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Trainer profile

Fred Watson

359 runners in the lifetime window · 49 individual horses
As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 13 days ago 97% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
10–359
Wins / Runs
2.8%
Strike rate
n=359
37 (10%)
Placed
0.75
Fair A/E
n=356 · 0.63 incl. margin
−246.50
£1 level stake
n=359 at SP · −68.7%
£64,912
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.75).

Deterministic profile computed from 359 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Graham Lee: 5.9% from 51
The read

The record is strongest at Ayr (8.3%, n=36), clear of the yard's 2.8% baseline. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 0.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.38 and −105.00 to a £1 stake over 118 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Graham Lee rides 14% of the entries and edges the yard's average (5.9% vs 2.8%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (6.5%, n=93) and at trips under 6f (6.3%, n=32). The market has consistently overbet the yard off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.00 across 74 runners (0% strike, −74.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0.8%−2.0
n=118 · A/E 0.38 · £1 −105.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.8
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.8
n=24 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −24.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
4.3%+1.5
n=23 · A/E 2.64 · £1 +0.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4%+1.2
n=25 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −18.00
When favourite
16.7%
n=6 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −1.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.4%−1.4
n=74 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −48.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Ayr 8.3% vs 2.8% · n=36
Off a 15-30-day break 6.5% vs 2.8% · n=93
With Graham Lee 5.9% vs 2.8% · n=51
At trips under 6f 6.3% vs 2.8% · n=32
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 2.8% · n=74
Off a 31-60-day break 0% vs 2.8% · n=56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 350 10 2.9% −237.50
Hurdle 5 0 0% −5.00
NH Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good to Firm 98 1 1% −87.00
Good 97 3 3.1% −58.00
Standard (AW) 86 3 3.5% −60.00
Good to Soft 45 2 4.4% −31.50
Soft 26 1 3.8% −3.00
Heavy 5 0 0% −5.00
Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 65 2 3.1% −43.50
Redcar 54 0 0% −54.00
Ayr 36 3 8.3% −1.50
Carlisle 29 0 0% −29.00
Musselburgh 28 2 7.1% −11.00
Catterick 23 0 0% −23.00
Newcastle 23 1 4.3% −14.00
Hamilton 22 0 0% −22.00
Beverley 21 0 0% −21.00
Thirsk 20 1 5% +6.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 15 1 6.7% −10.50
Ripon 6 0 0% −6.00
Southwell (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00
York 3 0 0% −3.00
Doncaster 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 184 8 4.3% −108.50
Class 5 145 2 1.4% −108.00
Class 4 16 0 0% −16.00
Class 7 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 3 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 8 1 12.5% 0.65 −3.50
2nd–3rd fav 24 3 12.5% 0.89 −4.50
4th–6th fav 62 4 6.5% 1.08 −22.50
7th+ in betting 265 2 0.8% 0.42 −216.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Joyful Star (GB) 45 2 10 1 Oct 21
Destination Aim (GB)from Saeed bin Suroor 37 3 6 12 Sep 20
Spokesperson (USA)from Mahmood Al Zarooni 30 3 8 21 Aug 18
Star Citizen (GB)from Charlie Appleby 26 1 3 15 Jul 23
Gleaming Arch (GB) 20 1 4 12 Aug 24
Breton Blues (GB) 17 0 1 26 Aug 18
Conjuror's Bluff (GB)from Richard Hannon Snr 16 0 0 24 Jun 17
Newspeak (IRE)from Charlie Appleby 15 0 1 4 Aug 20
Freddie Bolt (GB) 15 0 0 23 Sep 15
Sadiiki (GB) 13 0 0 16 Oct 26
Cara's Delight (AUS) 9 0 0 3 Aug 13
Dark Eclipse (IRE) 8 0 0 12 Aug 24
All 49 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 49 horses listed, 21 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John Murray (5) and Charlie Appleby (2); 28 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Garry Moss (6) and Ronald Thompson (2); 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
700020824009
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderGraham Lee
14% of all rides
5.9% SR · A/E 1.04
RiderRWSR£1
Graham Lee 51 3 5.9% −27.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
10
Archived wins
£68,669
Prize money
2015
Best season · 3 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Destination Aim (GB) — Bruce Stevenson Insurance Brokers Handicap Musselburgh · Jul 2017 · Class 5
£3,235
Joyful Star (GB) — sunbets.co.uk Top Price On All Favourites Handicap (Div 1) Newcastle (AW) · Jan 2018 · Class 6
£3,105
Star Citizen (GB) — QTS Investors In Young People Handicap Ayr · Jul 2020 · Class 6
£2,782
Notable horses
Destination Aim (GB) Spokesperson (USA) Joyful Star (GB) Star Citizen (GB) Gleaming Arch (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Teofilo (IRE) 4.4% · 2–45
Progeny have won 12.5% of 10,076 runs since 2008 (907 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7% from 625.
New Approach (IRE) 2.4% · 1–42
Progeny have won 12.6% of 6,792 runs since 2008 (685 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.9% from 101.
Dubai Destination (USA) 8.1% · 3–37
Progeny have won 11% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.
Henny Hughes (USA) 10% · 3–30
Progeny have won 8.8% of 137 runs since 2008 (16 horses).
Arabian Gleam (GB) 4.3% · 1–23
Progeny have won 7.6% of 524 runs since 2008 (39 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 12.7% from 237.
Street Cry (IRE) 0% · 0–17
Progeny have won 12.7% of 4,258 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.8% from 1,577. Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 131.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 429 · newest first

