What is Jackie Stephen's strike rate?

Jackie Stephen has won 31 of 543 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.7% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Jackie Stephen do best at?

Perth by strike rate: 11 wins from 133 runners (8.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Jackie Stephen?

Tony Kelly, with 79 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (11.4%).

Is Jackie Stephen in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Jackie Stephen's Fair A/E?

0.76, from 540 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Jackie Stephen

543 runners in the lifetime window · 56 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 3 days ago 98% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

31–543

Wins / Runs

5.7%

Strike rate

n=543

113 (21%)

Placed

0.76

Fair A/E

n=540 · 0.65 incl. margin

−302.89

£1 level stake

n=543 at SP · −55.8%

£315k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.76). With a claiming rider up the record reads 7% (176 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 543 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Sep–Oct Tony Kelly: 11.4% from 79 Claiming riders: 7.4%

The read

The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.72 and −111.05 to a £1 stake over 157 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Tony Kelly rides 15% of the entries and beats the yard's average (11.4% vs 5.7%, A/E 1.17) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 63 runners, 5.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Amilliontimes (IRE) — 5 wins from 40 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Sep–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.5%−1.2

n=157 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −111.05

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−5.7

n=24 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −24.00

Debutants · first career start

3%−2.7

n=33 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −10.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−5.7

n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

7.1%+1.4

n=14 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −5.00

When favourite

25%

n=20 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −4.50

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.4%+1.7

n=176 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −66.92

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 21.2% vs 5.7% · n=33

With Tony Kelly 11.4% vs 5.7% · n=79

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 5.7% · n=63

With Jamie Hamilton 0% vs 5.7% · n=48

With Craig Nichol 11.8% vs 5.7% · n=34

With Callum Bewley 0% vs 5.7% · n=37

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 309 14 4.5% −200.39

Chase 184 16 8.7% −75.50

NH Flat 38 1 2.6% −15.00

Flat 12 0 0% −12.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 212 17 8% −96.67

Good to Soft 164 7 4.3% −89.47

Soft 127 4 3.1% −97.00

Heavy 22 2 9.1% −7.75

Good to Firm 13 1 7.7% −7.00

Standard (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Perth 133 11 8.3% −36.50

Kelso 117 6 5.1% −75.22

Ayr 63 5 7.9% −33.42

Carlisle 51 2 3.9% −28.00

Hexham 47 2 4.3% −33.50

Musselburgh 43 1 2.3% −30.00

Newcastle 30 1 3.3% −27.00

Sedgefield 15 3 20% +4.75

Cartmel 14 0 0% −14.00

Wetherby 11 0 0% −11.00

Catterick 8 0 0% −8.00

Newcastle (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00

Hamilton 2 0 0% −2.00

Market Rasen 2 0 0% −2.00

Ripon 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 287 15 5.2% −187.47

Class 5 191 13 6.8% −80.42

Class 3 44 3 6.8% −14.00

Class 6 16 0 0% −16.00

Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 23 8 34.8% 1.34 +5.58

2nd–3rd fav 80 9 11.3% 0.69 −32.47

4th–6th fav 200 12 6% 0.81 −61.00

7th+ in betting 240 2 0.8% 0.29 −215.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

79.9% completed · 493 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 184 75% 5 6 34 1 0

Hurdle 309 82.8% 3 0 47 3 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Amilliontimes (IRE) 40 5 15 27 Aug 20

Sputnik (IRE)from Denis Gerard Hogan · then Lizzie Quinlan 30 3 10 30 Jun 24

Welcome Ben (IRE) 29 5 13 10 Sep 19

Mo Rouge (IRE) 29 2 7 28 Oct 17

Lovely Schtuff (IRE) 24 2 4 28 Aug 21

Highland Peak (GB) 21 0 1 25 Sep 19

Bright Prospect (IRE)from Liz Doyle 20 2 5 26 Feb 19

Guernesey (FR)from Joe Tizzard 19 0 4 4 Apr 26

Lock Down Luke (GB) 19 3 9 11 Nov 23

Joanna I'm Fine (IRE) 17 1 4 5 Apr 25

Joie More (IRE) 15 0 2 13 Apr 26

Motion To Strike (IRE)from Rebecca Menzies 15 0 5 21 Jul 18

All 56 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 56 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from David Pipe (2); 33 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard; 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 3

Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

310379361211722

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTony Kelly

15% of all rides
11.4% SR · A/E 1.17

RiderRWSR£1

Tony Kelly 79 9 11.4% −9.25

Danny McMenamin 48 5 10.4% −15.00

Jamie Hamilton 48 0 0% −48.00

Sean Quinlan 44 3 6.8% −12.47

Callum Bewley 37 0 0% −37.00

Craig Nichol 34 4 11.8% −4.50

Henry Brooke 32 0 0% −32.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→

Archived wins

£315k

Prize money

2016

Best season · 6 wins

Welcome Ben (IRE) — Join Racing TV Now Handicap Chase Ayr · May 2019 · Class 3

£10,657

Bright Prospect (IRE) — Celebrating Jimmy Logan's 100th Birthday Handicap Chase Kelso · Jan 2018 · Class 3

£7,928

Too Cool Forshrule (IRE) — Bet With Rails Bookmakers On Course Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Ayr · Nov 2025 · Class 4

£7,922

Notable horses

Amilliontimes (IRE) Welcome Ben (IRE) Sputnik (IRE) Lock Down Luke (GB) Mo Rouge (IRE) Lovely Schtuff (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Olden Times (GB) 12.5% · 5–40

Progeny have won 9.2% of 736 runs since 2008 (67 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 17.6% from 108. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 13.7% from 117.

Recital (FR) 10% · 3–30

Progeny have won 8.5% of 188 runs since 2019 (14 horses).

Croco Rouge (IRE) 6.9% · 2–29

Progeny have won 9% of 723 runs since 2008 (74 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.8% from 120.

High Roller (IRE) 17.2% · 5–29

Progeny have won 7.2% of 334 runs since 2008 (35 horses).

Distant Peak (IRE) 0% · 0–27

Progeny have won 3.8% of 106 runs since 2013 (13 horses).

Court Cave (IRE) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,949 runs since 2008 (552 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 543 · newest first

The latest 50 of 543 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 April 2012 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

31 Oct 26 Ayr Noble Thistle (IRE)J: Patrick Wadge Ben Arthur's Bothy Of Arrochar Ebf 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 7th 66/1

24 Oct 26 Kelso Too Cool Forshrule (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Myles Mcnulty You'Re Never Sixty Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North One Man Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 5 ran PU 5/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Billable Grant (IRE)J: Patrick Wadge Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 80/1

15 Oct 26 Perth Jet Noir (IRE)J: Patrick Wadge Join Racing TV Now Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 100/1

02 May 26 Hexham Jet Noir (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Bobby Roberts Memorial Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 6th 33/1

13 Apr 26 Hexham Eire Street (IRE)J: Sean Quinlan Happy Retirement Maurice & Anne Barnes Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 10 ran PU 12/1

13 Apr 26 Hexham Joie More (IRE)J: Sean Quinlan Mick Walsh Open Ditch Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 14 ran PU 9/1

13 Apr 26 Hexham Too Cool Forshrule (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Anthony Woods Electrical Lightning Bolt Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15.5f · Good · 11 ran UR 11/1

04 Apr 26 Carlisle Guernesey (FR)J: Joshua Thompson Bell & Plate 24th June Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 25f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 16/1

04 Apr 26 Carlisle Jet Noir (IRE)J: Sean Quinlan Cumberland Show Saturday 6th June Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 7th 33/1

27 Mar 26 Wetherby Eire Street (IRE)J: Joshua Thompson Malton Marquees Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good · 15 ran 8th 28/1

22 Mar 26 Carlisle Too Cool Forshrule (IRE)J: Dylan Johnston Mark Nield Wealth Management Go North One Man Series Final Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran PU 9/1

22 Mar 26 Carlisle Karma De Cotte (FR)J: Jamie Hamilton Racing Post+ Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 9th 16/1

14 Mar 26 Newcastle Jet Noir (IRE)J: Jamie Hamilton Guinness At The Canny Lad Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 9th 12/1

03 Mar 26 Newcastle Joie More (IRE)J: Sean Quinlan Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 14/1

21 Feb 26 Newcastle Eire Street (IRE)J: Charlie Maggs Costello's Cleaning Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran PU 28/1

21 Feb 26 Newcastle Karma De Cotte (FR)J: Jamie Hamilton Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 4th 7/1

19 Feb 26 Sedgefield Too Cool Forshrule (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Paxtons No1 CaseIH Dealer Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Soft · 5 ran 1st 3/1

19 Feb 26 Sedgefield Guernesey (FR)J: Joshua Thompson Sign Lead Your Horse To Water Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 27f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 10/1

16 Feb 26 Carlisle Canunclecani (IRE)J: Sean Quinlan Watch Racing TV Now Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Jackie Stephen's strike rate?: Jackie Stephen has won 31 of 543 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.7% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jackie Stephen do best at?: Perth by strike rate: 11 wins from 133 runners (8.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Jackie Stephen?: Tony Kelly, with 79 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (11.4%).
Is Jackie Stephen in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Jackie Stephen's Fair A/E?: 0.76, from 540 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.