What is Donald McCain's strike rate?

Donald McCain has won 1,763 of 11,534 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.3% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Donald McCain do best at?

Sedgefield by strike rate: 167 wins from 813 runners (20.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Donald McCain?

Jason Maguire, with 2,468 runners since 2008 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 512 (20.7%).

Is Donald McCain in form?

In the last 14 days: 22 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 9.1%. That is below the baseline of 15.3% since 2008.

What is Donald McCain's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 11,501 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Donald McCain

11,534 runners in the lifetime window · 1,149 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 10.1% of 557 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 4 Nov 2026.

Last runner yesterday 94% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

1,763–11,534

Wins / Runs

15.3%

Strike rate

n=11,534

4,032 (35%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=11,501 · 0.86 incl. margin

−2,369.90

£1 level stake

n=11,530 at SP · −20.6%

£16.6m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 610 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 15% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98). The yard is quiet just now — 2 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 11,534 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Aug 39.7% when favourite Jason Maguire: 20.7% from 2,468 Sends off the favourite in 15% of races

The read

It is weakest at Cheltenham (5.7% over 212 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 7.8% (n=335, Fair A/E 0.90). Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 2 from 22 runners in the last 14 days (9.1%, 6.2pts below the 15.3% baseline). Jason Maguire rides 21% of the entries and beats the yard's average (20.7% vs 15.3%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. 26 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the John Smith's Grand National Chase at Aintree (Apr 2011, £535,135). The stable star of the record: Presentandcounting (IRE) — 15 wins from 52 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

11.7%−3.6

n=2,389 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −505.14

New recruits · first run for the yard

13.9%−1.4

n=431 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −109.97

Debutants · first career start

15.9%+0.6

n=655 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −143.10

First-time headgear · true-first definition

12.2%−3.1

n=476 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −103.15

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

13.3%−2.0

n=323 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −71.39

When favourite

39.7%

n=1,678 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −175.74

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

12.1%−3.2

n=2,965 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −609.35

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.8%−7.5

n=335 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −179.90

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 23.9% vs 15.3% · n=1,777

With A P McCoy 27.3% vs 15.3% · n=139

With Adrian Lane 6.6% vs 15.3% · n=592

At Aintree 6.5% vs 15.3% · n=418

With Paddy Aspell 0% vs 15.3% · n=32

At Cheltenham 5.7% vs 15.3% · n=212

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 7,004 1079 15.4% −1,399.35

Chase 2,977 487 16.4% −608.42

NH Flat 871 141 16.2% −216.62

Flat 682 56 8.2% −145.51

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 4,426 642 14.5% −994.37

Soft 2,579 406 15.7% −575.67

Good to Soft 2,576 368 14.3% −463.50

Heavy 1,065 203 19.1% −136.61

Good to Firm 601 114 19% −111.43

Standard (AW) 275 27 9.8% −85.22

Firm 10 2 20% −6.60

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Bangor-on-Dee 1,292 244 18.9% −76.77

Sedgefield 813 167 20.5% −122.72

Carlisle 736 113 15.4% −235.41

Uttoxeter 669 88 13.2% −132.47

Catterick 564 99 17.6% −42.71

Musselburgh 501 101 20.2% −18.14

Haydock 483 86 17.8% −35.58

Kelso 477 88 18.4% −64.05

Wetherby 449 64 14.3% −154.27

Aintree 418 27 6.5% −205.73

Cartmel 388 71 18.3% −85.27

Newcastle 350 59 16.9% −33.91

Ayr 349 68 19.5% −104.45

Doncaster 338 41 12.1% +41.89

Market Rasen 336 35 10.4% −106.54

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 5,562 942 16.9% −982.04

Class 5 2,218 319 14.4% −425.25

Class 3 1,830 283 15.5% −362.67

Class 2 804 88 10.9% −182.88

Class 6 574 85 14.8% −159.85

Class 1 535 44 8.2% −252.71

Class 7 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,916 722 37.7% 1.02 −193.66

2nd–3rd fav 3,780 677 17.9% 0.96 −650.74

4th–6th fav 3,633 291 8% 0.95 −741.50

7th+ in betting 2,201 70 3.2% 0.87 −784.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 4,259 710 16.7% −711.10

1m5f – 2m 4,198 635 15.1% −875.00

2m5f – 3m 1,963 300 15.3% −462.87

Over 3m 620 83 13.4% −174.92

1m2f – 1m4f 212 14 6.6% −106.51

6f – 7f 160 11 6.9% +3.00

1m – 1m1f 72 4 5.6% −35.50

Under 6f 50 6 12% −7.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 488 60 12.3% −56.93

2009 488 78 16% −112.57

2010 564 95 16.8% −137.33

2011 686 135 19.7% −51.08

2012 754 169 22.4% −65.72

2013 784 121 15.4% −260.24

2014 782 132 16.9% −256.65

2015 601 63 10.5% −271.01

2016 547 73 13.3% −19.44

2017 636 105 16.5% −28.40

2018 653 87 13.3% −168.57

2019 567 65 11.5% −175.05

2020 449 51 11.4% −86.45

2021 668 132 19.8% −42.91

2022 702 146 20.8% −48.44

2023 690 96 13.9% −125.22

2024 605 63 10.4% −207.29

2025 489 50 10.2% −141.42

2026 381 42 11% −115.18

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 6,551 813 12.4% −1,220.65

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 3,702 507 13.7% −597.25

5-7 runners 3,524 645 18.3% −676.16

11-13 runners 2,264 260 11.5% −609.82

14-16 runners 866 76 8.8% −237.00

2-4 runners 766 249 32.5% −50.27

17+ runners 410 24 5.9% −199.40

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

88.7% completed · 9,981 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 2,977 81.4% 132 76 340 5 2

