4:54 Redcar
A competitive Class 6 handicap over an extended mile at Redcar features a field of 20, with the KTB numbers highlighting a group of modest performers where recent form, course experience and trainer records at the track separate the principals. The going is good and the race is run on a track where draw and run-style will matter, especially with the strong pace anticipated. Overall the KTB Fit scores suggest a race that is difficult to call with several holding claims but none standing out dramatically.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strongly positive for those who race on the pace early, and the race is likely to be run at a strong gallop that could collapse in the final furlong. This will favour hold-up horses who time their run late, while those on the speed will need to be very resolute to hold on. The key question is whether any of the prominent runners can dictate terms without overdoing it or whether the race will fall apart late for the closers coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Yafaarr KTB Selection63/100
Yafaarr is a modest performer who has won once in five runs at this track and is two from ten at today's trip. He drops back from a mile and a quarter having shown fair form over that distance on his last two starts, which should leave him well placed to capitalise if the race falls apart late. The trainer's solid 14% strike rate at Redcar from 28 runs is a plus while the jockey's modest 8% record at the track from 271 rides is a slight negative. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he fits the profile that should be favoured by the expected strong pace. He has a win on good ground from seven starts and his recent form of 013246 shows enough competitiveness at this level.
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2Pisanello56/100
Pisanello is a modest performer who has been in good heart of late with three wins from his last five starts. He has won twice from seven runs at Redcar and the trainer has a solid 15% strike rate here from a big sample of 768 runs. Dropping back to a trip he has won at before is another plus although his record of one win from 13 on good ground is only modest. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace that is likely. His recent form of 561112 underlines that he arrives in form and with a course record of two wins from seven he cannot be dismissed lightly.
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3Degale54/100
Degale is a modest performer who has run creditably on his last two starts yet still only has one win from 15 career runs. He has won on good ground and at today's trip though the yard's modest record at Redcar of 8% strike rate from 91 runs offers little encouragement. This is his first run at the track which adds another unknown. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he could be vulnerable if the strong pace materialises as expected. His recent form of 508530 shows some competitiveness at this level but the combination of yard record and course debut tempers enthusiasm.
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4Perfidia53/100
Perfidia is a modest performer who has been placed three times from seven runs at Redcar without winning. Consistent rather than progressive this year with form figures of 912273, he has won three times at today's trip from 16 attempts. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate here from a huge sample of 2341 runs while the jockey is a touch more effective at 11% from 1288 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he could set or contest the strong gallop but may find it hard to repel late challengers. He has two wins from 12 on good ground and course form that reads 3rd, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 2nd.
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5We've Got This51/100
We've Got This is a modest performer who has won once in four runs at this track and has placed twice at today's trip. Recent form has been ordinary with figures of -65735 and the first-time headgear is now needed to spark improvement. The trainer has a solid 9% strike rate here from 95 runs while the jockey remains winless from her seven rides at Redcar. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace that is anticipated. He has been competitive without winning on good ground from four starts and his course win adds to his claims at this venue.
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6Rwenearlytheredad50/100
Rwenearlytheredad is a limited performer who has won once here from four visits and also has a win at this trip on his record. Recent form is ordinary at best and he steps up in trip today having last run over 7f. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Redcar.
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7Beckon50/100
Beckon is a modest performer who won a 7f maiden on debut last season but has failed to build on it in six starts since. Dropped to this level for the first time and has the right trip, yet the wide draw in stall 15 adds difficulty on a track where the trainer has a poor 0-30 record. Jockey has a 10% strike rate from 21 rides here.
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8Balmoral Boy49/100
Balmoral Boy is a limited performer who has shown just one placed effort in eight starts and now tries first-time headgear. Drops back to a trip he has placed at before but has never won on good ground from two attempts. Trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Redcar is offset by the jockey's stronger 13% record here.
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9Captain Corelli48/100
Captain Corelli is a limited performer who has won once from two starts at this track and holds a solid record on good ground with three wins from 12 starts. He has also won seven times from 33 starts at today's trip distance. The yard and jockey both hold modest strike rates here.
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10Lever Up47/100
Lever Up is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing placed on two of five starts on good ground. Drops back to 1m today having been placed at the trip earlier in his career though he last ran over 1m2f. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 158 runs at Redcar while the jockey is 11% from nine rides here.
