4:35 Ascot
This Class 2 Balmoral Handicap over a mile at Ascot on good ground features a field of 20 with a notably strong pace expected. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, led by Room Service on 73, closely followed by Hickory on 72, with the remainder of the principals ranging from 65 down to 58. Most of the field are hold-up types, which aligns with the assessment that the strong early pace could collapse late and play into the hands of those coming from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up and the pace shape rated as strong with high confidence, the race is set to be run at a solid gallop from the outset. Scoville and Whip Cracker are the types to take the race on or race prominently, while the majority of the principals and field including Room Service, Hickory, Ebt's Guard, Indalo and Torito are all habitual hold-up performers who produce their effort late. The key question is whether the pace will prove too strong for the leaders and allow the hold-up horses to pick up the pieces in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Room Service KTB Selection73/100
Room Service is a smart performer who showed his best when winning a good race on his latest start. He has a solid record on good ground and the yard's strong record at Ascot adds some encouragement, though he has never won at this trip and is drawn wide today. First run at the track so that side remains an unknown. The five-year-old is rated 109 and arrives with recent form figures of 875-10. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be well suited if the race develops as anticipated with a strong pace. Jamie Osborne has a 13% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1.7 from 253 runs while William Carver has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.51 from 26 rides. Dropping in class from a wide draw of 15.
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2Hickory72/100
Hickory is a useful performer with a solid record at Ascot, where he has won four times from 14 starts. He steps up to a mile for the first time since last year having won twice at the trip earlier in his career, though his most recent efforts have been over seven furlongs. The yard has a good 13% strike rate at the track from a large sample while Saffie is aboard. Rated 99, the eight-year-old has recent form figures of 061510 and usually races held up, producing his effort late. He has a record of one win from ten on good ground with six places. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 12% strike rate together with an A/E of 0.94 from 994 runs.
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3Ebt's Guard65/100
Ebt's Guard is a useful performer who has won twice at Ascot from nine runs and also has a solid record at today's trip. Recent form is ordinary for this level but the horse has been competitive in stronger races and handles good ground. Trainer's record here is above average while the jockey's strike-rate is modest. Rated 102, the five-year-old has recent form figures of 439443 and is another who is usually held up, producing his effort late. He has a record of one win from six on good ground with three places. The trainer and jockey show an 11% strike rate together with an A/E of 0.89 from 599 runs.
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4Indalo63/100
Indalo is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing third on his only visit. He drops back to a trip he has won four times from nine starts and acts on good ground. The yard's solid record here adds some confidence though his recent form has been mixed. Rated 103, the five-year-old has recent form figures of -23109 and is usually held up, producing his effort late. He has a record of one win from four on good ground with four places. The trainer and jockey show a 21% strike rate together with an A/E of 0.88 from 1366 runs.
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5Torito58/100
Torito is a useful performer who has shown up well at this track without winning, finishing third and fourth from three runs. Drops back to a trip he has won over in the past though his recent form has been patchy and the yard's strike-rate here is only modest. James Doyle's solid record at Ascot offers some encouragement on good ground. Rated 101, the six-year-old has recent form figures of 6364-0 and is usually held up, producing his effort late. He has been placed once from two starts on good ground. The trainer and jockey show a 20% strike rate together with an A/E of 0.96 from 46 runs.
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6Colori Forever58/100
Colori Forever is a useful performer who has already won over this course. Has mixed form this year but has placed on good ground and at this trip, while the yard and jockey both have solid records at Ascot. Stall 14 is the main negative from a wide draw.
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7Persica56/100
Persica is a smart performer who has won three times at this trip and handles good ground. Has run three times at Ascot without placing and the yard's modest strike rate here adds no encouragement. Recent form is solid but the track record remains a clear negative.
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8Mister Winston56/100
Mister Winston is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip but has struggled to make an impact in stronger company this year. Has run twice at Ascot without placing and the first-time headgear is now fitted after a string of ordinary efforts. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track though the yard's strike-rate here is only modest.
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9Gavriel53/100
Gavriel is a useful performer who has already won over this course and distance. Dropping back from 1m1f looks a sensible move after a solid recent sequence that includes a win and two places from his last three starts. The Gosden yard's 14% strike rate at Ascot from a big sample gives plenty of confidence in the preparation.