The latest 50 of 429 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 25 January 2005 to 16 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Sadiiki (GB)J: Rhys Elliott Central Employment & Training Partnership Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 40/1
12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Belgrave (GB)J: Connor Beasley Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 125/1
12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Honved (GB)J: Rhys Elliott Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 125/1
02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Sadiiki (GB)J: Rhys Elliott Armah Switchgear Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 125/1
14 Sep 26 Thirsk Honved (GB)J: Ryan Sexton Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Good · 12 ran 12th 200/1
03 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Sadiiki (GB)J: Ryan Sexton Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 66/1
02 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Honved (GB)J: Rhys Elliott High Gosforth Park Golf Club Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 150/1
07 May 26 Redcar Sadiiki (GB)J: James Sullivan Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 12th 100/1
07 May 26 Redcar Go On Ollie (GB)J: James Sullivan racingtv.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 10th 300/1
16 Dec 25 Newcastle (AW) Sadiiki (GB)J: Harry Russell Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 100/1
09 Dec 25 Newcastle (AW) Sadiiki (GB)J: Harry Russell Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 66/1
14 Oct 25 Newcastle (AW) Sadiiki (GB)J: Andrew Mullen Northumbria Leisure For Juke Boxes HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 33/1
01 Aug 25 Newcastle (AW) Sadiiki (GB)J: Harry Russell St Cuthberts Hospice Classified StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 50/1
01 Aug 25 Newcastle (AW) Matt Cool (GB)J: Harry Russell JPS Ceilings And Partitions Classified StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 250/1
20 Mar 25 Newcastle (AW) Sadiiki (GB)J: William Pyle Extra Winnings With BetUK Acca Club Classified Stakes (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 7 ran 4th 11/1
13 Mar 25 Newcastle (AW) Matt Cool (GB)J: Cam Hardie Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Classified Stakes (Div 1)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 150/1
27 Feb 25 Newcastle (AW) Sadiiki (GB)J: William Pyle BetUK: It's Where The UK Bets Classified Stakes (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 100/1
18 Oct 24 Redcar Matt Cool (GB)J: James Sullivan Join Racing TV Now Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 250/1
04 Oct 24 Newcastle (AW) Matt Cool (GB)J: James Sullivan Spindles Leisure Club Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 5 ran 5th 200/1
17 Sep 24 Redcar Sadiiki (GB)J: James Sullivan Watch RacingTV Free For 31 Days Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 8th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Fred Watson's strike rate?
Fred Watson has won 10 of 359 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.8% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Fred Watson do best at?
Ayr by strike rate: 3 wins from 36 runners (8.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Fred Watson?
Graham Lee, with 51 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (5.9%).
Is Fred Watson in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Fred Watson's Fair A/E?
0.75, from 356 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 29 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).