Ben Robinson 258 23 8.9% −105.52

Andrew Mullen 181 12 6.6% −66.00

Graham Lee 145 8 5.5% −29.75

James Sullivan 141 11 7.8% +29.87

Barry McHugh 128 20 15.6% +13.70

Paul Mulrennan 98 6 6.1% −73.25

Tom Eaves 97 4 4.1% −37.00

Brian Hughes 81 5 6.2% −59.00

Tony Hamilton 65 7 10.8% −24.97

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

280

Archived wins

£1.95m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 28 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Crown Princess (IRE) — Sky Bet Sunday Series Fillies' Handicap Hamilton · May 2022 · Class 4

£15,876

Carnation Queen (IRE) — Coopers Marquees Rous Selling Stakes York · Jun 2025 · Class 3

£12,885

Inconspicuous (IRE) — CGE Yorkshire Rous Selling Stakes York · Jun 2024 · Class 3

£12,885

Notable horses

Noodles Blue Boy (GB) Lean On Pete (IRE) Ready Freddie Go (IRE) Max Of Stars (FR) Last Sovereign (GB) Let's Go Hugo (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Makbul (GB) 11.2% · 12–107

Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,039 runs since 2008 (65 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 12.8% from 117. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5% from 120.

Sakhee's Secret (GB) 8% · 8–100

Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,866 runs since 2012 (253 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12.3% from 772.

Oasis Dream (GB) 10.4% · 10–96

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,051 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 485. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 792.

Kodiac (GB) 8% · 7–88

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,604 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Observatory (USA) 4.1% · 3–73

Progeny have won 8.4% of 2,276 runs since 2008 (162 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 11.5% from 330.

Unfortunately (IRE) 9.6% · 7–73

Progeny have won 9.4% of 663 runs since 2022 (46 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 13.5% from 237.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,314 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,314 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 November 2007 to 27 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Dabbling (IRE)J: Tom Kiely-Marshall Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 8/1

27 Oct 26 Newcastle Max Of Stars (FR)J: Jamie Hamilton Dogs Welcome At The Border Minstrel Pub Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 5th 9/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) London Rose (IRE)J: Harry Russell AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 20/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Black Fury (IRE)J: Cam Hardie AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 16/1

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Max Of Stars (FR)J: Jamie Hamilton Download The www.betvickers.com App Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 4th 14/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Ice Cold Alex (GB)J: Billy Garritty Winter Ladies Night Saturday 28th November Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 11/2

17 Oct 26 Catterick Indefensible (IRE)J: Harry Russell William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 6th 10/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Hidden Army (IRE)J: Dougie Costello Join Racing TV Now British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 10th 100/1

08 Oct 26 Market Rasen Return With Gold (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Book Boxing Day At The Races Today! Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 5 ran PU 8/1

06 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Keldeo (GB)J: Harry Russell bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 22/1

01 Oct 26 Southwell Max Of Stars (FR)J: Brian Hughes Old Stag 70th Birthday Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran PU 15/2

30 Sep 26 Catterick Dabbling (IRE)J: Harry Russell Racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 6th 16/1

30 Sep 26 Catterick Indefensible (IRE)J: Harry Russell Bet At racingtv.com Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 14/1

30 Sep 26 Catterick Baila Morena (GB)J: Tom Kiely-Marshall Racing To School Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 16/1

26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Let's Go Hugo (IRE)J: Tom Kiely-Marshall Gent's Night Sat 24th October Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 9/2

25 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Hidden Army (IRE)J: Harry Russell United Infrastructure Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 18/1

18 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) London Rose (IRE)J: Cam Hardie Weatherbys Stallion Book Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Band D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8.5f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 10/1

17 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Indefensible (IRE)J: Harry Russell Free Bets On attheraces.com Selling Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 5 ran 4th 6/1

17 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Tiggywinkle (GB)J: James Sullivan Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 150/1

15 Sep 26 Redcar Ice Cold Alex (GB)J: Harry Russell Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 13th 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Ollie Pears's strike rate?: Ollie Pears has won 278 of 3,295 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ollie Pears do best at?: Newcastle by strike rate: 11 wins from 71 runners (15.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Ollie Pears?: Jacob Butterfield, with 310 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 37 (11.9%).
What is Ollie Pears's Fair A/E?: 0.88, from 3,274 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.