Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02).
Deterministic profile computed from 707 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 23 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Aug–Sep33.8% when favouriteBrian Hayes: 1.7% from 59Sends off the favourite in 10% of races
The read
The record is strongest at Listowel (24%, n=50), Clonmel (17.6%, n=34) and Thurles (16.1%, n=31) — all clear of the yard's 9.5% baseline. It is weakest at Killarney (0% over 41 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Brian Hayes rides 8% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (1.7% vs 9.5%, A/E 0.23). 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Baltika Beer Aintree Hurdle at Aintree (Apr 2007, £91,232). The stable star of the record: Arcadian Sunrise (IRE) — 7 wins from 18 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Aug–Sep.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.8%−1.7
n=167 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −86.51
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−9.5
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
Debutants · first career start
7.1%−2.4
n=56 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −26.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
11.1%+1.6
n=27 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −20.08
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10.7%+1.2
n=28 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −13.00
When favourite
33.8%
n=68 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −0.36
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.9%−1.6
n=202 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −114.97
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7%−2.5
n=43 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −32.82
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Listowel24% vs 9.5% · n=50
At Killarney0% vs 9.5% · n=41
With Brian Hayes1.7% vs 9.5% · n=59
At Clonmel17.6% vs 9.5% · n=34
With Denis O'Regan17.1% vs 9.5% · n=35
At Thurles16.1% vs 9.5% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle367359.5%−181.16
Chase143139.1%−39.50
Flat11587%−60.50
NH Flat821113.4%−24.12
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft2793111.1%−120.63
Good1801910.6%−71.22
Heavy11897.6%−41.81
Good to Soft7456.8%−39.12
Good to Firm3625.6%−17.00
Standard (AW)1915.3%−14.50
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Tramore881112.5%−37.73
Punchestown6857.4%−40.75
Listowel501224%+10.44
Leopardstown4337%−20.75
Killarney4100%−41.00
Cork3638.3%+10.75
Galway3538.6%−22.00
Clonmel34617.6%+1.83
Limerick3438.8%−5.00
Thurles31516.1%+7.00
Naas2827.1%−18.25
Tipperary2613.8%−18.50
Gowran Park2414.2%−20.25
Navan2000%−20.00
Wexford1915.3%−7.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 14648.7%−32.07
Class 21218.3%−8.25
Class 4200%−2.00
Class 511100%+3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite792531.6%1.24−3.61
2nd–3rd fav1562616.7%1.16−16.17
4th–6th fav219125.5%0.78−106.50
7th+ in betting25341.6%0.53−179.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m2703211.9%−109.15
2m1f – 2m4f262218%−121.08
2m5f – 3m123118.9%−49.55
1m2f – 1m4f4025%−24.50
Over 3m500%−5.00
1m – 1m1f4125%+7.00
6f – 7f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20084449.1%−5.75
20094137.3%−18.75
201024416.7%−5.62
20113625.6%−21.62
20125147.8%−29.50
20134337%−22.75
201453611.3%−16.25
20151516.7%−13.27
20164400%−44.00
201720210%+22.00
201816318.8%−4.68
201935617.1%−0.70
202036616.7%−9.67
202129413.8%−12.88
20225048%−21.50
202361711.5%−24.47
20244548.9%−29.37
20253313%−27.00
20263139.7%−19.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps282238.2%−136.09
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
17+ runners17984.5%−117.74
14-16 runners1711911.1%−33.35
11-13 runners170158.8%−85.50
8-10 runners1191714.3%−29.30
5-7 runners62711.3%−37.72
2-4 runners6116.7%−1.67
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 87 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 15 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J S Bolger (3); 45 had their first archived run for this yard.
20 have since run for another yard, most often for Fergal O'Brien (3); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
79101389313207510
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
80
Archived wins
4
Pattern / graded wins
£1.70m
Prize money
2023
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Al Eile (IRE) — Baltika Beer Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2007 · Class 1
£91,232
Al Eile (IRE) — Scottish And Newcastle Pub Enterprises Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 Aintree · Apr 2008 · Class 1
£91,216
Al Eile (IRE) — Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2005 · Class 1
Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,319 runs since 2008 (81 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 109. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 127.
Milan (GB)8.7% · 4–46
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,853 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Fairly Ransom (USA)10.8% · 4–37
Progeny have won 9.8% of 542 runs since 2008 (48 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.8% from 104.
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,351 runs since 2008 (605 horses).
Singspiel (IRE)13.3% · 4–30
Progeny have won 12% of 4,376 runs since 2008 (378 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 8.5% from 118.
Bob Back (USA)7.4% · 2–27
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,724 runs since 2008 (338 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 23 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 821 · newest first
The latest 50 of 821 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 January 2005 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is John Queally's strike rate?
John Queally has won 67 of 707 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.5% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Queally do best at?
Listowel by strike rate: 12 wins from 50 runners (24%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Queally?
Brian Hayes, with 59 runners since 2008 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.7%).
Is John Queally in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John Queally's Fair A/E?
1.02, from 706 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
John Queally·SR 9.5%·A/E 1.02
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