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Trainer profile

Mark L Fagan

291 runners in the lifetime window · 56 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Apr 2022
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
10–291
Wins / Runs
3.4%
Strike rate
n=291
47 (16%)
Placed
0.72
Fair A/E
n=291 · 0.54 incl. margin
−136.17
£1 level stake
n=291 at SP · −46.8%
£184k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.72). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 8% off breaks of two months or more (76 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 291 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 7.9% Claiming riders: 3.7%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 7.9% (n=76, Fair A/E 1.77), but debutants struggle at 0% (n=39, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 3.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.83 and −82.17 to a £1 stake over 135 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well off a 61-180-day break (12.5%, n=40). The market has also underrated the yard over 6f – 7f: Fair A/E 1.28 across 52 runners (5.8% strike, +16.00 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 0% over 64 runners, 3.4pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Hurry Harriet Stakes at Gowran Park (Aug 2010, £27,625).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.9%+4.5
n=76 · A/E 1.77 · £1 +6.33
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.4
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.4
n=39 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −39.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.4
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +0.33
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.7%+0.3
n=135 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −82.17
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
5.6%+2.2
n=18 · A/E 1.35 · £1 +3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 61-180-day break 12.5% vs 3.4% · n=40
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 0% vs 3.4% · n=64
On Heavy going 0% vs 3.4% · n=39
With debutants 0% vs 3.4% · n=39
Over 6f – 7f 5.8% vs 3.4% · n=52
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 110 4 3.6% −58.67
Flat 109 4 3.7% −20.00
NH Flat 37 1 2.7% −30.50
Chase 35 1 2.9% −27.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 81 3 3.7% −50.00
Good 80 4 5% −17.67
Heavy 39 0 0% −39.00
Good to Firm 37 1 2.7% −30.50
Good to Soft 26 1 3.8% −5.00
Standard (AW) 24 1 4.2% +10.00
Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 22 1 4.5% +12.00
Gowran Park 19 1 5.3% +2.00
Limerick 18 0 0% −18.00
Wexford 17 0 0% −17.00
Downpatrick 16 1 6.3% −8.00
Naas 15 1 6.7% +6.00
Kilbeggan 14 0 0% −14.00
Cork 13 1 7.7% −2.00
Punchestown 12 0 0% −12.00
Listowel 12 2 16.7% +24.00
Leopardstown 12 0 0% −12.00
Fairyhouse 12 0 0% −12.00
Curragh 12 1 8.3% +1.00
Ballinrobe 12 1 8.3% −5.50
Navan 11 0 0% −11.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 17 1 5.9% +4.00
Class 6 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 5 1 20% 1.01 −0.67
2nd–3rd fav 31 2 6.5% 0.53 −16.50
4th–6th fav 64 3 4.7% 0.76 −30.00
7th+ in betting 191 4 2.1% 0.76 −89.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Duchess Of Foxland (IRE) 20 3 5 22 Jul 12
Derravarra Eagle (IRE) 18 0 1 2 May 10
Lake Chapala (IRE)then Tim Vaughan 15 0 4 8 Oct 15
Kanesh (IRE)then Mrs D A Love 13 1 6 6 May 13
Mr Sykes (IRE) 13 2 3 11 Mar 12
Just Klass (IRE) 12 1 3 2 Jun 19
Hily Distinguished (IRE) 12 0 1 5 Jun 12
Inch Rebel (IRE)from Peter Casey 12 0 1 29 Aug 11
Proud Catch (IRE)from J G Burns 12 0 2 11 Aug 10
Loughnavalley (IRE) 11 0 1 13 Jul 18
Vintage Lace (IRE) 9 0 0 4 Jun 12
Catherine (IRE) 9 0 1 13 Nov 09
All 56 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 56 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Peter Casey (2); 43 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard; 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0011033077505
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Emmet McNamara 26 3 11.5% +29.00
Dillon Maxwell 14 1 7.1% −9.67
Andrew P Thornton 13 0 0% −13.00
John Cullen 13 1 7.7% +13.00
Michael Darcy 11 0 0% −11.00
Ben Curtis 9 0 0% −9.00
Sean Flanagan 8 0 0% −8.00
Mr R O'Sullivan 7 1 14.3% −0.50
Niall P Madden 7 0 0% −7.00
Rory Cleary 7 0 0% −7.00
Danny Mullins 7 1 14.3% +4.00
Phillip Enright 6 0 0% −6.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
14
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£242k
Prize money
2019
Best season · 2 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Duchess Of Foxland (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Hurry Harriet Stakes (Listed) Gowran Park · Aug 2010 · Listed
£27,625
Duchess Of Foxland (IRE) — Www.curragh.ie Madrid Handicap Curragh · Mar 2010
£14,950
Derravarra Eagle (IRE) — Tote Sports Lounge Novice Hurdle Punchestown · Nov 2006
£13,020
Notable horses
Duchess Of Foxland (IRE) I Don't Know (IRE) Derravarra Eagle (IRE) Mr Sykes (IRE) Kanesh (IRE) Just Klass (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Flemensfirth (USA) 0% · 0–26
Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,295 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).
Medecis (GB) 15% · 3–20
Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,595 runs since 2008 (112 horses).
Oscar (IRE) 6.7% · 1–15
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Shantou (USA) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,845 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.
Fruits Of Love (USA) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,777 runs since 2008 (221 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.8% from 944. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 182. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 4% from 150.
Shernazar (GB) 15.4% · 2–13
Progeny have won 8.7% of 1,462 runs since 2008 (150 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 333 · newest first

