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Trainer profile

Paul Rich

139 runners in the lifetime window · 27 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jan 2013
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
16–139
Wins / Runs
11.5%
Strike rate
n=139
52 (37%)
Placed
1.12
Fair A/E
n=138 · 0.96 incl. margin
−41.38
£1 level stake
n=139 at SP · −29.8%
£51,025
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.12).

Deterministic profile computed from 139 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 8.3% (n=48, Fair A/E 0.91). The yard also read well in Class 6 (22.9%, n=48) and on Standard (AW) going (19.7%, n=61). The market has also underrated the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 1.40 across 72 runners (16.7% strike, +0.37 to a £1 stake). The record read poorly in Class 5 — 4.1% over 49 runners, 7.4pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.5%−7.0
n=22 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −15.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
4%−7.5
n=25 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −18.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−11.5
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
25%+13.5
n=4 · A/E 1.79 · £1 −0.75
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.1%−2.4
n=11 · A/E 1.08 · £1 +0.00
When favourite
31.3%
n=16 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −0.63
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.3%−3.2
n=48 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −20.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Class 6 22.9% vs 11.5% · n=48
On Standard (AW) going 19.7% vs 11.5% · n=61
In Class 5 4.1% vs 11.5% · n=49
With a new jockey booking 5.5% vs 11.5% · n=73
In Flat races 16.7% vs 11.5% · n=72
Over 1m5f – 2m 5.6% vs 11.5% · n=36
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 72 12 16.7% +0.37
Hurdle 48 4 8.3% −22.75
Chase 18 0 0% −18.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 61 12 19.7% +11.37
Good 29 2 6.9% −13.75
Good to Firm 17 0 0% −17.00
Good to Soft 16 1 6.3% −11.50
Soft 9 1 11.1% −3.50
Heavy 6 0 0% −6.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW) 19 6 31.6% +16.12
Kempton (AW) 16 1 6.3% −7.00
Lingfield (AW) 15 2 13.3% −4.00
Southwell (AW) 11 3 27.3% +6.25
Worcester 9 0 0% −9.00
Uttoxeter 7 0 0% −7.00
Sandown 6 1 16.7% −1.50
Newbury 5 0 0% −5.00
Warwick 5 0 0% −5.00
Stratford 4 2 50% +11.25
Southwell 4 0 0% −4.00
Newton Abbot 4 0 0% −4.00
Huntingdon 4 0 0% −4.00
Hereford 4 1 25% +1.50
Market Rasen 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 49 2 4.1% −40.25
Class 6 48 11 22.9% +17.87
Class 4 34 2 5.9% −17.50
Class 3 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 7 1 1 100% +5.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 20 6 30% 1.12 −1.38
2nd–3rd fav 26 6 23.1% 1.45 +13.50
4th–6th fav 43 4 9.3% 1.24 −3.50
7th+ in betting 50 0 0% 0.00 −50.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Officer In Command (USA)from J S Moore · then Sean Curran 18 1 7 5 Jan 13
Minortransgression (USA)from H Edward Haynes · then Sean Curran 11 3 4 15 Nov 12
Lesley's Choice (GB)from Jo Davis · then Sean Curran 11 3 5 7 Jun 12
Sainglend (GB)from John A Supple · then Sean Curran 11 2 9 29 May 12
Waldsee (GER)from Jo Davis · then Sean Curran 10 1 4 22 May 12
Adorabella (IRE)from Simon Earle 9 0 3 4 Nov 12
Edgware Road (GB)from Keith Dalgleish · then Sean Curran 9 0 5 9 May 12
Whodathought (IRE)from Richard Hannon Snr · then Sean Curran 8 2 3 4 Jun 12
Shinrock Beat (GB)from Colin Bowe · then Barry Brennan 6 0 0 23 Sep 12
Sizing America (IRE)from Henry De Bromhead · then Sally Randell 6 0 3 20 May 12
Takhreej (IRE)from Keith Dalgleish 5 0 0 30 Apr 12
Rio Alto (IRE)from J Motherway 4 0 1 20 Jun 12
All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 27 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Keith Dalgleish (3) and H Edward Haynes (2); 2 had their first archived run for this yard.

