What is David Arbuthnot's strike rate?

David Arbuthnot has won 128 of 983 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David Arbuthnot do best at?

Towcester by strike rate: 9 wins from 31 runners (29%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for David Arbuthnot?

Tom Cannon, with 148 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (10.8%).

What is David Arbuthnot's Fair A/E?

1.17, from 981 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

David Arbuthnot

983 runners in the lifetime window · 104 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Aug 2019

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

128–983

Wins / Runs

13%

Strike rate

n=983

305 (31%)

Placed

1.17

Fair A/E

n=981 · 1.00 incl. margin

−189.72

£1 level stake

n=983 at SP · −19.3%

£850k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 80 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.17).

Deterministic profile computed from 983 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Feb–May 42.2% when favourite Tom Cannon: 10.8% from 148 Sent off the favourite in 9% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Towcester (29%, n=31), clear of the yard's 13% baseline. Debutants struggle at 6.8% (n=59, Fair A/E 0.97). Tom Cannon rode 15% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (10.8% vs 13%, A/E 1.16) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record read poorly in Class 2 — 3% over 66 runners, 10pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the 2 Million totescoop6 November Heritage Handicap at Doncaster (Nov 2008, £52,964). The stable star of the record was Coda Agency (GB) — 11 wins from 58 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Feb–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9.6%−3.4

n=198 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −59.29

New recruits · first run for the yard

4.8%−8.2

n=21 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −6.00

Debutants · first career start

6.8%−6.2

n=59 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −30.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

11.1%−1.9

n=27 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +2.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

16.7%+3.7

n=24 · A/E 2.26 · £1 +13.50

When favourite

42.2%

n=90 · A/E 1.36 · £1 +17.22

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.7%−4.3

n=138 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −43.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.3%−8.7

n=23 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −18.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Towcester 29% vs 13% · n=31

With Daryl Jacob 23.9% vs 13% · n=92

In Class 2 3% vs 13% · n=66

With Timmy Murphy 22% vs 13% · n=41

On last-time-out winners 19.7% vs 13% · n=122

In Class 1 4.8% vs 13% · n=42

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 421 50 11.9% −75.17

Hurdle 308 36 11.7% −76.27

Chase 179 32 17.9% −10.03

NH Flat 75 10 13.3% −28.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 272 31 11.4% −69.79

Good 239 34 14.2% −46.14

Good to Soft 163 23 14.1% −5.86

Soft 131 15 11.5% −24.30

Good to Firm 121 14 11.6% −42.50

Heavy 44 6 13.6% −10.00

Firm 13 5 38.5% +8.87

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 115 14 12.2% −10.17

Lingfield (AW) 109 9 8.3% −46.04

Fontwell 51 6 11.8% −20.60

Sandown 50 6 12% −10.14

Kempton 43 7 16.3% +3.45

Newbury 37 3 8.1% −13.00

Wincanton 32 6 18.8% −2.40

Towcester 31 9 29% +5.03

Wolverhampton (AW) 31 4 12.9% −14.34

Lingfield 30 3 10% −14.25

Ascot 29 1 3.4% −23.50

Stratford 26 3 11.5% −3.60

Huntingdon 26 4 15.4% −4.50

Exeter 23 2 8.7% −18.15

Warwick 23 3 13% −2.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 284 49 17.3% −1.97

Class 5 265 30 11.3% −85.54

Class 6 170 29 17.1% +12.24

Class 3 153 16 10.5% −44.45

Class 2 66 2 3% −36.00

Class 1 42 2 4.8% −31.00

Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 113 43 38.1% 1.34 +15.72

2nd–3rd fav 244 42 17.2% 1.05 −10.44

4th–6th fav 332 36 10.8% 1.34 −9.00

7th+ in betting 294 7 2.4% 0.65 −186.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Shaded Edge (GB) 45 4 17 25 May 11

Tingo In The Tale (IRE)then Sophie Leech 41 3 12 10 Aug 16

Leelu (GB) 40 4 14 31 Jan 13

Snowball (IRE) 36 3 8 18 Feb 19

Danglydontask (GB)then Mike Murphy 36 4 7 26 Oct 18

Coda Agency (GB)then Brendan Powell 33 10 11 6 Jul 11

Strollawaynow (IRE) 29 3 8 21 Jul 19

Topolski (IRE)from Andrew Balding 28 3 4 26 Dec 16

Starluck (IRE)from Alan Fleming 25 3 4 27 Dec 15

Bedarra Boy (GB) 23 4 11 10 Apr 11

Urcalin (FR)from L Viel 21 6 7 2 Nov 15

Shuil Royale (IRE)then Harry Fry 21 5 8 7 Feb 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 104 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 17 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Colin Tinkler (8) and Alan Fleming (4); 43 had their first archived run for this yard.