The latest 50 of 333 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 January 2006 to 14 April 2022.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
14 Apr 22 Clonmel The Weasels Corner (IRE)J: Mr D Kiely Next Race Meeting May 12th (Pro/Am) Flat Race16.5f · Yielding · 15 ran 15th 33/1
05 Feb 22 Leopardstown Scenic Look (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Racing TV '12 Per Month This Weekend Only' Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)16f · Yielding · 9 ran 9th 150/1
26 Dec 21 Leopardstown Scenic Look (IRE)J: Dillon Maxwell Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)16f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 100/1
11 Dec 21 Fairyhouse Scenic Look (IRE)J: Dillon Maxwell Thanks To All Our Sponsors In 2021 3-y-o Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 2nd 7/1
28 Nov 21 Fairyhouse Scenic Look (IRE)J: Dillon Maxwell Bar One Racing Price Boost Juvenile Hurdle (grade 3)16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 250/1
13 Nov 21 Punchestown Scenic Look (IRE)J: Dillon Maxwell BetVictor Proud To Support Irish Racing 3-Y-O Hurdle16f · Yielding · 12 ran 4th 40/1
20 Oct 21 Navan Scenic Look (IRE)J: Jake Coen Flower Hill Maiden14f · Yielding · 13 ran 8th 150/1
04 Oct 21 Tipperary Scenic Look (IRE)J: Sam Ewing Irish EBF Supporting Treo Eile Fillies Maiden9f · Soft To Heavy · 12 ran 7th 100/1
30 Jun 21 Tipperary Breezy Zoff (IRE)J: Rory Cleary Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 8th 50/1
11 Dec 20 Dundalk (AW) Mr Kiki (IRE)J: Gary Halpin Test Your Tipping Talents At PUNTERS.HOLLYWOODBETS.COM Every Dundalk Meeting Handicap6f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 66/1
04 Dec 20 Dundalk (AW) Mr Kiki (IRE)J: Gary Halpin Test Your Tipping Talents At PUNTERS.HOLLYWOODBETS.COM Every Dundalk Meeting Handicap8f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 50/1
27 Nov 20 Dundalk (AW) Cabrabom (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden (Plus 10) (Div 1)6f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 12/1
27 Nov 20 Dundalk (AW) Give Her A Squeeze (IRE)J: Ronan Whelan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (Plus 10)8f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 7/2
15 Aug 20 Tramore Naughty Dandy (IRE)J: Emmet McNamara Ashtown Stud Irish EBF Fillies Maiden12f · Good · 9 ran 9th 100/1
25 Jul 20 Gowran Park Give Her A Squeeze (IRE)J: Gary Halpin Foran Equine Irish EBF Auction Fillies Maiden (Plus 10)7f · Yielding · 15 ran 3rd 7/2
13 Jul 20 Killarney She Loves A Night (IRE)J: Gary Halpin Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Fillies Maiden11f · Yielding · 11 ran 7th 20/1
04 Jul 20 Naas Give Her A Squeeze (IRE)J: Gary Halpin Coolmore Stud Irish EBF Fillies' Sprint Stakes (Group 3)6f · Yielding To Soft · 5 ran 3rd 25/1
19 Jun 20 Tipperary Give Her A Squeeze (IRE)J: Gary Halpin Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden5f · Yielding · 12 ran 5th 10/1
18 Jun 20 Fairyhouse Twilight Heir (GB)J: Sean Davis Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden (Plus 10)6f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 2nd 8/1
14 Jun 20 Leopardstown She Loves A Night (IRE)J: P B Beggy Leopardstown Fillies Maiden (Plus 10)8f · Good · 14 ran 6th 17/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mark L Fagan's strike rate?
Mark L Fagan has won 10 of 291 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.4% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mark L Fagan's Fair A/E?
0.72, from 291 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).