Hurdle 7,004 91.8% 148 66 337 11 13

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Prince Khurram (GB)from Jean-Pierre Carvalho 58 8 18 15 Sep 21

Ubaltique (FR)from A Chaille-Chaille 56 10 20 27 Feb 20

Bourne (GB)from Luca Cumani 54 6 17 3 Dec 17

Presentandcounting (IRE) 52 15 21 4 Sep 26

Paws For Thought (IRE)from Tom Dascombe 47 6 14 19 Sep 26

Witness In Court (IRE) 47 8 12 20 Jul 19

Danceintothelight (GB)from Micky Hammond 46 5 17 30 Aug 19

Valleyofmilan (IRE) 46 8 16 20 May 19

Beach Break (GB)from Ralph Beckett 44 5 14 14 May 22

Desert Cry (IRE)from A & G Botti 44 10 17 5 Nov 17

Finisk River (GB) 42 7 20 25 Jul 25

Nefyn Bay (GB) 42 9 15 23 Feb 20

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,149 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 27 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Colin Bowe (3); 32 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard; 51 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

2 from 22 9.1% · −6.2pts vs baseline

Last 14 days9.1%

Lifetime base15.3%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

161615121613171913131617

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJason Maguire

21% of all rides
20.7% SR · A/E 1.01

RiderRWSR£1

Jason Maguire 2,468 512 20.7% −355.18

Brian Hughes 2,255 442 19.6% −441.91

Theo Gillard 1,092 110 10.1% −191.41

William Kennedy 783 118 15.1% −45.75

Adrian Lane 592 39 6.6% −336.79

Henry Brooke 558 89 15.9% −68.43

Abbie McCain 291 29 10% −64.41

Peter Kavanagh 250 33 13.2% −85.75

James Cowley 244 29 11.9% −100.87

Lorcan Murtagh 235 25 10.6% −71.12

Wilson Renwick 187 28 15% −73.25

Charlie Maggs 170 21 12.4% +11.83

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,835

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£17.2m

Prize money

2012

Best season · 169 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

BallaBriggs (IRE) — John Smith's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Aintree · Apr 2011 · Class 1

£535,135

Overturn (IRE) — Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (grade A) Galway · Jul 2010 · Grade A

£150,500

Overturn (IRE) — John Smith's Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Newcastle · Jun 2010 · Class 2

£107,888

Notable horses

Presentandcounting (IRE) Geromino (FR) Overturn (IRE) Minella Trump (IRE) Dear Sire (FR) Ubaltique (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Presenting (GB) 14.6% · 57–391

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Oscar (IRE) 18.4% · 63–342

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Overbury (IRE) 13.7% · 37–271

Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,657 runs since 2008 (423 horses).

Flemensfirth (USA) 23.8% · 63–265

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,287 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Milan (GB) 18.4% · 47–256

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,869 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Shantou (USA) 20.2% · 50–248

Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,830 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 12,159 · newest first

The latest 50 of 12,159 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 April 2005 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Nov 26 Sedgefield American Empire (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Sedgefield Christmas Jumper Raceday 22nd December Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 11 ran 6th 5/1

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Moonlight Melody (GB)J: Pierre-Louis Jamin AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 18/1

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Soldiers Trick (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Pricedup Bet Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 4th 9/1

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Joltin N Jiving (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Pricedup Bet Gordon Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 21f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 9/4

31 Oct 26 Ayr Serious Chat (IRE)J: Theo Gillard United Council Of Racecourse Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 9/1

31 Oct 26 Ayr Battle Of Arsuf (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Ben Arthur's Bothy Of Arrochar Ebf 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 12/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Dino Bellagio (GB)J: Theo Gillard Quinnbet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 4/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Soldier In Mayo (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Ted Anderson Dixon Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 5/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Dolly Drama (IRE)J: Kielan Woods Support The Royal British Legion Poppy Appeal Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (Herring Queen Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 12th 10/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Phantom Of Delight (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Support The Royal British Legion Poppy Appeal Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (Herring Queen Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 100/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Count Of Vendome (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Kalahari King 'chasing Excellence' Beginners' Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 16f · Good · 3 ran 2nd 2/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Cahier's Den (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Overton Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 15/2

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Laristote (FR)J: Theo Gillard Bangor-On-Dee Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 17.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 4/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Inedit D'amour (FR)J: Harry Brown Bangor-On-Dee Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 17.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 2nd 3/1F

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee They Want Me (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Mount Vines Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 1st 11/1

27 Oct 26 Newcastle Roarin' Success (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Dogs Welcome At The Border Minstrel Pub Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 3/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Iamyouare (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Kellyhill Financial Planning Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Mares' Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 10 ran 1st 11/2

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Godfrey Bouillon (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Jodie Standing's Point-To-Point Recruits Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good · 11 ran 4th 10/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Speed Davis (FR)J: Harry Brown Spooktacular Family Day Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 5/1

26 Oct 26 Hereford Talka (FR)J: Kielan Woods Betting.Bet Play Champion Tipster Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 2nd 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 4 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0) · to 3 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Donald McCain's strike rate?: Donald McCain has won 1,763 of 11,534 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.3% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Donald McCain do best at?: Sedgefield by strike rate: 167 wins from 813 runners (20.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Donald McCain?: Jason Maguire, with 2,468 runners since 2008 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 512 (20.7%).
Is Donald McCain in form?: In the last 14 days: 22 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 9.1%. That is below the baseline of 15.3% since 2008.
What is Donald McCain's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 11,501 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.