What is Muredach Kelly's strike rate?

Muredach Kelly has won 18 of 520 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.5% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Muredach Kelly do best at?

Navan by strike rate: 2 wins from 32 runners (6.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Muredach Kelly?

Andrew P Thornton, with 54 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (7.4%).

What is Muredach Kelly's Fair A/E?

0.77, from 520 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Muredach Kelly

520 runners in the lifetime window · 97 individual horses

As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Dec 2024

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

18–520

Wins / Runs

3.5%

Strike rate

n=520

61 (12%)

Placed

0.77

Fair A/E

n=520 · 0.60 incl. margin

−334.77

£1 level stake

n=520 at SP · −64.4%

£279k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.77).

Deterministic profile computed from 520 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 9 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Andrew P Thornton: 7.4% from 54 Claiming riders: 3.8%

The read

The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.54 and −122.50 to a £1 stake over 143 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Andrew P Thornton rides 10% of the entries and edges the yard's average (7.4% vs 3.5%, A/E 1.26) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Heavy going (8.9%, n=56) and at trips under 6f (7.2%, n=69). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 75 runners, 3.5pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the www.bettor.com Flying Five Stakes at Curragh (Aug 2012, £39,000).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.5% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.1%−1.4

n=143 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −122.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

1.6%−1.9

n=63 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −54.00

Debutants · first career start

2.7%−0.8

n=37 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −22.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

2.6%−0.9

n=38 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −23.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.8%+1.3

n=42 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −21.00

When favourite

25%

n=8 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −0.77

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

3.8%+0.3

n=263 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −142.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.3%+4.8

n=12 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C&D winners 10.5% vs 3.5% · n=38

On Heavy going 8.9% vs 3.5% · n=56

At trips under 6f 7.2% vs 3.5% · n=69

With Andrew P Thornton 7.4% vs 3.5% · n=54

Off a 31-60-day break 7.1% vs 3.5% · n=70

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 3.5% · n=75

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 60.7% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 328 12 3.7% −217.27

Hurdle 129 4 3.1% −77.50

NH Flat 43 1 2.3% −28.00

Chase 20 1 5% −12.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 124 4 3.2% −94.77

Good 120 2 1.7% −99.50

Soft 113 6 5.3% −45.00

Good to Firm 66 0 0% −66.00

Heavy 56 5 8.9% +5.50

Good to Soft 34 0 0% −34.00

Firm 7 1 14.3% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk 108 2 1.9% −89.50

Navan 32 2 6.3% −18.50

Roscommon 26 0 0% −26.00

Curragh 26 2 7.7% −7.00

Naas 24 0 0% −24.00

Galway 22 2 9.1% +3.00

Ballinrobe 20 0 0% −20.00

Gowran Park 19 0 0% −19.00

Cork 19 0 0% −19.00

Down Royal 19 1 5.3% +2.00

Bellewstown 17 1 5.9% −8.00

Kilbeggan 16 0 0% −16.00

Fairyhouse 14 0 0% −14.00

Tipperary 13 0 0% −13.00

Killarney 13 0 0% −13.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 18 1 5.6% −12.00

Class 5 10 2 20% +0.73

Class 1 9 1 11.1% +2.00

Class 4 2 0 0% −2.00

Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 12 2 16.7% 0.84 −4.77

2nd–3rd fav 34 3 8.8% 0.73 −18.00

4th–6th fav 109 11 10.1% 1.47 +21.00

7th+ in betting 365 2 0.5% 0.21 −333.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Bye Bye O Bye (IRE) 28 0 4 19 Jul 22

My Girl Anna (IRE) 28 4 13 16 Jun 13

San Jose City (IRE)from Declan Carroll 22 1 3 13 Nov 13

Laurens Company (IRE) 20 0 2 22 Oct 24

Unico (IRE)from E Sheehy 20 0 3 21 Jun 11

Kahuna (IRE)from E Sheehy 19 4 9 22 Aug 10

Countess Salome (IRE)from David Marnane 18 0 4 24 Sep 13

Art Of Unity (GB)from Alan Richardson · then Maurice Andrew Ahern 17 2 7 23 Oct 24

Sahreej (IRE)from Paul W Flynn 14 0 1 12 Jun 22

Breezolini (GB)from Ollie Pears · then Adrian Brendan Joyce 10 0 1 25 Nov 15

Rowayton (GB)from James Bethell 10 0 0 13 Nov 13

Noble Jack (IRE)from Gary Moore · then Jo Hughes 9 0 0 28 Oct 11

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 97 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 38 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from E Sheehy (3) and David Marnane (2); 22 had their first archived run for this yard.

