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Trainer profile

Niall Moran

419 runners in the lifetime window · 56 individual horses
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Oct 2017
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
16–419
Wins / Runs
3.8%
Strike rate
n=419
53 (13%)
Placed
0.77
Fair A/E
n=418 · 0.60 incl. margin
−210.50
£1 level stake
n=419 at SP · −50.2%
£215k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 40 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.77).

Deterministic profile computed from 419 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Aug–Sep Martin Harley: 4.8% from 63 Claiming riders: 3.9%
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 3.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −109.00 to a £1 stake over 232 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Martin Harley rode 15% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.8%, A/E 0.76). The yard also read well in Chase races (8.6%, n=35) and on Heavy going (7.9%, n=38). The record read poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 0% over 54 runners, 3.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m2f – 1m4f: Fair A/E 0.25 across 79 runners (1.3% strike, −70.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. Seasonally, the yard fired Aug–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2%−1.8
n=98 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −79.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.8
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
Debutants · first career start
3.6%−0.2
n=28 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −20.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
15.8%+12.0
n=19 · A/E 4.40 · £1 +40.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.8
n=24 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −24.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.9%+0.1
n=232 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −109.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.8
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With L McNiff 9.1% vs 3.8% · n=33
In Chase races 8.6% vs 3.8% · n=35
Over 1m – 1m1f 0% vs 3.8% · n=54
On Heavy going 7.9% vs 3.8% · n=38
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 1.3% vs 3.8% · n=79
Over 1m5f – 2m 6% vs 3.8% · n=84
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 43.1% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 268 7 2.6% −186.50
Hurdle 87 5 5.7% −4.00
Chase 35 3 8.6% +1.00
NH Flat 29 1 3.4% −21.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 97 3 3.1% −62.00
Soft 93 3 3.2% −29.00
Good 80 4 5% −29.00
Good to Firm 63 1 1.6% −50.00
Heavy 38 3 7.9% −8.00
Good to Soft 36 1 2.8% −28.50
Firm 12 1 8.3% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 80 2 2.5% −54.00
Sligo 52 3 5.8% −17.00
Leopardstown 31 2 6.5% −8.50
Down Royal 27 1 3.7% −19.00
Galway 24 1 4.2% −11.00
Roscommon 17 0 0% −17.00
Fairyhouse 16 0 0% −16.00
Ballinrobe 15 0 0% −15.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 13 1 7.7% −4.00
Navan 13 0 0% −13.00
Killarney 12 1 8.3% −2.00
Curragh 12 0 0% −12.00
Clonmel 11 0 0% −11.00
Thurles 11 1 9.1% −5.00
Downpatrick 8 0 0% −8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 15 0 0% −15.00
Class 6 13 1 7.7% −4.00
Class 5 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 4 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 6 1 16.7% 0.83 +0.00
2nd–3rd fav 36 2 5.6% 0.50 −19.50
4th–6th fav 108 11 10.2% 1.51 +27.00
7th+ in betting 269 2 0.7% 0.24 −218.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
The Drunken Dr (IRE) 47 1 4 12 Oct 17
Whisky Galore (GB)from Mark Michael McNiff · then Thomas Cleary 36 2 4 25 Apr 16
Dont Bother Me (IRE) 23 3 7 21 Oct 16
Nine Bean Rows (IRE) 22 0 2 17 Jun 14
Hope Of An Angel (IRE) 18 1 2 2 Aug 12
Rakamasi (GB)from Michael McElhone · then Michael McElhone 18 2 7 17 May 11
Johnstown Lad (IRE)then Mark Loughnane 18 0 4 26 Jun 09
Non Tiscordardime (GB) 16 1 1 17 Dec 10
Nora Chrissie (IRE)from V Kennedy · then Alex Hales 14 0 3 28 Jan 09
Live Trade (IRE)then V T O'Brien 13 0 0 7 Aug 11
Grey Mountain Mist (IRE)then M M Lynch 12 1 1 25 Apr 16
Melody Star (IRE) 11 1 2 11 Nov 09
All 56 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 56 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Michael McElhone (5); 36 had their first archived run for this yard.