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10Classic51/100
Classic is a useful performer who has run well at Ascot on occasions, finishing second and fourth from four starts here. He has won twice on good ground and twice at this trip, though his recent form has been mixed and he has been beaten on his last three outings. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track adds a note of caution.
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11Orandi50/100
Orandi is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip but arrives in inconsistent form and was well beaten on his only previous run at Ascot. Drops back from a mile and a quarter which should suit him on balance, while the good ground is also fine given his record. Trainer operates at a 7% strike rate here from 27 runs.
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12Valvano50/100
Valvano is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a 7f win last time out. He steps up to a trip he has won over before but has shown little on good ground in three attempts. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ascot.
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13Bullet Point50/100
Bullet Point is a useful performer who has finished a close second in all three runs at this track. Consistent at this trip with four wins from twelve attempts and a solid record on good ground. High-class yard has a respectable record here though the jockey is operating at a similar level.
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14Fifth Column49/100
Fifth Column is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip but has been below form on his last two starts. He is 0-4 at Ascot with no placed efforts from four runs here and the first-time headgear is now reached for. The Gosden yard and Buick both have solid 14% strike rates at the track.
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15Whip Cracker48/100
Whip Cracker is a useful performer who has shown his best at this trip in the past and is stepping back up in distance today after a recent 7f run. Has placed five times from nine starts on good ground but his record at Ascot reads poorly with two runs yielding a 26th and a 14th. Trainer's modest 3% strike-rate here is a concern while the jockey has a solid 12% record at the track.
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16Jagged Edge48/100
Jagged Edge is a smart performer who has won four times at this trip from eight attempts and boasts a solid record on good ground with two wins and a place from three starts. Recent form of 103013 shows real competitiveness at this level yet he was well beaten when tried here once before. Trainer has only four runs at Ascot so far which is too small a sample to judge while the wide draw in stall 12 adds another question.
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17Tribal Chief47/100
Tribal Chief is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing third on his latest visit. He has a solid record at this trip and on good ground, though his recent form has been a bit up and down. The trainer's modest record at Ascot is a slight negative.
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18Scoville47/100
Scoville is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip. He ran well to finish third in a similar race here last time and has solid placed form on good ground. Haggas has a good record at Ascot but both he and Marquand are operating below their usual strike rates at the track.
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19Excellent Believe43/100
Excellent Believe is a useful performer who has shown steady placed form this year without winning. He has already won over today's trip but steps back up in distance having last run over 7f, while his sole Ascot run was poor. The yard's small sample here makes their record hard to read, though Keane's modest 6% strike rate from 126 rides at the track is well established.
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20Brian42/100
Brian is a useful performer who has run well in places at Ascot without winning, finishing third on his most recent visit. He has shown better form over shorter trips than this mile and his record on good ground is limited to a single run. Trainer and jockey both operate at a low strike rate here.
KTB verdict
Room Service is the KTB Selection. He is a smart performer who showed his best when winning a good race on his latest start, has a solid record on good ground, and benefits from the yard's strong record at Ascot. His hold-up style should be ideally suited if the strong pace collapses late as anticipated. The main dangers are Hickory, who boasts four wins from 14 starts at the track, and Ebt's Guard, who has won twice here from nine runs and has a solid record at the trip, along with Indalo and Torito who have both shown up well at Ascot in the past.
KTB Selection Room Service
This is the narrative read of the 4:35 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ascot results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ascot racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How many runners have previous winning form at Ascot?
Hickory has won four times from 14 starts here, Ebt's Guard has won twice from nine, Colori Forever has won once from two, and Gavriel has won once from one.
Which horses are likely to make the running given the strong pace shape?
Whip Cracker tends to make the running or race on the pace, and Scoville is a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which trainer has the strongest Ascot strike rate among those with significant runners?
Jamie Osborne has a 13% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1.7 from 253 runs.
How many of the principals are rated as usually held up?
All five principals – Room Service, Hickory, Ebt's Guard, Indalo and Torito – are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse is dropping in class and stepping back to a trip it has won over before?
Gavriel is dropping back from 1m1f to a trip over which it has won, having already won over this course and distance.
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