20 have since run for another yard, most often for Adrian Brendan Joyce (3) and Maurice Andrew Ahern (2); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

0013230642900

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAndrew P Thornton

10% of all rides
7.4% SR · A/E 1.26

RiderRWSR£1

Andrew P Thornton 54 4 7.4% −9.50

Rory Cleary 52 3 5.8% −22.50

Mark Enright 44 1 2.3% −36.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£279k

Prize money

2013

Best season · 3 wins

My Girl Anna (IRE) — www.bettor.com Flying Five Stakes (group 3) Curragh · Aug 2012 · Group 3

£39,000

Kahuna (IRE) — Www.galwaynews.ie Handicap Hurdle Galway · Oct 2008

£32,550

Kahuna (IRE) — Guinness Handicap Chase Galway · Jul 2009

£22,785

Notable horses

My Girl Anna (IRE) Kahuna (IRE) Art Of Unity (GB) Reposer (IRE) San Jose City (IRE) Champagne Blitz (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kadeed (IRE) 0% · 0–28

Progeny have won 6.5% of 245 runs since 2008 (24 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.6% from 114.

Orpen (USA) 14.3% · 4–28

Progeny have won 9% of 4,038 runs since 2008 (381 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.4% from 113.

Fast Company (IRE) 0% · 0–24

Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,603 runs since 2014 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 558. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.

Clodovil (IRE) 4.5% · 1–22

Progeny have won 9.7% of 6,513 runs since 2008 (415 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 13.5% from 155.

Leading Counsel (USA) 0% · 0–20

Progeny have won 7% of 398 runs since 2008 (43 horses).

Mister Lord (USA) 21.1% · 4–19

Progeny have won 8% of 565 runs since 2008 (79 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.9% from 108. Weakest on Soft going: 4% from 151. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 149. Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 4.5% from 111.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 520 · newest first

The latest 50 of 520 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 June 2008 to 13 December 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Dec 24 Dundalk (AW) Sliabh Na Gcroi (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 200/1

22 Nov 24 Dundalk (AW) Sliabh Na Gcroi (IRE)J: Luke McAteer Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (Div 1)8f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 200/1

23 Oct 24 Navan Art Of Unity (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Safer Gambling Handicap (47-70)6f · Yielding · 19 ran 10th 9/2J

22 Oct 24 Curragh Laurens Company (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Handicap (47-70) (Div 1)10f · Yielding · 20 ran 15th 16/1

21 Oct 24 Gowran Park Wheres The Gold (IRE)J: Jamie Powell Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden8.5f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran 12th 150/1

17 Oct 24 Curragh Art Of Unity (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Equine Care Group - Nutritional Solutions Handicap (47-75)5f · Yielding To Soft · 17 ran 1st 7/1

09 Oct 24 Navan Art Of Unity (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Book Your Discounted Tickets On NavanRacecourse.ie Apprentice Handicap (47-65)6f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 4th 12/1

05 Oct 24 Curragh Laurens Company (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Handicap (47-65)8f · Good · 25 ran 20th 40/1

03 Oct 24 Bellewstown Art Of Unity (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Dickie McGuinness Handicap (47-65)5f · Yielding · 12 ran 1st 8/1

10 Sep 24 Galway Laurens Company (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Galway Apprentice Handicap (47-70)12f · Yielding · 15 ran 8th 28/1

03 Sep 24 Gowran Park Dar Og (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Membership At Gowran Park Fillies Claiming Race8f · Good · 10 ran 10th 150/1

25 Aug 24 Naas Art Of Unity (GB)J: Ronan Whelan Persian Force At Tally-Ho Handicap (47-65)5f · Good To Yielding · 22 ran 14th 22/1

20 Aug 24 Roscommon Laurens Company (IRE)J: Jack Cleary QuinnBet Claiming Race10.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 3rd 150/1

30 Jul 24 Galway Wheres The Gold (IRE)J: Leigh Roche COLM QUINN BMW Irish EBF Fillies Maiden7f · Yielding · 13 ran 13th 150/1

05 Jul 24 Bellewstown Art Of Unity (GB)J: Shane Foley Western Motors CUPRA Handicap (47-65)5f · Good · 13 ran 5th 11/1

05 Jul 24 Bellewstown Rochester Mike (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Meath Farm Machinery Claiming Race8f · Good · 14 ran 12th 33/1

03 Jun 24 Gowran Park Our Lil (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan Sonix Entertainment Handicap (47-65)9.5f · Good · 17 ran 7th 7/1

17 May 24 Leopardstown Our Lil (GB)J: Nathan Crosse GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap (50-70) (Div 2)8f · Good · 16 ran 6th 80/1

08 May 24 Gowran Park Romford (IRE)J: Mr T R Costello Thank You To All Our Sponsors Apprentice Handicap (47-65)8f · Heavy · 12 ran 12th 40/1

06 May 24 Curragh Rochester Mike (IRE)J: Mr T R Costello Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Apprentice Handicap7f · Soft · 20 ran 11th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Muredach Kelly's strike rate?: Muredach Kelly has won 18 of 520 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.5% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Muredach Kelly do best at?: Navan by strike rate: 2 wins from 32 runners (6.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Muredach Kelly?: Andrew P Thornton, with 54 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (7.4%).
What is Muredach Kelly's Fair A/E?: 0.77, from 520 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.