18 have since run for another yard, most often for Sean Curran (13) and Barry Brennan (2); 9 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
725203012011000177
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Adam Kirby 20 5 25% +16.75
James Doyle 15 4 26.7% +3.37
LBdr Sally Randell 15 2 13.3% −4.50
James Davies 15 0 0% −15.00
Ben Poste 14 0 0% −14.00
Seb Sanders 6 2 33.3% +5.25
Brendan Powell 5 2 40% +12.50
Jason Maguire 4 1 25% −0.75
John Fahy 4 0 0% −4.00
Timmy Murphy 3 0 0% −3.00
Sophie Doyle 3 0 0% −3.00
Chris Catlin 3 0 0% −3.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
16
Archived wins
£51,513
Prize money
2012
Best season · 13 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Sainglend (GB) — toteplacepot Novices' Hurdle Stratford · Apr 2012 · Class 4
£2,859
Railway Rico (IRE) — Main Event Catering Selling Hurdle Stratford · Mar 2012 · Class 5
£2,599
Den Maschine (GB) — Annington Amateur Riders' Handicap Hurdle (Military Amateur Riders) Sandown · Mar 2012 · Class 4
£2,496
Notable horses
Minortransgression (USA) Lesley's Choice (GB) Den Maschine (GB) Sainglend (GB) Whodathought (IRE) Officer In Command (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Officer (USA) 5.6% · 1–18
Progeny have won 7.4% of 349 runs since 2008 (20 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.5% from 209.
Galileo (IRE) 18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,188 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 888.
Lucky Story (USA) 27.3% · 3–11
Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,554 runs since 2008 (162 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14% from 351. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.5% from 451.
Yes It's True (USA) 27.3% · 3–11
Progeny have won 7.1% of 238 runs since 2008 (17 horses).
Xaar (GB) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 6.1% of 2,429 runs since 2008 (218 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 10.7% from 122.
Revoque (IRE) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 8% of 1,805 runs since 2008 (202 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 265. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5% from 100.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 144 · newest first

The latest 50 of 144 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 January 2005 to 17 January 2013.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
17 Jan 13 Wolverhampton (AW) Boom To Bust (IRE)J: John Fahy Compare Bookies With Bookmakers.co.uk HandicapClass 4 · 9.5f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 25/1
05 Jan 13 Chepstow Lady Anne Boleyn (GB)J: James Davies Download Coral Mobile From The App Store Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Heavy · 13 ran PU 150/1
05 Jan 13 Lingfield (AW) Officer In Command (USA)J: Chris Catlin Bet On Today's Football At bluesq.com Classified Claiming StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 3/1J
21 Dec 12 Ascot Sergeant Dick (IRE)J: Jason Maguire Fernham Homes 'National Hunt' Maiden HurdleClass 3 · 21.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 5th 33/1
19 Dec 12 Newbury Boom To Bust (IRE)J: Noel Fehily Coolmation Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 18 ran 10th 20/1
06 Dec 12 Wincanton Washed Out (IRE)J: James Davies Racing Welfare Racehorse Owners 'national Hunt' Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 66/1
05 Dec 12 Lingfield (AW) Officer In Command (USA)J: John Fahy lingfieldpark.co.uk HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 10/1
28 Nov 12 Kempton (AW) Officer In Command (USA)J: John Fahy Back Or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 10f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 10/1
15 Nov 12 Kempton (AW) Minortransgression (USA)J: Adam Kirby 32 Free At 32Red.com HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 50/1
06 Nov 12 Southwell (AW) Minortransgression (USA)J: Adam Kirby 32Red.com HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 10/1
04 Nov 12 Huntingdon Adorabella (IRE)J: LBdr Sally Randell Ben's 16th Birthday Claiming HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Soft · 12 ran PU 33/1
31 Oct 12 Kempton (AW) Officer In Command (USA)J: John Fahy sportinglife.com Racing HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 8/1
27 Oct 12 Newbury Sweet Louise (IRE)J: Kirsty Milczarek saxon-gate.com E.B.F. Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Str)Class 4 · 8f · Heavy · 14 ran 14th 100/1
25 Oct 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Minortransgression (USA)J: Adam Kirby Guaranteed $2Million Jackpot Pool HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 20/1
25 Oct 12 Ludlow Adorabella (IRE)J: James Davies AIUA/Bluefin Agricultural Insurance Specialists Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 12th 66/1
23 Oct 12 Lingfield (AW) Officer In Command (USA)J: James Doyle Follow Us On Twitter At LingfieldPark HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 5th 12/1
23 Sep 12 Uttoxeter Adorabella (IRE)J: James Davies 32Red Casino Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 16 ran 12th 16/1
23 Sep 12 Uttoxeter Shinrock Beat (GB)J: Tom Scudamore 32Red.com Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 11 ran PU 14/1
15 Sep 12 Kempton (AW) Officer In Command (USA)J: Dane O'Neill Better Prices On Betfair Mobile Handicap (Betfair 10 Furlong Flat Series Qualifier) (Div 2)Class 5 · 10f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 12/1
11 Sep 12 Worcester Adorabella (IRE)J: James Davies At The Races Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 10/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Rich's strike rate?
Paul Rich has won 16 of 139 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.5% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Paul Rich's Fair A/E?
1.12, from 138 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).