What is Pat Phelan's strike rate?

Pat Phelan has won 202 of 2,684 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Pat Phelan do best at?

Ascot by strike rate: 5 wins from 35 runners (14.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Pat Phelan?

Paddy Bradley, with 469 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 45 (9.6%).

Is Pat Phelan in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Pat Phelan's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 2,668 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Pat Phelan

2,684 runners in the lifetime window · 251 individual horses

As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 7 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

202–2,684

Wins / Runs

7.5%

Strike rate

n=2,684

605 (23%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=2,668 · 0.82 incl. margin

−722.64

£1 level stake

n=2,684 at SP · −26.9%

£1.29m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 140 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,684 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Apr 29.8% when favourite Paddy Bradley: 9.6% from 469 Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

It is weakest at Kempton (1.3% over 75 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 2.4% (n=170, Fair A/E 0.98). Paddy Bradley rides 17% of the entries and edges the yard's average (9.6% vs 7.5%, A/E 1.07) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 0% over 35 runners, 7.5pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Win A Football Fortune With Scoop6soccer Handicap at Epsom Downs (Sep 2015, £12,450). The stable star of the record: Epsom Faithfull (GB) — 11 wins from 45 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.5% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.6%−0.9

n=528 · A/E 1.09 · £1 +44.41

New recruits · first run for the yard

7%−0.5

n=71 · A/E 1.65 · £1 +90.50

Debutants · first career start

2.4%−5.1

n=170 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −101.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

2.4%−5.1

n=84 · A/E 0.22 · £1 −71.75

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.3%−3.2

n=93 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −58.17

When favourite

29.8%

n=141 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −18.32

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.2%−0.3

n=1,049 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −378.61

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9.1%+1.6

n=11 · A/E 2.85 · £1 +0.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 21.3% vs 7.5% · n=202

With C&D winners 12.7% vs 7.5% · n=387

With Kieran O'Neill 0% vs 7.5% · n=41

At Kempton 1.3% vs 7.5% · n=75

In Class 2 0% vs 7.5% · n=35

With debutants 2.4% vs 7.5% · n=170

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,175 178 8.2% −443.15

Hurdle 375 16 4.3% −191.81

NH Flat 75 5 6.7% −43.18

Chase 59 3 5.1% −44.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,273 117 9.2% −198.08

Good 499 25 5% −275.84

Good to Firm 360 25 6.9% −60.83

Good to Soft 262 15 5.7% −94.55

Soft 220 14 6.4% −54.00

Heavy 56 4 7.1% −31.94

Firm 14 2 14.3% −7.40

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield 656 74 11.3% +46.67

Kempton (AW) 579 41 7.1% −217.50

Epsom 211 17 8.1% −41.38

Windsor 199 13 6.5% −12.25

Brighton 145 8 5.5% −63.90

Plumpton 114 9 7.9% −12.81

Lingfield 113 7 6.2% −38.55

Fontwell 101 4 4% −73.50

Newbury 82 2 2.4% −73.00

Kempton 75 1 1.3% −68.50

Sandown 73 2 2.7% −49.00

Goodwood 54 5 9.3% −9.00

Huntingdon 45 2 4.4% −18.25

Ascot 35 5 14.3% +21.50

Chelmsford (AW) 27 2 7.4% −16.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 1,046 101 9.7% −136.57

Class 5 927 51 5.5% −527.57

Class 4 538 39 7.2% +17.17

Class 3 104 9 8.7% −26.17

Class 2 35 0 0% −35.00

Class 7 19 1 5.3% −10.50

Class 1 15 1 6.7% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 181 47 26% 0.97 −38.57

2nd–3rd fav 422 65 15.4% 1.00 −43.57

4th–6th fav 832 57 6.9% 0.92 −253.50

7th+ in betting 1,249 33 2.6% 0.93 −387.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m2f – 1m4f 882 94 10.7% +133.63

6f – 7f 546 23 4.2% −375.39

1m5f – 2m 491 41 8.4% −150.41

1m – 1m1f 483 33 6.8% −137.47

2m1f – 2m4f 176 6 3.4% −130.50

Under 6f 48 4 8.3% −11.00

2m5f – 3m 47 1 2.1% −40.50

Over 3m 11 0 0% −11.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 92 12 13% +20.61

2009 174 16 9.2% −4.50

2010 208 18 8.7% +39.66

2011 229 15 6.6% −85.00

2012 225 19 8.4% −75.25

2013 201 18 9% −29.08

2014 152 7 4.6% −78.00

2015 148 16 10.8% −6.75

2016 147 8 5.4% −92.76

2017 120 1 0.8% −112.00

2018 157 15 9.6% −20.25

2019 128 3 2.3% −97.00

2020 59 2 3.4% −42.50

2021 116 12 10.3% −66.05

2022 96 10 10.4% −30.18

2023 125 6 4.8% −64.00

2024 116 9 7.8% +62.00

2025 97 7 7.2% −36.17

2026 94 8 8.5% −5.42

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,932 167 8.6% −276.28

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 958 83 8.7% −260.32

11-13 runners 938 59 6.3% −153.42

5-7 runners 402 39 9.7% −146.00

14-16 runners 321 16 5% −141.92

17+ runners 42 1 2.4% −31.00

2-4 runners 23 4 17.4% +10.02

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Epsom Salts (GB) 66 10 22 25 Jul 14

