Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.78).
Deterministic profile computed from 690 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 23 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Feb–AprSean O'Keeffe: 1.3% from 79New recruits: 4.3%Claiming riders: 3.7%
The read
The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.68 and −140.00 to a £1 stake over 197 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Sean O'Keeffe rides 11% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (1.3%, A/E 0.58). The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (6.1%, n=49). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.33 across 238 runners (0.8% strike, −201.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Apr.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.5%−0.5
n=197 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −140.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.3%+1.3
n=47 · A/E 1.35 · £1 −29.00
Debutants · first career start
2.5%−0.5
n=79 · A/E 1.55 · £1 −43.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.6%−0.4
n=38 · A/E 1.48 · £1 −17.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.0
n=27 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −27.00
When favourite
11.1%
n=9 · A/E 0.37 · £1 −6.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.7%+0.7
n=300 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −143.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.0
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Mr B O Walsh9.1% vs 3% · n=33
At Punchestown5.4% vs 3% · n=257
In Chase races5.3% vs 3% · n=319
Beyond 3m5.8% vs 3% · n=86
On Good to Firm going6.1% vs 3% · n=49
In Hurdle races0.8% vs 3% · n=238
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase319175.3%−115.00
Hurdle23820.8%−201.00
Flat7711.3%−56.00
NH Flat5611.8%−51.50
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft22252.3%−168.50
Good18963.2%−87.50
Heavy11565.2%−40.00
Good to Soft10011%−85.00
Good to Firm4936.1%−27.50
Standard (AW)1200%−12.00
Firm300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown257145.4%−79.50
Down Royal4424.5%−24.50
Navan2414.2%−7.00
Gowran Park2400%−24.00
Roscommon2300%−23.00
Naas2300%−23.00
Cork2200%−22.00
Kilbeggan2200%−22.00
Clonmel2114.8%−15.50
Killarney1900%−19.00
Ballinrobe1800%−18.00
Galway1616.3%+5.00
Limerick1600%−16.00
Downpatrick1600%−16.00
Fairyhouse1500%−15.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 21218.3%+3.00
Class 1600%−6.00
Class 5300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite13215.4%0.58−5.00
2nd–3rd fav47612.8%0.95−11.50
4th–6th fav12764.7%0.79−47.00
7th+ in betting50371.4%0.71−360.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m19773.6%−131.00
2m1f – 2m4f19252.6%−136.50
1m5f – 2m14932%−107.50
Over 3m8655.8%−3.50
6f – 7f3313%−12.00
1m – 1m1f2000%−20.00
1m2f – 1m4f800%−8.00
Under 6f500%−5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20091616.3%+5.00
20101700%−17.00
20112400%−24.00
20122613.8%−17.00
201322313.6%+13.50
20143213.1%−17.00
20154512.2%−24.00
20165559.1%−16.50
20174824.2%−34.50
20185511.8%−52.00
20195911.7%−46.00
20202800%−28.00
20214500%−45.00
202226311.5%+26.00
20233912.6%−5.00
20245300%−53.00
20256011.7%−49.00
20264000%−40.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps20773.4%−100.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners23762.5%−132.50
11-13 runners17263.5%−111.00
17+ runners14932%−108.50
8-10 runners9855.1%−43.50
5-7 runners3412.9%−28.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 126 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Robert Tyner (2); 35 had their first archived run for this yard.
10 have since run for another yard; 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
456832220010
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9% of 1,243 runs since 2008 (143 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.6% from 197. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.8% from 125.
Gold Well (GB)10.5% · 4–38
Progeny have won 12.2% of 5,648 runs since 2008 (363 horses).
Witness Box (USA)2.6% · 1–38
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,675 runs since 2008 (194 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 4% from 173.
Progeny have won 7.3% of 409 runs since 2008 (33 horses).
Milan (GB)9.7% · 3–31
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,852 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Bishop of Cashel (GB)13.3% · 4–30
Progeny have won 7.7% of 701 runs since 2008 (69 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.8% from 105.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 23 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 690 · newest first
The latest 50 of 690 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 May 2009 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Peter Maher's strike rate?
Peter Maher has won 21 of 690 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Peter Maher do best at?
Punchestown by strike rate: 14 wins from 257 runners (5.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Peter Maher?
Sean O'Keeffe, with 79 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.3%).
Is Peter Maher in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Peter Maher's Fair A/E?
0.78, from 690 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Peter Maher·SR 3%·A/E 0.78
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy