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Trainer profile

John Neilan

335 runners in the lifetime window · 56 individual horses
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 7 days ago 94% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
4–335
Wins / Runs
1.2%
Strike rate
n=335
38 (11%)
Placed
0.29
Fair A/E
n=335 · 0.23 incl. margin
−261.00
£1 level stake
n=335 at SP · −77.9%
£88,602
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 1% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.29).

Deterministic profile computed from 335 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 1.8% Claiming riders: 1.7%
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 1.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.52 and −112.00 to a £1 stake over 181 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well on Good to Soft going (6.3%, n=32) and off a 8-14-day break (5.1%, n=39). The market has consistently overbet the yard on Heavy going: Fair A/E 0.00 across 71 runners (0% strike, −71.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 1.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.8%+0.6
n=55 · A/E 0.44 · £1 −50.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−1.2
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.2
n=52 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −52.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.2
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−1.2
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.7%+0.5
n=181 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −112.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−1.2
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good to Soft going 6.3% vs 1.2% · n=32
Off a 8-14-day break 5.1% vs 1.2% · n=39
With horses switching code 3.4% vs 1.2% · n=59
At Roscommon 3.2% vs 1.2% · n=31
On Heavy going 0% vs 1.2% · n=71 · A/E 0.00
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 181 2 1.1% −165.00
NH Flat 98 2 2% −40.00
Chase 36 0 0% −36.00
Flat 20 0 0% −20.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 109 1 0.9% −104.00
Good 106 1 0.9% −99.00
Heavy 71 0 0% −71.00
Good to Soft 32 2 6.3% +30.00
Good to Firm 16 0 0% −16.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Limerick 62 0 0% −62.00
Galway 46 1 2.2% +5.00
Ballinrobe 35 0 0% −35.00
Roscommon 31 1 3.2% −20.00
Kilbeggan 24 0 0% −24.00
Sligo 20 0 0% −20.00
Thurles 16 0 0% −16.00
Clonmel 14 0 0% −14.00
Naas 12 1 8.3% −7.00
Cork 12 0 0% −12.00
Punchestown 10 0 0% −10.00
Listowel 9 0 0% −9.00
Gowran Park 8 1 12.5% −1.00
Killarney 6 0 0% −6.00
Tipperary 6 0 0% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 0 0% 0.00 −2.00
2nd–3rd fav 21 1 4.8% 0.34 −16.00
4th–6th fav 80 2 2.5% 0.40 −62.00
7th+ in betting 232 1 0.4% 0.19 −181.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
85.7% completed · 217 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 36 77.8% 1 2 5 0 0
Hurdle 181 87.3% 1 5 17 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Noble Pageant (IRE)then S J Mahon 36 0 9 21 Nov 13
Winter Carnival (IRE) 23 0 3 28 May 26
Carrleoni (IRE) 23 0 7 28 Aug 11
Road To The Weir (IRE) 16 0 1 6 Jul 26
Poormans Hill (IRE)then Gordon Elliott 14 1 1 3 Aug 17
Bugscuffle (IRE)then Andrew McNamara 12 0 1 29 Dec 22
Hunters Call (IRE)then Olly Murphy 12 2 3 10 Aug 17
Bridgets Cross (GB)then Paul Henderson 11 0 1 14 Sep 19
Cherrys Son (IRE) 11 0 2 29 Oct 17
Hunters Song (IRE)then Gary Brown 10 0 1 27 Dec 22
Charlotte Wells (IRE)then P J Rothwell 10 0 0 28 Dec 17
Angelica Yeats (IRE) 9 0 2 15 May 17
All 56 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 56 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from W P Mullins (2); 52 had their first archived run for this yard.

