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Trainer profile

S M Duffy

835 runners in the lifetime window · 93 individual horses
As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 10 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
33–835
Wins / Runs
4%
Strike rate
n=835
121 (15%)
Placed
0.89
Fair A/E
n=833 · 0.70 incl. margin
−437.50
£1 level stake
n=835 at SP · −52.4%
£318k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.1%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.89).

Deterministic profile computed from 835 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
The read

It is weakest at Curragh (0% over 40 runners) — the widest gap in the record. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.72 and −88.00 to a £1 stake over 144 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 0% over 60 runners, 4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.00 across 57 runners (0% strike, −57.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: War Room (IRE) — 7 wins from 48 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.1%−1.9
n=144 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −88.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
1.5%−2.5
n=66 · A/E 0.42 · £1 −61.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.0
n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −28.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.0
n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −28.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4.8%+0.8
n=63 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +0.00
When favourite
15.4%
n=13 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −6.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.8%−0.2
n=398 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −231.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 12.2% vs 4% · n=41
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 0% vs 4% · n=60
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 4% · n=57
On Good to Soft going 0% vs 4% · n=56
At Curragh 0% vs 4% · n=40
At Limerick 0% vs 4% · n=37
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 658 29 4.4% −313.00
Hurdle 154 4 2.6% −101.50
Chase 16 0 0% −16.00
NH Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 249 14 5.6% −97.50
Soft 212 6 2.8% −159.00
Good 181 6 3.3% −93.00
Heavy 93 6 6.5% +9.00
Good to Soft 56 0 0% −56.00
Good to Firm 41 1 2.4% −38.00
Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk 228 11 4.8% −96.00
Gowran Park 64 1 1.6% −61.00
Navan 51 2 3.9% −22.00
Curragh 40 0 0% −40.00
Listowel 40 3 7.5% −18.00
Limerick 37 0 0% −37.00
Leopardstown 33 0 0% −33.00
Cork 29 2 6.9% +31.00
Ballinrobe 26 3 11.5% +7.50
Killarney 26 0 0% −26.00
Clonmel 24 0 0% −24.00
Galway 24 2 8.3% −10.50
Roscommon 22 0 0% −22.00
Naas 21 0 0% −21.00
Fairyhouse 19 0 0% −19.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 19 2 10.5% −10.50
Class 5 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 24 5 20.8% 1.09 −3.00
2nd–3rd fav 48 10 20.8% 1.51 +10.00
4th–6th fav 153 7 4.6% 0.67 −94.50
7th+ in betting 610 11 1.8% 0.71 −350.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Waterloo Sunrise (IRE) 58 2 14 27 Nov 15
Molly Kaye (GB) 52 5 13 31 Jan 23
War Room (IRE)from N Stokes 48 7 12 7 Nov 18
Talking Tough (IRE)from Michael Mulvany 37 0 2 23 Sep 26
Phoenix Open (USA)from G M Lyons 37 1 6 15 Dec 23
Roryslittlesister (IRE) 31 1 1 26 Sep 17
Hello Man (IRE)from J G Burns 28 2 4 12 Nov 14
Deluca Chop (FR)from Gerard O'Leary 27 2 11 25 Sep 26
Multiviz (GB)from Ms Sheila Lavery 24 1 4 4 Oct 19
Faranadooney (USA)from Ms Joanna Morgan 23 2 9 15 Jun 14
Lady Lyrath (IRE) 22 1 7 27 Sep 13
Society Ranger (IRE)from Adrian McGuinness · then Joseph Anthony Murray 20 2 3 23 Mar 18
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 93 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 43 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Gerard Hogan (3) and Seamus G O'Donnell (3); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

