What is Patrick Neville's strike rate?

Patrick Neville has won 106 of 1,099 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.6% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Patrick Neville do best at?

Sedgefield by strike rate: 13 wins from 56 runners (23.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Patrick Neville?

Brian Hughes, with 119 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 32 (26.9%).

Is Patrick Neville in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Patrick Neville's Fair A/E?

1.18, from 1,095 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Patrick Neville

1,099 runners in the lifetime window · 142 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 4 days ago 93% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

106–1,099

Wins / Runs

9.6%

Strike rate

n=1,099

267 (24%)

Placed

1.18

Fair A/E

n=1,095 · 0.97 incl. margin

−287.81

£1 level stake

n=1,099 at SP · −26.2%

£1.52m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

20.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.18). New recruits from other yards win at 12% first time out (59 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,099 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Oct 42.3% when favourite Brian Hughes: 26.9% from 119 New recruits: 11.9% Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Sedgefield (23.2%, n=56) and Perth (18.8%, n=101) — all clear of the yard's 9.6% baseline. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 1.5% (n=67, Fair A/E 0.31). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 5% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −263.41 to a £1 stake over 462 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Brian Hughes rides 11% of the entries and beats the yard's average (26.9% vs 9.6%, A/E 1.54) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Class 4 (17.3%, n=197). 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at Cheltenham (Mar 2023, £102,095). The stable star of the record: Upfordebate (IRE) — 7 wins from 24 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Aug–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.1%−3.5

n=294 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −90.51

New recruits · first run for the yard

11.9%+2.3

n=59 · A/E 1.88 · £1 +6.33

Debutants · first career start

4.7%−4.9

n=85 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −54.67

First-time headgear · true-first definition

1.5%−8.1

n=67 · A/E 0.31 · £1 −60.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

6.5%−3.1

n=46 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −0.50

When favourite

42.3%

n=52 · A/E 1.32 · £1 +0.26

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

5%−4.6

n=462 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −263.41

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10.9%+1.3

n=55 · A/E 1.63 · £1 +0.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Brian Hughes 26.9% vs 9.6% · n=119

On last-time-out winners 23.1% vs 9.6% · n=108

At Sedgefield 23.2% vs 9.6% · n=56

At Perth 18.8% vs 9.6% · n=101

In Class 4 17.3% vs 9.6% · n=197

With C&D winners 18% vs 9.6% · n=89

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 639 53 8.3% −243.94

Chase 314 39 12.4% −36.80

Flat 77 11 14.3% +45.43

NH Flat 69 3 4.3% −52.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 426 58 13.6% −45.39

Soft 297 21 7.1% −126.93

Heavy 200 9 4.5% −124.50

Good to Soft 117 9 7.7% −47.34

Good to Firm 42 7 16.7% +22.85

Standard (AW) 16 2 12.5% +34.50

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Limerick 152 8 5.3% −94.75

Killarney 102 8 7.8% −25.10

Perth 101 19 18.8% +32.96

Listowel 93 6 6.5% −34.12

Catterick 60 10 16.7% −8.95

Sedgefield 56 13 23.2% −15.33

Cork 47 1 2.1% −40.00

Thurles 45 2 4.4% −33.00

Clonmel 36 1 2.8% −23.00

Galway 32 1 3.1% −17.00

Cheltenham 25 3 12% +6.00

Leopardstown 20 0 0% −20.00

Kelso 20 4 20% −0.25

Wetherby 19 2 10.5% −8.50

Carlisle 16 2 12.5% −5.17

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 197 34 17.3% +27.61

Class 5 115 18 15.7% −16.42

Class 1 61 6 9.8% −6.00

Class 3 51 9 17.6% −3.38

Class 2 28 4 14.3% +26.50

Class 6 21 6 28.6% +54.85

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 64 26 40.6% 1.37 +4.84

2nd–3rd fav 217 45 20.7% 1.27 +9.85

4th–6th fav 312 23 7.4% 1.08 −76.50

7th+ in betting 506 12 2.4% 0.86 −226.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 499 47 9.4% −129.77

1m5f – 2m 299 27 9% −82.63

2m5f – 3m 219 21 9.6% −76.87

Over 3m 29 5 17.2% −7.29

1m – 1m1f 18 4 22.2% +31.25

1m2f – 1m4f 17 1 5.9% −14.00

6f – 7f 15 1 6.7% −5.50

Under 6f 3 0 0% −3.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 33 3 9.1% +4.00

2009 46 1 2.2% −31.00

2010 34 6 17.6% +23.00

2011 48 4 8.3% −25.50

2012 42 2 4.8% −28.00

2013 51 3 5.9% −11.00

2014 51 2 3.9% −39.00

2015 56 4 7.1% −35.25

2016 58 3 5.2% −21.00

2017 69 1 1.4% −52.00

2018 68 1 1.5% −66.10

2019 38 1 2.6% −35.12

2020 37 0 0% −37.00

2021 38 3 7.9% −18.00

2022 18 1 5.6% −7.00

2023 65 10 15.4% +8.41

2024 92 14 15.2% +60.49

2025 124 20 16.1% −41.09

2026 131 27 20.6% +63.35

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 553 65 11.8% −41.90

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 241 33 13.7% +23.01

11-13 runners 227 20 8.8% −11.02

14-16 runners 216 8 3.7% −121.00

17+ runners 206 7 3.4% −144.12

5-7 runners 175 24 13.7% −56.74

2-4 runners 34 14 41.2% +22.06

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.9% completed · 953 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 314 77.1% 21 13 38 0 0

Hurdle 639 87.3% 14 5 60 0 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Toomdeely (IRE) 44 2 10 28 Dec 16