18 have since run for another yard, most often for John Wade (2) and Olly Murphy (2); 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000004400040
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderAlan King
10% of all rides
0% SR · A/E 0.00
RiderRWSR£1
Alan King 35 0 0% −35.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
4
Archived wins
£88,602
Prize money
2016
Best season · 2 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Poormans Hill (IRE) — Guinness West Indies Porter Flat Race Galway · Jul 2016
£9,225
Hunters Call (IRE) — Welcome To Toomevara GAA Race Day Maiden Hurdle Naas (IRE) · Nov 2015
£8,280
Hunters Call (IRE) — Joe Bollard Memorial Flat Race Gowran Park · Jun 2015
£6,210
Notable horses
Hunters Call (IRE) Poormans Hill (IRE) Kilcaragh Boy (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Turtle Island (IRE) 0% · 0–38
Progeny have won 7.5% of 3,325 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.7% from 215.
Arctic Cosmos (USA) 0% · 0–31
Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,306 runs since 2017 (131 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.3% from 194.
Yeats (IRE) 0% · 0–31
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,833 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.
Reprimand (GB) 0% · 0–23
Progeny have won 3.8% of 132 runs since 2008 (15 horses).
Salutino (GER) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 9.1% of 341 runs since 2015 (29 horses).
Stowaway (GB) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 11.3% of 7,190 runs since 2008 (561 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 124.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 338 · newest first

The latest 50 of 338 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 February 2005 to 25 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Long Story (IRE)J: Alan King Glenlo Abbey Hotel & Estate Maiden Hurdle21.5f · Soft · 12 ran 10th 150/1
28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Long Story (IRE)J: Mr E Mahon GavinLynchRacing.com Flat Race15.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 15th 300/1
21 Aug 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Long Story (IRE)J: Mr T A Halford John Thomas McNamara Series Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 5th 33/1
21 Jul 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Long Story (IRE)J: Mr T A Halford Jennings Meats Flat Race15.5f · Good · 13 ran 9th 20/1
12 Jul 26 Sligo Wild Eagle (IRE)J: Mr T A Halford Clayton Hotel Mares Flat Race18.5f · Good · 11 ran 8th 250/1
06 Jul 26 Roscommon Road To The Weir (IRE)J: Alan King Roscommon Herald Handicap Hurdle (0-100)24f · Good · 16 ran PU 66/1
15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Long Story (IRE)J: Mr T A Halford Midlands National On 10th July (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 7th 80/1
15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Road To The Weir (IRE)J: Alan King T. Murray & Son Ltd. Beginners Chase20f · Yielding · 12 ran 8th 100/1
09 Jun 26 Sligo Wild Eagle (IRE)J: Mr T A Halford Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race18f · Good · 14 ran 11th 300/1
28 May 26 Limerick Wild Eagle (IRE)J: Mr T A Halford Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race16f · Soft · 8 ran 8th 80/1
28 May 26 Limerick Winter Carnival (IRE)J: Alan King Irish Wire Products Ltd. Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)20f · Soft · 18 ran 16th 28/1
26 May 26 Ballinrobe Long Story (IRE)J: Mr T A Halford QuinnBet Flat Race16f · Good · 9 ran 7th 66/1
12 May 26 Sligo Wild Eagle (IRE)J: Mr T A Halford Lake Isle Of Innisfree Flat Race18f · Good · 15 ran 14th 150/1
12 May 26 Sligo Road To The Weir (IRE)J: Alan King Johnston Farm Equipment Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Good · 16 ran 7th 50/1
28 Dec 25 Limerick Winter Carnival (IRE)J: John Shinnick D Pack Packaging Handicap Hurdle (0-100)21.5f · Soft To Heavy · 18 ran 12th 14/1
26 Dec 25 Limerick Road To The Weir (IRE)J: Harry Sexton BRC McMahon Reinforcements Handicap Chase17.5f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 10th 40/1
02 Dec 25 Clonmel Winter Carnival (IRE)J: Alan King William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)19.5f · Heavy · 16 ran 7th 14/1
27 Nov 25 Thurles Road To The Weir (IRE)J: Alan King Thurles Racecourse Beginners Chase18.5f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 6th 250/1
25 Oct 25 Galway Winter Carnival (IRE)J: Alan King COLM QUINN BMW Handicap Hurdle (0-100)24f · Yielding · 16 ran UR 16/1
24 Oct 25 Sligo Road To The Weir (IRE)J: Alan King Sligo Races Vintage Friday Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 11th 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Neilan's strike rate?
John Neilan has won 4 of 335 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 1.2% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Neilan do best at?
Roscommon by strike rate: 1 wins from 31 runners (3.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is John Neilan in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John Neilan's Fair A/E?
0.29, from 335 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 1 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).