What is Roger Varian's strike rate?

Roger Varian has won 1,611 of 8,397 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 19.2% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Roger Varian do best at?

Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 115 wins from 458 runners (25.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Roger Varian?

Andrea Atzeni, with 1,823 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 355 (19.5%).

Is Roger Varian in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Roger Varian's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 8,353 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Roger Varian

8,397 runners in the lifetime window · 1,357 individual horses

As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 7.1% of 451 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 8 Nov 2026.

Won yesterday Last runner yesterday 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

1,611–8,397

Wins / Runs

19.2%

Strike rate

n=8,397

3,738 (45%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=8,353 · 0.87 incl. margin

−1,344.44

£1 level stake

n=8,397 at SP · −16.0%

£39.9m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

21.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 440 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 19% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.01). New recruits from other yards win at 26% first time out (108 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 8,397 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Mar Fresh horses: 21.3% 38.6% when favourite Andrea Atzeni: 19.5% from 1,823 New recruits: 25.9% Sends off the favourite in 26% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Beverley (36.2%, n=69) and Bath (28.9%, n=76) — all clear of the yard's 19.2% baseline. It is weakest at Goodwood (9.8% over 305 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 25.9% (n=108, Fair A/E 1.29), but a horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 12.3% (n=122, Fair A/E 0.94). Andrea Atzeni rides 22% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (19.5%, A/E 1.03) — the market has that partnership priced right. 189 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot (Oct 2023, £737,230). The stable star of the record: Steps (IRE) — 9 wins from 48 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 19.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

21.3%+2.1

n=1,631 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −265.16

New recruits · first run for the yard

25.9%+6.7

n=108 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −3.43

Debutants · first career start

14.3%−4.9

n=1,249 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −282.79

First-time headgear · true-first definition

16.2%−3.0

n=462 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −79.27

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

12.3%−6.9

n=122 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −13.40

When favourite

38.6%

n=2,224 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −190.06

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

16.3%−2.9

n=375 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −39.33

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

13.6%−5.6

n=1,391 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −149.75

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 19.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Beverley 36.2% vs 19.2% · n=69

At Goodwood 9.8% vs 19.2% · n=305

At Newmarket 10.7% vs 19.2% · n=326

At Ascot 12.1% vs 19.2% · n=486

With Dominic Fox 30.8% vs 19.2% · n=39

At Bath 28.9% vs 19.2% · n=76

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 3.9% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 8,395 1610 19.2% −1,345.69

Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

NH Flat 1 1 100% +2.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 2,504 561 22.4% −296.32

Good to Firm 2,001 373 18.6% −310.29

Good 1,979 351 17.7% −292.47

Good to Soft 965 175 18.1% −147.59

Soft 750 116 15.5% −241.49

Heavy 158 23 14.6% −58.86

Firm 40 12 30% +2.58

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton 777 160 20.6% −104.21

Newmarket 580 73 12.6% −115.70

Ascot 486 59 12.1% −73.85

Wolverhampton (AW) 458 115 25.1% +29.67

Lingfield (AW) 412 93 22.6% −38.28

Doncaster 407 93 22.9% +3.34

Newcastle (AW) 377 89 23.6% −54.92

Newbury 361 44 12.2% −53.85

Haydock 326 60 18.4% −83.04

Newmarket 326 35 10.7% −141.39

Chelmsford (AW) 307 59 19.2% −95.57

Goodwood 305 30 9.8% −133.71

Yarmouth 300 63 21% −60.29

Nottingham 277 56 20.2% −8.65

York 270 33 12.2% −91.27

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 2,729 645 23.6% −426.93

Class 4 2,017 372 18.4% −349.87

Class 1 1,391 188 13.5% −150.95

Class 2 1,133 161 14.2% −278.68

Class 3 886 204 23% −84.92

Class 6 237 40 16.9% −53.42

Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 2,456 919 37.4% 1.07 −178.46

2nd–3rd fav 2,880 469 16.3% 0.91 −647.08

4th–6th fav 2,097 181 8.6% 1.01 −354.60

7th+ in betting 964 42 4.4% 1.14 −164.30

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 3,064 584 19.1% −546.17

1m – 1m1f 2,474 472 19.1% −402.79

1m2f – 1m4f 2,091 410 19.6% −216.48

Under 6f 458 92 20.1% −77.66

1m5f – 2m 299 53 17.7% −90.34

2m1f – 2m4f 11 0 0% −11.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2011 275 54 19.6% +58.27

2012 406 73 18% −52.47

2013 408 90 22.1% +26.37

2014 489 81 16.6% −87.29

2015 481 100 20.8% −28.58

2016 564 100 17.7% −131.71

2017 573 113 19.7% −100.68

2018 618 109 17.6% −109.47

2019 618 118 19.1% −125.14

2020 589 117 19.9% −103.33

2021 638 136 21.3% −49.85

2022 652 142 21.8% −47.24

2023 676 122 18% −150.55

2024 512 84 16.4% −208.86

2025 507 89 17.6% −140.43

2026 391 83 21.2% −93.48

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 3,448 618 17.9% −513.26

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,873 566 19.7% −391.74

11-13 runners 2,167 352 16.2% −301.47

5-7 runners 1,921 480 25% −320.24

14-16 runners 790 100 12.7% −186.50

17+ runners 433 36 8.3% −114.10

2-4 runners 213 77 36.2% −30.39

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Steps (IRE)from Michael Jarvis 48 9 18 21 May 16