Rockshandy (IRE) 38 3 10 24 Aug 17

Rightville Boy (IRE) 35 4 11 28 Dec 18

Queen Khaleesi (IRE) 25 1 8 29 Dec 18

Upfordebate (IRE) 24 7 8 31 Oct 26

Cosmic Soul (IRE)from James Horton 23 5 10 7 Oct 26

Mackey Boy (IRE) 23 2 5 11 Sep 17

The Real Whacker (IRE) 21 5 7 31 Oct 26

Shesaportrait (IRE) 21 2 8 9 Oct 16

Tanking Along (IRE) 20 4 8 31 Oct 26

Iusetaluvheronce (IRE)then Tim Vaughan 20 0 4 23 Aug 18

Chrisdonlady (IRE) 20 2 3 12 Jul 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 142 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive; 42 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for Dylan Cunha (2) and Tim Vaughan (2); 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

91077887121313912

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderBrian Hughes

11% of all rides
26.9% SR · A/E 1.54

RiderRWSR£1

Brian Hughes 119 32 26.9% +25.65

Tom Doyle 78 7 9% −13.00

Miss M M McElligott 55 3 5.5% −17.50

Henry Brooke 53 9 17% +26.53

Ryan Treacy 52 2 3.8% −22.00

G B Noonan 50 2 4% −40.12

B C Byrnes 40 3 7.5% −3.00

Cathal Landers 39 1 2.6% −37.10

Mark Enright 38 2 5.3% −27.00

Gavin Sheehan 32 4 12.5% −8.37

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

106

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.53m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 27 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

The Real Whacker (IRE) — Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Broadway Novices' Chase) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2023 · Grade 1

£102,095

The Real Whacker (IRE) — bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Wetherby · Nov 2024 · Grade 2

£56,950

The Real Whacker (IRE) — Paddy Power Novices' Chase (Registered As The Dipper Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Jan 2023 · Grade 2

£31,323

Notable horses

Upfordebate (IRE) Here Comes Georgie (GB) Cosmic Soul (IRE) The Real Whacker (IRE) Rightville Boy (IRE) Tanking Along (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Cloudings (IRE) 11.3% · 9–80

Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,887 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 411. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 815.

Mahler (GB) 17.5% · 10–57

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,871 runs since 2014 (786 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Saddlers' Hall (IRE) 4.3% · 2–46

Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).

Anshan (GB) 9.1% · 4–44

Progeny have won 9.6% of 4,216 runs since 2008 (387 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 520.

Westerner (GB) 2.4% · 1–41

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,853 runs since 2009 (943 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Portrait Gallery (IRE) 5.1% · 2–39

Progeny have won 11% of 1,448 runs since 2008 (124 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.3% from 223.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,102 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,102 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 December 2007 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

31 Oct 26 Wetherby Upfordebate (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Bet365 Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 11/2

31 Oct 26 Wetherby The Real Whacker (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Bet365 Charlie Hall Steeple Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good · 6 ran 4th 9/2

31 Oct 26 Wetherby Tanking Along (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Position Payout At Bet365 Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good · 8 ran 4th 11/4

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Follow Your Luck (IRE)J: Brian Hughes William Hill Price Boosts 'chasing Excellence' Novices' Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 25f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 2nd 18/1

23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Datstheholyallofit (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Mccoy Contractors Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 17/2

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Longshanks Luke (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Happy 80th Birthday William 'bill' Carr Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Soft · 6 ran 1st 17/2

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Going On (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Mw Civils & Groundworks Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 5 ran 5th 6/4F

15 Oct 26 Perth Cockle Bay Wharf (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Racing Tv Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 4 ran 3rd 25/1

15 Oct 26 Perth Tanking Along (IRE)J: Brian Hughes RacingTV, Home Of Live Racing Handicap Steeple Chase (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Soft · 8 ran 1st 4/1

15 Oct 26 Perth Fearless Dragon (GB)J: Brian Hughes Join Racing TV Now Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 12/1

10 Oct 26 York Alfred Wincham (IRE)J: Oisin Orr Sky Bet Extra Places Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 14f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 11/4F

10 Oct 26 Hexham Medieval Gold (GB)J: Brian Hughes Tackling Insights Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 23.5f · Good · 6 ran 1st 3/1

07 Oct 26 Sedgefield Cosmic Soul (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Roxyfet Sports Lounge For Private Hire Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 21f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 5/1

04 Oct 26 Kelso Upfordebate (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Scottish Racing Academy Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 26f · Good To Firm · 3 ran 1st 5/4F

29 Sep 26 Sedgefield Tanking Along (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Paxtons No1 Caseih Dealer Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Monet's Garden Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good · 4 ran 1st 3/1

24 Sep 26 Perth Medieval Gold (GB)J: Brian Hughes Edinburgh Gin Owner Trainer Jockey Awards Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 11 ran 4th 9/1

24 Sep 26 Perth Upfordebate (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Equine Products UK Best Turned Out Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 9 ran 1st 8/1

24 Sep 26 Perth The Last Cloud (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Christmas Party Nights At Perth Racecourse Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 13/8F

24 Sep 26 Perth Datstheholyallofit (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Saltire Hospitality EBF Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (EBF Mares' Nh Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 5 ran 1st 11/2

23 Sep 26 Perth The Real Whacker (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 1st 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 10 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 2) · to 31 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Patrick Neville's strike rate?: Patrick Neville has won 106 of 1,099 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.6% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick Neville do best at?: Sedgefield by strike rate: 13 wins from 56 runners (23.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Patrick Neville?: Brian Hughes, with 119 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 32 (26.9%).
Is Patrick Neville in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Patrick Neville's Fair A/E?: 1.18, from 1,095 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.