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11Leelawadee47/100
Leelawadee is a modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in five runs this year, most recently finishing second at this track over 7f. Steps up to a mile for the first time today, a trip she has tried once before without success. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 9% strike rate here, which is in line with their overall records.
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12Falcon Nine46/100
Falcon Nine is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place three times from his last six starts yet has never won a handicap. He has only run once at Redcar and finished seventh, while his yard's modest 9% strike rate here from 171 runs adds little encouragement. Dropping back to a trip where he has placed three times from 13 starts looks the main positive on good ground where he is 2-13.
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13Sunny Orange45/100
Sunny Orange is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place three times from his last six starts but lacks any real punch at the finish. He has shown some ability on good ground and has won at this trip in the past, though he steps back from 1m2f today. The yard's modest record at Redcar is offset by the jockey's solid strike-rate here, but four runs at the track without a place is hardly encouraging.
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14Eeetee43/100
Eeetee is a limited performer who has won four times at this track from nine starts yet has shown very little spark in 2024. Recent form of 780-89 plus a modest strike-rate for both trainer and jockey at Redcar point to another tough day. Good-ground wins at today's trip are on his side but look too far in the past to inspire confidence.
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15The New Bay Pearl42/100
The New Bay Pearl is a limited performer who has been consistent at a low level without winning in 14 starts. Steps up in trip to 1m where he has placed twice from eight attempts though he showed no spark on good ground in three previous runs. Trainer has a modest 2% strike rate here from 49 runs while jockey fares better with a 20% record from 66 rides.
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16Fate's Gambit42/100
Fate's Gambit is a limited performer on the balance of nine runs and recent form that has offered little encouragement. The yard and jockey both have modest records at Redcar and the horse is unproven on good ground while stepping up in trip for the first time since an unsuccessful try at a mile. Stall one could be some help but overall there are too many unknowns here.
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17Havana Mojito40/100
Havana Mojito is a limited performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, placing in four of his last six starts without winning. He steps up to a trip he has won over before, which looks a positive, and he has handled good ground in the past. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Redcar.
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18Yoko39/100
Yoko is a limited performer who has shown little since a pair of placed efforts on AW early last year. Steps up to a mile for the first time today which asks a fresh question of her, while the wide draw in stall 16 is no help on this track. Trainer strikes at only 4% here from 49 runs.
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19Here Comes Louie38/100
Here Comes Louie is a limited horse who has shown just modest placed form at this trip without winning. Has been below that level in two runs here and looks unfavourably drawn in stall 14 on good ground. Trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Redcar but the jockey is operating at only 9%.
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20Oilisa29/100
Oilisa is a limited performer who has struggled since winning a 1m handicap here last summer. Dropping back in trip looks a plus given a previous 2-from-7 record at this distance, though the wide draw in stall 20 is a clear negative. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Redcar.
KTB verdict
This looks a trappy Class 6 handicap where the strong pace should play into the hands of those who race from off the pace. Yafaarr is the KTB Selection having shown fair form over longer trips on his last two starts and with a course win on his record he can capitalise if the leaders go too hard. His hold-up style is ideal given the pace shape and the drop in class is another positive. Main dangers include Pisanello who arrives in excellent heart with three wins from five and a strong course record, and Perfidia who is a regular on the premises at Redcar and likely to be prominent. Degale and We've Got This are others who can feature if the race develops as expected.
KTB Selection Yafaarr
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 9 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Yafaarr | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Pisanello | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Degale | 20/1 | 7Bet |
| Perfidia | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| We've Got This | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Rwenearlytheredad | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Beckon | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Balmoral Boy | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Captain Corelli | 30/1 | 7Bet |
| Lever Up | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Leelawadee | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Falcon Nine | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Sunny Orange | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Eeetee | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| The New Bay Pearl | 9/1 | Coral |
| Fate's Gambit | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Havana Mojito | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Yoko | 10/1 | William Hill |
| Here Comes Louie | 9/1 | 7Bet |
| Oilisa | 25/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:54 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and has won once from five runs at Redcar?
Yafaarr is dropping in class and has won once from five runs at this track.
How many recent wins has Pisanello recorded from his last five starts?
Pisanello has three wins from his last five starts.
Which front-runner has been placed three times from seven runs at Redcar without winning?
Perfidia has been placed three times from seven runs at Redcar without winning.
What is the course record for Eeetee at Redcar?
Eeetee has won four times at this track from nine starts.
Which horse is making its first run at Redcar while dropping in class?
Degale is making his first run at Redcar while dropping in class.
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