23 have since run for another yard, most often for Harry Fry (2) and Harry Whittington (2); 37 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

131618181610710214913

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTom Cannon

15% of all rides
10.8% SR · A/E 1.16

RiderRWSR£1

Tom Cannon 148 16 10.8% −18.90

Daryl Jacob 92 22 23.9% +18.74

Martin Dwyer 57 6 10.5% −7.12

Seamus Durack 41 5 12.2% −10.40

Timmy Murphy 41 9 22% −2.92

Andrew Thornton 38 5 13.2% −13.29

Liam Keniry 33 3 9.1% −7.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

163

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.21m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 27 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Tropical Strait (IRE) — 2 Million totescoop6 November Heritage Handicap Doncaster · Nov 2008 · Class 2

£52,964

Oscar Park (IRE) — Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final (Listed) Cheltenham · Mar 2007 · Listed

£39,914

Topolski (IRE) — John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) Aintree · Apr 2011 · Class 1

£31,356

Notable horses

Coda Agency (GB) Shaded Edge (GB) Urcalin (FR) Mon Petite Amour (GB) Green Manalishi (GB) Shuil Royale (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Bold Edge (GB) 10% · 8–80

Progeny have won 8.1% of 886 runs since 2008 (48 horses).

King's Theatre (IRE) 22.6% · 14–62

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Oscar (IRE) 11.8% · 6–51

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Oratorio (IRE) 7.3% · 3–41

Progeny have won 10.6% of 5,063 runs since 2009 (370 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.3% from 455.

Largesse (GB) 10% · 4–40

Progeny have won 7.3% of 368 runs since 2008 (25 horses).

Alderbrook (GB) 8.3% · 3–36

Progeny have won 9.7% of 3,293 runs since 2008 (299 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,377 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,377 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 January 2005 to 1 August 2019.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Aug 19 Stratford Gabriel Archer (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan Natural Flake Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran PU 100/1

21 Jul 19 Newton Abbot Strollawaynow (IRE)J: Bryony Frost Racing Partnership Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26.5f · Good · 12 ran F 40/1

27 Jun 19 Nottingham Aria Rose (GB)J: George Bass Mansionbet 'Hands N Heels' Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 8/1

12 Jun 19 Fontwell Strollawaynow (IRE)J: Bryony Frost Happy Birthday Angela Savage 89 Today Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 20/1

29 May 19 Warwick Strollawaynow (IRE)J: Mr Benedict Shaw Agetur UK Amateur Riders' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26f · Good · 7 ran PU 25/1

22 May 19 Kempton (AW) Aria Rose (GB)J: Hayley Turner Making Waves With Gulf HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 6th 10/1

17 May 19 Aintree Neverbeen To Paris (IRE)J: Bryony Frost Follow RacingTV On Twitter Handicap HurdleClass 2 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 5th 2/1F

06 May 19 Kempton Neverbeen To Paris (IRE)J: Bryony Frost Matchbook Betting Podcast Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Good · 8 ran 1st 6/4F

23 Apr 19 Ludlow Neverbeen To Paris (IRE)J: Leighton Aspell Hereford And Worcester Animal Rescue Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Good · 12 ran 1st 8/1

22 Apr 19 Huntingdon Kap Auteuil (FR)J: Leighton Aspell Mansionbet Intermediate Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 13/2

10 Apr 19 Warwick Queens Present (IRE)J: Tom Cannon Brian Overson Stephen Allday Perpetual Plate Chase (Novices' Limited Handicap)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 7 ran PU 13/2

30 Mar 19 Stratford Eye Of An Eagle (FR)J: Jamie Moore Join Racing TV Now Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 13 ran 4th 33/1

22 Mar 19 Newbury Queens Present (IRE)J: Harry Bannister Mortgage Branch Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (For The Brown Chamberlin Trophy)Class 3 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran PU 25/1

13 Mar 19 Huntingdon Neverbeen To Paris (IRE)J: Leighton Aspell Call Star Sports On 08000 521 321 Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 16/1

05 Mar 19 Exeter Alkopop (GER)J: Tom Cannon gg.co.uk Cheltenham Festival Tips 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (Div 1)Class 4 · 23f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 80/1

26 Feb 19 Leicester Windspiel (FR)J: Bryony Frost Dan Frost Memorial Chase (Novices' Limited Handicap)Class 3 · 16f · Good To Firm · 6 ran F 3/1

25 Feb 19 Plumpton Neverbeen To Paris (IRE)J: Bryony Frost Book For Our Easter Festival Now Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 6th 20/1

18 Feb 19 Lingfield Snowball (IRE)J: James Bowen bettingrant.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Soft · 12 ran 7th 10/1

18 Feb 19 Lingfield (AW) Eye Of An Eagle (FR)J: Tom Cannon Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Standard Open NH Flat Race (AW)Class 5 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 7th 12/1

02 Feb 19 Sandown Neverbeen To Paris (IRE)J: Bryony Frost 888Sport Novices' HurdleClass 3 · 16f · Soft · 12 ran 5th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is David Arbuthnot's strike rate?: David Arbuthnot has won 128 of 983 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Arbuthnot do best at?: Towcester by strike rate: 9 wins from 31 runners (29%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for David Arbuthnot?: Tom Cannon, with 148 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (10.8%).
What is David Arbuthnot's Fair A/E?: 1.17, from 981 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.