Super Duplex (GB)then Roger Teal 53 4 14 22 Oct 13

Young Dottie (GB) 51 6 18 30 Apr 15

Devizes (IRE) 48 7 16 4 Aug 25

Epsom Faithfull (GB) 45 11 18 16 Feb 25

The Wonga Coup (IRE) 41 3 9 11 May 14

Green Earth (IRE)from Amanda Perrett 39 6 10 14 Jul 14

Ermyntrude (GB) 39 4 11 15 Jan 14

Celtic Charlie (FR) 38 2 12 12 Jun 14

Settle Petal (GB)then Robyn Brisland 36 4 12 23 Sep 20

Baby Dottie (GB) 36 2 16 23 Nov 13

Naasma (IRE)from Kevin Ryan 34 6 17 12 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 251 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 14 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 19 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Amanda Perrett (2) and James Tate (2); 41 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard; 52 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

111210947667598

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderPaddy Bradley

17% of all rides
9.6% SR · A/E 1.07

RiderRWSR£1

Paddy Bradley 469 45 9.6% −27.55

Ian Mongan 340 32 9.4% −77.84

Jemma Marshall 255 14 5.5% −68.65

J F Egan 167 18 10.8% +28.42

Charlie Bennett 125 5 4% −80.00

Colin Bolger 115 7 6.1% −73.93

Sean Houlihan 109 3 2.8% −46.00

Rhys Clutterbuck 83 11 13.3% −11.35

Fergus Sweeney 70 7 10% +97.50

Sophie Ralston 64 2 3.1% −51.00

Niall Houlihan 59 1 1.7% −54.67

Shane Kelly 53 3 5.7% −43.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

204

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.30m

Prize money

2012

Best season · 19 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Quest For Wonder (GB) — Win A Football Fortune With Scoop6soccer Handicap Epsom Downs · Sep 2015 · Class 3

£12,450

Dani's Girl (IRE) — Williamhill.com Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Ascot · Oct 2009 · Listed

£12,393

Epsom Faithfull (GB) — Alvarium Handicap Ascot · Jul 2022 · Class 3

£10,800

Notable horses

Epsom Faithfull (GB) Epsom Salts (GB) Devizes (IRE) Young Dottie (GB) Green Earth (IRE) Naasma (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Footstepsinthesand (GB) 4.4% · 4–90

Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,813 runs since 2009 (938 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.

Cape Cross (IRE) 12.8% · 11–86

Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.

Dubawi (IRE) 14.1% · 11–78

Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,993 runs since 2009 (1,531 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

Peintre Celebre (USA) 15.6% · 12–77

Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,836 runs since 2008 (311 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.3% from 734. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.2% from 291.

Churchill (IRE) 12.9% · 9–70

Progeny have won 11% of 4,851 runs since 2021 (462 horses).

Sir Percy (GB) 7.1% · 5–70

Progeny have won 11.2% of 7,154 runs since 2011 (473 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,742 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,742 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 December 2006 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Nov 26 Lingfield Boston Run (IRE)J: David Noonan John Marshall 80th Birthday Celebration Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 11 ran UR 100/1

03 Nov 26 Lingfield Head Office (GB)J: Sean Houlihan Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 4th 28/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Imperial Cult (IRE)J: Paddy Bradley Try Unibet's New Racing Bet Builder Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 10th 40/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Upsomdowns (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 4th 100/30

19 Oct 26 Plumpton Dotties Star (GB)J: Sean Houlihan SIS Handicap Hurdle Race (For The Josh Gifford Memorial Trophy)Class 5 · 20.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 18/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Private Project (IRE)J: Paddy Bradley Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 7th 10/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Shifra (IRE)J: Paddy Bradley Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 5th 3/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Naasma (IRE)J: Sean Levey Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Series Qualifier)Class 6 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 6th 9/2

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Freda (IRE)J: Sean Levey Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 9th 22/1

07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Celtic John (IRE)J: Paddy Bradley Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 3rd 8/1

07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Upsomdowns (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 10th 28/1

06 Oct 26 Huntingdon James Dean (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan Advertise At Huntingdon Racecourse In 2026/2027 "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 50/1

06 Oct 26 Brighton Private Project (IRE)J: Isobelle Chalmers Matchbook Signup - Get 20% Back On Losses Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Hands And Heels Race) (Part Of The Racing Excellence Series)Class 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 3rd 4/1J

30 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Amber Honey (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 9th 9/2

23 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Sir Patchy (GB)J: Olivia Haines Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Qualifier)Class 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 12th 33/1

23 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Upsomdowns (GB)J: Sean Levey Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 4th 12/1

23 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Freda (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Racing Tv Fillies' Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 5th 7/2

14 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Celtic John (IRE)J: Finlay Bassett Bet @racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 2nd 11/1

13 Sep 26 Bath Shifra (IRE)J: Seamus Cronin Royal Bath & West Society Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good · 12 ran 1st 100/30F

12 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Amber Honey (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Happy 60th Jacqueline Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 15/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 12 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · to 28 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Pat Phelan's strike rate?: Pat Phelan has won 202 of 2,684 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Pat Phelan do best at?: Ascot by strike rate: 5 wins from 35 runners (14.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Pat Phelan?: Paddy Bradley, with 469 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 45 (9.6%).
Is Pat Phelan in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Pat Phelan's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 2,668 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.