22 have since run for another yard, most often for Mark Loughnane (5) and Michael McElhone (4); 34 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
806360266530
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMartin Harley
15% of all rides
4.8% SR · A/E 0.76
RiderRWSR£1
Martin Harley 63 3 4.8% −30.00
L McNiff 33 3 9.1% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
24
Archived wins
£325k
Prize money
2010
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Johnstown Lad (IRE) — Kilsaran Concrete Handicap (60-95) Bellewstown · Jul 2007
£16,275
Dont Bother Me (IRE) — John R Fitzpatrick Agricultural Contractor Handicap Leopardstown · May 2016
£15,375
Hope Of An Angel (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Nursery Handicap Galway · Jul 2010
£13,000
Notable horses
Dont Bother Me (IRE) Whisky Galore (GB) Johnstown Lad (IRE) Rakamasi (GB) Proud Ruler (IRE) The Drunken Dr (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dr Fong (USA) 2.1% · 1–47
Progeny have won 9.4% of 4,593 runs since 2008 (350 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 158.
Kyllachy (GB) 5.6% · 2–36
Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.
Dark Angel (IRE) 10% · 3–30
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,953 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Red Clubs (IRE) 0% · 0–22
Progeny have won 10.3% of 3,131 runs since 2011 (143 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.5% from 127.
Intikhab (USA) 5.6% · 1–18
Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,951 runs since 2008 (362 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.6% from 277. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.8% from 266.
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,871 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 606 · newest first

The latest 50 of 606 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 27 October 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
27 Oct 17 Dundalk (AW) Iyiyiangel (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse www.dundalkstadium.com Fillies Claiming Race7f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 50/1
12 Oct 17 Thurles The Drunken Dr (IRE)J: Patrick Mangan Templemore Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2)16f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 17th 33/1
27 Sep 17 Sligo The Drunken Dr (IRE)J: Adam Short Leo Mcmorrow Memorial Novice Handicap Chase21f · Heavy · 6 ran 5th 28/1
16 Jul 17 Sligo Redoute Star (AUS)J: Robbie Colgan Joe Henry Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-116)16.5f · Good · 10 ran 10th 50/1
15 Apr 17 Cork Iyiyiangel (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Corkracecourse.ie Handicap (45-65)7f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 15th 14/1
02 Apr 17 Fairyhouse The Drunken Dr (IRE)J: Patrick Mangan Hire2k Beginners Chase17f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 12th 66/1
31 Mar 17 Dundalk (AW) Redoute Star (AUS)J: Scott McCullagh irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (45-65)12f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 33/1
31 Mar 17 Dundalk (AW) Iyiyiangel (IRE)J: Scott McCullagh Make Your Good Friday Great At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (45-65)7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 33/1
04 Mar 17 Navan Redoute Star (AUS)J: Robbie Colgan Meath Hospice Homecare Handicap Hurdle20f · Heavy · 12 ran 12th 40/1
25 Feb 17 Fairyhouse The Drunken Dr (IRE)J: Patrick Mangan Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Beginners Chase17f · Heavy · 9 ran 7th 66/1
25 Jan 17 Fairyhouse The Drunken Dr (IRE)J: Patrick Mangan Book Your Easter Festival Tickets Today Beginners Chase21f · Soft · 12 ran 9th 50/1
31 Dec 16 Punchestown The Drunken Dr (IRE)J: E O'Connell Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Soft · 22 ran 21st 20/1
07 Nov 16 Fairyhouse The Drunken Dr (IRE)J: Patrick Mangan Your Clubs Fundraiser At Fairyhouse, Enquire Today Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Good · 15 ran 4th 66/1
30 Oct 16 Galway (IRE) The Drunken Dr (IRE)J: Patrick Mangan swordsecurity.com Handicap Hurdle18.5f · Yielding · 19 ran 13th 33/1
21 Oct 16 Dundalk (AW) Dont Bother Me (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Handicap (70-100)7f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 9/1
30 Sep 16 Dundalk (AW) Dont Bother Me (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Paddy Power Horse Racing Text Alerts On 51465 Race6f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 16/1
16 Sep 16 Listowel Dont Bother Me (IRE)J: Jack Kennedy Bank Of Ireland Handicap7f · Soft To Heavy · 12 ran 10th 20/1
10 Sep 16 Leopardstown Dont Bother Me (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. 'Sovereign Path' Handicap7f · Yielding · 17 ran 13th 33/1
11 Aug 16 Leopardstown Dont Bother Me (IRE)J: Gary Halpin Invesco Pension Consultants Desmond Stakes (group 3)8f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 8th 50/1
23 Jul 16 Ascot Dont Bother Me (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Gigaset International Stakes (Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 7f · Good To Firm · 24 ran 17th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Niall Moran's strike rate?
Niall Moran has won 16 of 419 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.8% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Niall Moran do best at?
Leopardstown by strike rate: 2 wins from 31 runners (6.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Niall Moran?
Martin Harley, with 63 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (4.8%).
What is Niall Moran's Fair A/E?
0.77, from 418 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 8 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).