21 have since run for another yard, most often for Noel Lawlor (4) and Emmet Mullins (2); 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
334316454800
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderShane Foley
5% of all rides
6.7% SR · A/E 1.06
RiderRWSR£1
Shane Foley 45 3 6.7% −24.00
Gary Carroll 43 2 4.7% −25.00
N G McCullagh 39 1 2.6% −13.00
Gearoid Brouder 35 1 2.9% −31.50
Tommy Brett 34 2 5.9% +9.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→
33
Archived wins
£318k
Prize money
2015
Best season · 5 wins
Eadbhard (IRE) — vaughanshoes.ie Ladies Day Today Claiming Maiden Ballinrobe · Jun 2018
£7,700
Akiliyna (IRE) — Tote Best Value For The Galway Festival Maiden Ballinrobe · Jul 2015
£7,590
Faranadooney (USA) — Dr. Louis O'carroll Maiden Hurdle Listowel · Jun 2012
£6,900
Notable horses
War Room (IRE) Molly Kaye (GB) Waterloo Sunrise (IRE) Hello Man (IRE) Deluca Chop (FR) Faranadooney (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Multiplex (GB) 7.9% · 6–76
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,181 runs since 2011 (291 horses).
Craigsteel (GB) 3.4% · 2–59
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,393 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 291. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.9% from 763.
Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 14.8% · 8–54
Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,885 runs since 2010 (949 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.
Scat Daddy (USA) 2.7% · 1–37
Progeny have won 14.2% of 906 runs since 2011 (99 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 19.7% from 198. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 27.4% from 124. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.5% from 134.
Tough As Nails (IRE) 0% · 0–37
Progeny have won 7.4% of 733 runs since 2017 (40 horses).
Captain Rio (GB) 3.2% · 1–31
Progeny have won 9.5% of 6,912 runs since 2008 (423 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 835 · newest first

The latest 50 of 835 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 21 May 2009 to 28 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Roman Harry (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (Div II)7f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 11/2
21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Piatra Neamt (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Navan Racecourse Handicap14f · Yielding · 23 ran 6th 15/2
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Cannonball Queen (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Soft · 16 ran 13th 14/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Piatra Neamt (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Thank You For Your Support Handicap12f · Soft · 16 ran 5th 15/2
25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Chopsticks (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap12f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 22/1
25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Deluca Chop (FR)J: Patrick McGettigan Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap12f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 10/1
23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Talking Tough (IRE)J: Mr C G Ryan McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 16 ran F 300/1
21 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Place Your Regrets (IRE)J: Scott McCullagh Eric Browne Memorial Maiden12f · Yielding · 11 ran 11th 500/1
16 Sep 26 Clonmel (IRE) Piatra Neamt (IRE)J: Ms Aine Connolly John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Handicap17f · Yielding · 7 ran 5th 12/1
16 Sep 26 Clonmel (IRE) Talking Tough (IRE)J: Shane Foley Camida Winning Solution Handicap10f · Yielding · 14 ran 14th 40/1
16 Sep 26 Clonmel (IRE) Place Your Regrets (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Slievenamon Maiden10f · Yielding · 7 ran 7th 200/1
10 Sep 26 Laytown (IRE) Roman Harry (IRE)J: Chris Hayes O'NEILLS.COM Handicap7f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 11/2
09 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Cannonball Queen (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Follow Us On X Handicap7f · Good · 22 ran 7th 8/1
02 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Darwin's Angel (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Navan Handicap (Div II)8f · Good · 16 ran 13th 66/1
02 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Cannonball Queen (IRE)J: Ben Coen Navan Handicap (Div I)8f · Good · 16 ran 6th 17/2
27 Aug 26 Navan (IRE) Deluca Chop (FR)J: Paddy Harnett Racing Next At Navan On Saturday September 5th Handicap14f · Good · 22 ran 3rd 14/1
15 Aug 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Roman Harry (IRE)J: Chris Hayes BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 20/1
06 Aug 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Cannonball Queen (IRE)J: Ben Coen Carnival de Leop Handicap7f · Good · 17 ran 4th 12/1
05 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) Piatra Neamt (IRE)J: Nicola Burns Rockshore Cider Handicap13.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 8th 20/1
05 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) Deluca Chop (FR)J: Patrick McGettigan Rockshore Cider Handicap13.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 5th 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 12 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 1) · to 28 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is S M Duffy's strike rate?
S M Duffy has won 33 of 835 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does S M Duffy do best at?
Listowel by strike rate: 3 wins from 40 runners (7.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is S M Duffy in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is S M Duffy's Fair A/E?
0.89, from 833 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 7 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).