What is Paddy Butler's strike rate?

Paddy Butler has won 43 of 1,336 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.2% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paddy Butler do best at?

Chelmsford (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 45 runners (8.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paddy Butler?

Miss Michelle Bryant, with 182 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (2.2%).

Is Paddy Butler in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Paddy Butler's Fair A/E?

0.81, from 1,328 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paddy Butler

1,336 runners in the lifetime window · 134 individual horses

As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 3 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

43–1,336

Wins / Runs

3.2%

Strike rate

n=1,336

127 (10%)

Placed

0.81

Fair A/E

n=1,328 · 0.69 incl. margin

−651.62

£1 level stake

n=1,336 at SP · −48.8%

£246k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 70 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.81). New recruits from other yards win at 6% first time out (110 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,336 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Miss Michelle Bryant: 2.2% from 182 New recruits: 6.4%

The read

The record is strongest at Chelmsford (AW) (8.9%, n=45), clear of the yard's 3.2% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 6.4% (n=110, Fair A/E 1.54), but a horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 0% (n=98, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.84 and −70.00 to a £1 stake over 271 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Miss Michelle Bryant rides 14% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (2.2%, A/E 0.68). The stable star of the record: Estibdaad (IRE) — 7 wins from 69 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.2%−1.0

n=271 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −70.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

6.4%+3.2

n=110 · A/E 1.54 · £1 +39.75

Debutants · first career start

0%−3.2

n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−3.2

n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−3.2

n=98 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −98.00

When favourite

26.7%

n=15 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −3.62

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

3.2%+0.0

n=897 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −454.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−3.2

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 9.8% vs 3.2% · n=51

At Chelmsford (AW) 8.9% vs 3.2% · n=45

With new recruits 6.4% vs 3.2% · n=110

Off a 8-14-day break 5.8% vs 3.2% · n=293

With Callum Shepherd 6.8% vs 3.2% · n=59

With headgear back on 0% vs 3.2% · n=98

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 12.2% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 975 29 3% −542.12

Hurdle 263 9 3.4% −56.00

Chase 91 5 5.5% −46.50

NH Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 721 23 3.2% −431.25

Good 225 6 2.7% −50.50

Good to Firm 139 1 0.7% −129.50

Good to Soft 104 5 4.8% +35.88

Soft 102 6 5.9% −69.00

Heavy 35 2 5.7% +2.75

Firm 10 0 0% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield (AW) 379 10 2.6% −250.75

Kempton (AW) 198 7 3.5% −107.50

Plumpton 161 9 5.6% +37.50

Fontwell 114 4 3.5% −66.00

Brighton 98 1 1% −92.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 71 2 2.8% −54.50

Lingfield 66 0 0% −66.00

Chelmsford (AW) 45 4 8.9% +9.50

Southwell (AW) 28 0 0% −28.00

Windsor 22 0 0% −22.00

Salisbury 21 2 9.5% +97.00

Folkestone 19 0 0% −19.00

Newbury 15 0 0% −15.00

Goodwood 13 0 0% −13.00

Huntingdon 10 0 0% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 670 21 3.1% −425.12

Class 5 468 18 3.8% −61.00

Class 4 133 2 1.5% −116.50

Class 7 44 2 4.5% −28.00

Class 3 16 0 0% −16.00

Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 17 5 29.4% 1.10 −2.62

2nd–3rd fav 60 13 21.7% 1.54 +17.00

4th–6th fav 305 13 4.3% 0.72 −155.00

7th+ in betting 954 12 1.3% 0.54 −511.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m2f – 1m4f 386 12 3.1% −206.25

6f – 7f 261 6 2.3% −191.50

1m – 1m1f 220 5 2.3% −84.00

2m1f – 2m4f 171 8 4.7% −81.62

1m5f – 2m 166 8 4.8% −88.75

2m5f – 3m 48 0 0% −48.00

Under 6f 46 2 4.3% −21.50

Over 3m 38 2 5.3% +70.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 111 3 2.7% −96.75

2009 97 4 4.1% −24.00

2010 113 3 2.7% −56.50

2011 108 4 3.7% −87.25

2012 90 3 3.3% −56.00

2013 75 0 0% −75.00

2014 59 1 1.7% −38.00

2015 102 9 8.8% +17.00

2016 75 1 1.3% −72.00

2017 67 2 3% −47.00

2018 60 4 6.7% −18.50

2019 54 2 3.7% +70.00

2020 48 0 0% −48.00

2021 69 0 0% −69.00

2022 38 1 2.6% +63.00

2023 42 0 0% −42.00

2024 42 2 4.8% −33.75

2025 60 4 6.7% −11.87

2026 26 0 0% −26.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,078 38 3.5% −416.37

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

11-13 runners 480 12 2.5% −265.62

8-10 runners 459 14 3.1% −294.50

5-7 runners 211 14 6.6% +85.50

14-16 runners 141 0 0% −141.00

2-4 runners 32 3 9.4% −23.00

17+ runners 13 0 0% −13.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Estibdaad (IRE)from Anthony Honeyball 69 7 15 16 Feb 21

Haraz (IRE)from Jamie Osborne 57 1 2 4 Nov 22

Mercers (GB)from Peter Crate 57 5 12 22 Aug 22

What's For Tea (GB)from Tom Dascombe 53 2 8 9 Jun 15

Querido (GER)from Gary Brown 51 2 9 12 Jan 16

Corlough Mountain (GB)from Murty McGrath 40 2 4 16 Feb 15

All Or Nothin (IRE)from John Quinn 35 1 4 25 Apr 19

Heading To First (GB)from Clive Brittain · then Jim Best 31 0 2 16 Jul 14

Curragh Dancer (FR)from C Hennessy 30 3 6 20 Apr 14

Wondersobright (IRE)from Kahlil De Burca 25 3 6 10 Mar 10

Athenian Garden (USA)from Heather Dalton 23 1 5 11 Apr 17

Benandonner (USA)from Mike Murphy · then Mike Murphy 23 0 1 16 Sep 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 134 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 53 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gary Moore (3) and Heather Dalton (2); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Michelle Bryant (4) and Jim Best (2); 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 2

Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

646322413621

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderMiss Michelle Bryant

14% of all rides
2.2% SR · A/E 0.68

RiderRWSR£1

Miss Michelle Bryant 182 4 2.2% −126.00

Robert L Butler 145 4 2.8% −119.25

Marc Goldstein 61 4 6.6% +71.50

Callum Shepherd 59 4 6.8% −25.50

Miss Zoe Lilly 44 2 4.5% +1.00

George Rooke 42 1 2.4% −19.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£298k

Prize money

2015

Best season · 9 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Geography (IRE) — Totesport Handicap Hurdle Plumpton · Feb 2005 · Class 3

£6,841

Estibdaad (IRE) — Bet Toteplacepot Handicap Chelmsford City (AW) · Jun 2015 · Class 5

£4,528

El Hageb Rose (FR) — Ultimate Jumps Guide On Attheraces.com/jumps Handicap Hurdle Plumpton · Nov 2022 · Class 5

£4,248

Notable horses

Estibdaad (IRE) Mercers (GB) Wondersobright (IRE) Geography (IRE) Curragh Dancer (FR) Rupert The Prince (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Piccolo (GB) 5.1% · 5–98

Progeny have won 7.8% of 6,904 runs since 2008 (393 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.6% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.5% from 258.

Haatef (USA) 8.8% · 7–80

Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,427 runs since 2012 (89 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 2.7% from 112.

Acclamation (GB) 3.3% · 2–61

Progeny have won 10% of 19,716 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Beat All (USA) 3.8% · 2–53

Progeny have won 7% of 2,513 runs since 2008 (254 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.6% from 320. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.6% from 192. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 12.5% from 120.

Acatenango (GER) 3.9% · 2–51

Progeny have won 9.4% of 637 runs since 2008 (50 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.8% from 126.

Inchinor (GB) 5% · 2–40

Progeny have won 9.4% of 973 runs since 2008 (62 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 6.4% from 125. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 13.9% from 158.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,563 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,563 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Master Of Puppets (FR)J: Jason Watson Midnite Built Different Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 250/1

02 Nov 26 Plumpton Merci Vieil Ami (IRE)J: Marc Goldstein Cappagh Browne Utilities Ltd Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 150/1

19 Oct 26 Plumpton Merci Vieil Ami (IRE)J: Marc Goldstein Betty Chantler Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 5th 250/1

20 Sep 26 Plumpton Merci Vieil Ami (IRE)J: Marc Goldstein Bob George Powered By Mansell Mctaggart Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 18f · Good · 6 ran 5th 80/1

10 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Master Of Puppets (FR)J: Jack Doughty Follow @attheraces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 100/1

28 Aug 26 Fontwell Glorious Mist (IRE)J: Marc Goldstein Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 26f · Good · 5 ran 4th 80/1

27 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Senseofentitlement (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Classified StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 200/1

11 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Dubai Immo (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Compare Licenced Betting Sites gambling.com Classified StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 50/1

13 Jul 26 Lingfield (AW) Love Is Golden (IRE)J: Ben Ffrench Davis attheraces.com/marketmovers HandicapClass 5 · 13f · Standard · 9 ran PU 400/1

18 Jun 26 Lingfield Love Is Golden (IRE)J: Jack Dace Free Tips At chracingclub.com HandicapClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 5 ran 5th 150/1

18 Jun 26 Lingfield Reel Power (GB)J: Tom Queally Sandy Is Going The Distance At 80 Classified Stakes (Div 2)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 9th 100/1

18 Jun 26 Lingfield Dubai Immo (IRE)J: Tom Queally Sandy Is Going The Distance At 80 Classified Stakes (Div 1)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 7th 66/1

05 Jun 26 Goodwood Love Is Golden (IRE)J: Seamus Cronin Goodwood Horseracing Club Membership Apprentice Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 9th 80/1

24 May 26 Fontwell Glorious Mist (IRE)J: Marc Goldstein Southcoast Homecare Excellence In Care Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 26f · Good · 6 ran F 40/1

19 May 26 Lingfield Reel Power (GB)J: Jason Watson Simon Duggan The Bad Ama Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7.5f · Good · 13 ran 10th 40/1

19 May 26 Lingfield Senseofentitlement (IRE)J: Jason Watson Simon Duggan The Bad Ama Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7.5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 66/1

19 Apr 26 Plumpton Fascinating Lips (IRE)J: Dylan Johnston Diane And Harry's Plumpton Annual Box Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran PU 150/1

08 Apr 26 Kempton (AW) Dubai Immo (IRE)J: Rose Dawes Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 12th 33/1

08 Apr 26 Fontwell Engaging Sam (GB)J: Caoilin Quinn Southern Contract Lifting Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran UR 8/1

06 Apr 26 Plumpton Fascinating Lips (IRE)J: Dylan Johnston Gordon And Angela Ashdown Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 7 ran PU 80/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paddy Butler's strike rate?: Paddy Butler has won 43 of 1,336 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.2% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paddy Butler do best at?: Chelmsford (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 45 runners (8.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paddy Butler?: Miss Michelle Bryant, with 182 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (2.2%).
Is Paddy Butler in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Paddy Butler's Fair A/E?: 0.81, from 1,328 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.