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Trainer profile

Brian Francis Cawley

215 runners in the lifetime window · 46 individual horses
As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 12 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
10–215
Wins / Runs
4.7%
Strike rate
n=215
24 (11%)
Placed
1.29
Fair A/E
n=215 · 1.04 incl. margin
−105.50
£1 level stake
n=215 at SP · −49.1%
£128k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.29).

Deterministic profile computed from 215 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Mr P J Cawley: 0% from 72
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=51, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.80 and −124.50 to a £1 stake over 148 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Mr P J Cawley rides 33% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (0% vs 4.7%, A/E 0.00). The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (8.1%, n=37). The record reads poorly in Chase races — 0% over 46 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.7
n=51 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −51.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.7
n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −28.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.7
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.7
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.7
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 3.27 · £1 +2.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.7%−2.0
n=148 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −124.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.7
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Mr P J Cawley 0% vs 4.7% · n=72
With horses switching code 0% vs 4.7% · n=51
In Chase races 0% vs 4.7% · n=46
Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 4.7% · n=32
In Hurdle races 7.2% vs 4.7% · n=138
Off a 31-60-day break 8.1% vs 4.7% · n=37
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 138 10 7.2% −28.50
Chase 46 0 0% −46.00
Flat 29 0 0% −29.00
NH Flat 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 77 2 2.6% −27.00
Soft 59 4 6.8% −37.00
Good to Soft 36 2 5.6% −11.50
Heavy 29 1 3.4% −25.00
Good to Firm 7 1 14.3% +2.00
Standard (AW) 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Ballinrobe 30 1 3.3% −26.00
Galway 24 2 8.3% −12.00
Sligo 21 3 14.3% +38.00
Limerick 15 0 0% −15.00
Kilbeggan 14 0 0% −14.00
Roscommon 14 1 7.1% +1.00
Cork 12 0 0% −12.00
Punchestown 10 0 0% −10.00
Clonmel 7 1 14.3% −2.50
Killarney 7 0 0% −7.00
Dundalk (AW) 7 0 0% −7.00
Thurles 6 0 0% −6.00
Fairyhouse 6 0 0% −6.00
Naas 5 0 0% −5.00
Listowel 5 1 20% +0.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 6 1 16.7% +3.50
Class 5 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 1 50% 3.27 +2.50
2nd–3rd fav 15 3 20% 1.45 −0.50
4th–6th fav 36 3 8.3% 1.41 −10.50
7th+ in betting 162 3 1.9% 0.92 −97.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
87% completed · 184 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 46 80.4% 1 1 7 0 0
Hurdle 138 89.1% 1 1 12 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Trendsetter (IRE)from Micky Hammond 23 1 4 19 Aug 20
Think Of Me (IRE)from Fergal O'Brien 23 0 5 7 Aug 18
Presenting Dylan (IRE)from Mrs Denise Foster 18 0 0 27 Sep 23
In The Minus (IRE)from Sean Davis 16 2 5 24 Oct 26
Four Courts (IRE) 12 0 0 30 Jul 21
Nellie Pledge (IRE)then Paul John Gilligan 9 2 3 23 Nov 17
Ask Blossomfort (IRE) 8 1 1 28 Dec 21
Onenightintown (IRE)then Micky Hammond 7 0 0 1 Oct 20
Froggy (IRE)from G T Lynch 7 0 0 25 Apr 17
Hope She Flies (IRE) 6 2 2 2 Oct 25
Ashtarak (IRE)from D K Weld 6 0 0 8 Dec 22
Ni Mhaonaigh (IRE)from Barry T Murphy 5 0 0 24 Sep 21
All 46 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 46 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from D K Weld (2) and G T Lynch (2); 18 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Gary Hanmer (3); 35 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00000026122370
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMr P J Cawley
33% of all rides
0% SR · A/E 0.00
RiderRWSR£1
Mr P J Cawley 72 0 0% −72.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→
10
Archived wins
£128k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 3 wins
Nellie Pledge (IRE) — John Mulhern Mares Handicap Hurdle Ballinrobe · Sep 2017
£13,530
Whatsafellatodo (IRE) — Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle Listowel · Sep 2018
£12,320
Whatsafellatodo (IRE) — GalwayPubs.com Rated Novice Hurdle Galway · Oct 2018
£10,472
Notable horses
In The Minus (IRE) Nellie Pledge (IRE) Hope She Flies (IRE) Whatsafellatodo (IRE) Trendsetter (IRE) Ask Blossomfort (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Germany (USA) 0% · 0–23
Progeny have won 10.8% of 835 runs since 2008 (68 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 14% from 121.
Mastercraftsman (IRE) 4.3% · 1–23
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,646 runs since 2013 (842 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.7% from 329.
Dylan Thomas (IRE) 0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,497 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Belardo (IRE) 12.5% · 2–16
Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,749 runs since 2020 (281 horses).
Court Cave (IRE) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,969 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.
Mahler (GB) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,894 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 215 · newest first