Fantastic Fox (GB) 41 6 14 12 Oct 26

Greatgadian (GER) 36 5 13 4 Oct 24

One Pekan (IRE) 31 2 13 5 Jan 17

Spanish City (GB) 29 5 14 21 Nov 20

Double Up (GB)then Ian Williams 28 5 15 2 Jul 18

Justineo (GB)from William Haggas · then Robert Cowell 25 4 10 21 Aug 15

Tyrrhenian Sea (IRE) 24 6 15 3 Apr 26

Russet Gold (GB)then Kevin Ryan 24 2 7 3 Oct 25

Mountain Angel (IRE) 22 5 15 18 Jun 20

Atletico (IRE)then David Evans 22 3 12 4 Aug 18

Panettone (IRE) 22 3 3 26 Nov 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,357 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 14 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Michael Jarvis (3); 53 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for Ian Williams (2) and Robert Cowell (2); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

2 from 10

Only 10 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

212327201820191920172021

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAndrea Atzeni

22% of all rides
19.5% SR · A/E 1.03

RiderRWSR£1

Andrea Atzeni 1,823 355 19.5% −205.76

Jack Mitchell 1,367 293 21.4% −120.51

David Egan 1,028 182 17.7% −231.93

Ray Dawson 510 97 19% −150.88

Neil Callan 354 56 15.8% +2.48

Silvestre De Sousa 345 77 22.3% −34.61

Jim Crowley 262 67 25.6% −0.38

Dane O'Neill 199 40 20.1% −23.52

Paul Hanagan 183 39 21.3% −31.25

James Doyle 173 32 18.5% −67.66

Harry Bentley 167 25 15% −61.60

Cameron Noble 144 18 12.5% −65.82

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→

1,611

Archived wins

189

Pattern / graded wins

£39.9m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 142 wins

King Of Steel (USA) — Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Middle Distance) Ascot · Oct 2023 · Group 1

£737,230

Bayside Boy (IRE) — Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) (British Champions Mile) (Str) Ascot · Oct 2022 · Group 1

£655,709

Charyn (IRE) — Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored by Qipco) (Group 1) (British Champions Mile) (Str) Ascot · Oct 2024 · Group 1

£655,709

Notable horses

Steps (IRE) Defoe (IRE) Believe In Love (IRE) Charyn (IRE) Al Husn (IRE) Fantastic Fox (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dubawi (IRE) 21.8% · 87–399

Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,985 runs since 2009 (1,530 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

Dark Angel (IRE) 21.2% · 62–292

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,953 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 17.2% · 49–285

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,039 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 21.9% · 60–274

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,230 runs since 2014 (1,109 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 960.

Frankel (GB) 20.7% · 50–241

Progeny have won 18% of 7,543 runs since 2016 (882 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 329. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.2% from 270.

Oasis Dream (GB) 19.4% · 45–232

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,047 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 485. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 792.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,397 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,397 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 April 2011 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Palms Oasis (GB)J: Ross Coakley ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back EBF "Confined" Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D With No More Than Three Runs) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 2/1

07 Nov 26 Doncaster Mobberley Rose (IRE)J: David Egan Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Irish EBF Gillies Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 10f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 17th 50/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Imperial Court (IRE)J: Sean Dylan Bowen AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 14/1

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Lady Magu (GB)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 9/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Prince Of Petra (IRE)J: Sean Dylan Bowen British EBF Future Stayers Maiden Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 1st 16/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) El Ghanema (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Unibet/British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Div II) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 4th 9/4

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Bintaziza (IRE)J: Sean Dylan Bowen AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8.5f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 9/2

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Avicenna (IRE)J: Callum Rodriguez German Group One Racecourses James Seymour Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 10f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 16/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Roku Nana (GB)J: Callum Rodriguez British Stallion Studs Ebf Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 10th 7/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Arkat (IRE)J: Rowan Scott German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool British EBF Novice Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only) (Div I)Class 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 3rd 12/1

25 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Little Dorrit (GB)J: Ray Dawson Prix Belle de NuitClass 1 · 14f · Soft · 13 ran 4th 10/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Geometry (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Awc Season 14 Has Begun Ebf Maiden Stakes (Div II) (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 10/11F

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Ultrasoul (IRE)J: Ray Dawson William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 10f · Heavy · 14 ran 3rd 20/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Anyasi (GB)J: Ray Dawson William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 3rd 7/2

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Egotistical (GB)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Awc Season 14 Has Begun Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 22/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Jahami (GB)J: Sean Dylan Bowen All Weather Championship Is Back Ebf Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8.5f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 10/11F

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Tenshi (IRE)J: Ray Dawson "What Are The Odds" By Alan Newman Ebf Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 25/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Silent City (GB)J: Jack Mitchell CopyBet Support Safer Gambling Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 15 ran 8th 17/2

22 Oct 26 Newmarket State Emperor (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell CopyBet For Europa League Profit Boosts EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8f · Soft · 7 ran 3rd 9/2

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Out Late (IRE)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Try Unibet's Superboosts/british Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 3rd 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 6 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 7 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 6 runs (won 2) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 1) · to 3 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Roger Varian's strike rate?: Roger Varian has won 1,611 of 8,397 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 19.2% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Roger Varian do best at?: Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 115 wins from 458 runners (25.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Roger Varian?: Andrea Atzeni, with 1,823 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 355 (19.5%).
Is Roger Varian in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Roger Varian's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 8,353 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.