The latest 50 of 215 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 April 2016 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Alwaysgoinhome (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle Paddy Power From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran PU 200/1
24 Oct 26 Cheltenham In The Minus (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Masterson Holdings Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 25/1
11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) In The Minus (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Michael Cawe Suspended Ceilings Handicap Hurdle22f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 2nd 17/2
19 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) In The Minus (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Francie 'Banger' Burns Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 7/1
06 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) In The Minus (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Lighthouse At Clifford Electrical Handicap Hurdle21f · Good · 8 ran 1st 40/1
27 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) In The Minus (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald EASYFIX Iggy Daly Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 20 ran 18th 40/1
15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Positive Energy (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald T. Murray & Son Ltd. Beginners Chase20f · Yielding · 12 ran 11th 125/1
08 Jun 26 Roscommon Positive Energy (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald McGowan Accountancy Services Novice Chase16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 8 ran 5th 200/1
05 Jun 26 Fairyhouse In The Minus (IRE)J: Ben Coen Racing Again Next Friday Handicap (0-60) (Div 2)10f · Good · 15 ran 10th 11/2
26 May 26 Ballinrobe In The Minus (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald KPMG Hurdle16f · Good · 5 ran 5th 40/1
25 May 26 Ballinrobe Positive Energy (IRE)J: Mr P J Cawley McHale Tiger Roll Beginners Chase17f · Good · 12 ran 9th 150/1
08 May 26 Ballinrobe In The Minus (IRE)J: Ben Coen McGrath Limestone Works Handicap (0-60)9.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 5th 12/1
01 May 26 Punchestown Positive Energy (IRE)J: Mr P J Cawley FRS Fencing Handicap Hurdle16f · Yielding · 24 ran 19th 100/1
30 Apr 26 Punchestown Alwaysgoinhome (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Specialist Group Novice Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 11 ran PU 300/1
12 Mar 26 Limerick In The Minus (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald John Buckley Engineering Ltd Hurdle17f · Heavy · 5 ran 5th 50/1
30 Jan 26 Catterick Bid Up (IRE)J: Mr P J Cawley racingtv.com/freetrial Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 15.5f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 11/1
26 Dec 25 Down Royal Bid Up (IRE)J: Mr P J Cawley BAR 1 Betting Handicap Chase (0-100)20.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 9th 25/1
13 Nov 25 Punchestown In The Minus (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Matchbook Betting Podcast 3-Y-O Hurdle16f · Heavy · 6 ran 5th 9/2
25 Oct 25 Galway In The Minus (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald QuinnBet 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 9 ran 1st 6/1
02 Oct 25 Clonmel Hope She Flies (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Yielding · 16 ran 1st 7/2F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Brian Francis Cawley's strike rate?
Brian Francis Cawley has won 10 of 215 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Brian Francis Cawley do best at?
Ballinrobe by strike rate: 1 wins from 30 runners (3.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Brian Francis Cawley?
Mr P J Cawley, with 72 runners since 2008 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 0 (0%).
Is Brian Francis Cawley in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Brian Francis Cawley's Fair A/E?
1.29, from 215 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 13 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).