Skip to content
Trainer profile

Seb Spencer

695 runners in the lifetime window · 87 individual horses
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago 99% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
48–695
Wins / Runs
6.9%
Strike rate
n=695
166 (24%)
Placed
0.93
Fair A/E
n=692 · 0.78 incl. margin
−188.16
£1 level stake
n=695 at SP · −27.1%
£469k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5.2%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 12% (33 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 695 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun 31.3% when favourite Dale Swift: 9% from 379 Headgear returns: 12.1% Sends off the favourite in 5% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Wolverhampton (AW) (12.8%, n=78), clear of the yard's 6.9% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 12.1% (n=33, Fair A/E 1.80), but debutants struggle at 0% (n=33, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.50 and −65.00 to a £1 stake over 131 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Dale Swift rides 55% of the entries and edges the yard's average (9% vs 6.9%, A/E 1.10) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 54 runners, 6.9pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Desert Dream (GB) — 5 wins from 54 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.3%−4.6
n=131 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −65.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.2%−1.7
n=58 · A/E 0.86 · £1 +24.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.9
n=33 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −33.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7.1%+0.2
n=14 · A/E 1.14 · £1 +20.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
12.1%+5.2
n=33 · A/E 1.80 · £1 +0.33
When favourite
31.3%
n=32 · A/E 1.26 · £1 +1.18
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.1%−2.8
n=169 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −113.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 17.3% vs 6.9% · n=52
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 6.9% · n=54
At Wolverhampton (AW) 12.8% vs 6.9% · n=78
With C&D winners 12.1% vs 6.9% · n=124
In Class 3 0% vs 6.9% · n=33
With debutants 0% vs 6.9% · n=33
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 689 48 7% −182.16
NH Flat 5 0 0% −5.00
Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 295 19 6.4% −76.19
Good 168 14 8.3% −47.55
Good to Firm 101 6 5.9% +5.08
Good to Soft 62 3 4.8% −38.75
Soft 61 6 9.8% −22.75
Heavy 8 0 0% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 140 7 5% −39.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 78 10 12.8% +29.98
Doncaster 60 5 8.3% +3.50
Southwell (AW) 59 2 3.4% −49.17
Catterick 57 7 12.3% −16.92
Thirsk 47 2 4.3% +25.00
Redcar 46 5 10.9% −15.42
Ayr 29 2 6.9% −8.50
Beverley 23 0 0% −23.00
York 20 0 0% −20.00
Carlisle 15 2 13.3% −0.25
Nottingham 14 0 0% −14.00
Ripon 13 2 15.4% −4.50
Hamilton 13 0 0% −13.00
Haydock 11 0 0% −11.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 273 22 8.1% −25.86
Class 5 241 17 7.1% −58.75
Class 4 128 9 7% −50.55
Class 3 33 0 0% −33.00
Class 2 16 0 0% −16.00
Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 38 10 26.3% 1.10 −4.82
2nd–3rd fav 113 15 13.3% 0.87 −30.84
4th–6th fav 222 14 6.3% 0.88 −52.50
7th+ in betting 322 9 2.8% 0.96 −100.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Desert Dream (GB)from Michael Easterby 54 5 19 28 Oct 25
Little Muddy (GB) 37 4 13 7 Jun 25
Archduke Ferdinand (IRE)from Tracy Waggott 34 5 11 23 Oct 26
Sense Of Worth (IRE)from Lee Carter 32 3 7 2 Jan 26
Crocodile Power (IRE)from John Quinn 29 4 14 21 May 26
Jet Set Go (GB) 22 0 6 28 Sep 22
Muddy Lynn (GB) 20 2 5 17 Dec 24
Don't Be Surprised (GB) 19 0 4 3 Mar 21
Victory March (IRE)from Denis Gerard Hogan · then Rebecca Menzies 17 5 9 6 Nov 23
Vince Lombardi (GB)from Jim Boyle 14 3 5 30 Sep 26
Darla's Secret (IRE) 14 0 1 16 Mar 26
Bearaway (IRE)from Hughie Morrison · then Simon Pearce 14 0 2 20 Sep 24
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 87 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 38 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John & Sean Quinn (6) and Adrian Paul Keatley (2); 22 had their first archived run for this yard.

17 have since run for another yard, most often for John Wainwright (2) and Lawrence Mullaney (2); 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
33229869510616
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDale Swift
55% of all rides
9% SR · A/E 1.10
RiderRWSR£1
Dale Swift 379 34 9% −18.91
Alex Jary 39 5 12.8% +2.00
Shay Farmer 35 2 5.7% −26.75
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
48
Archived wins
£469k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 14 wins
Archduke Ferdinand (IRE) — JenningsBet Grey Horse Handicap Newmarket · Aug 2024 · Class 4
£10,308
Lorna B (IRE) — British EBF Fillies' Handicap Carlisle · Jul 2025 · Class 4
£8,505
Top Juggler (IRE) — John Smith's Handicap Chester · Jul 2026 · Class 4
£7,731
Notable horses
Desert Dream (GB) Archduke Ferdinand (IRE) Victory March (IRE) Little Muddy (GB) Crocodile Power (IRE) Lorna B (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Oasis Dream (GB) 8.8% · 5–57
Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,026 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 483. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.
Kodiac (GB) 8.1% · 3–37
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,582 runs since 2010 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.
Mr Medici (IRE) 10.8% · 4–37
Progeny have won 5.4% of 74 runs since 2020 (7 horses).
Zoffany (IRE) 18.9% · 7–37
Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,773 runs since 2015 (799 horses).
Gutaifan (IRE) 14.7% · 5–34
Progeny have won 8.9% of 3,762 runs since 2019 (302 horses).
Monsieur Bond (IRE) 0% · 0–33
Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,981 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 695 · newest first

The latest 50 of 695 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 January 2018 to 30 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Al Muddy (GB)J: Dale Swift Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 125/1
24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Janora (IRE)J: Dale Swift All-weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 33/1
23 Oct 26 Doncaster Archduke Ferdinand (IRE)J: Shay Farmer William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 11 ran 7th 16/1
20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Al Muddy (GB)J: Dale Swift AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 100/1
19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Lorna B (IRE)J: Dale Swift Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 28/1
06 Oct 26 Leicester Soca Star (IRE)J: Shay Farmer Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 5th 11/1
02 Oct 26 Ascot Suspicious Mindz (GB)J: Dale Swift Colliers Business Rates Experts Classified StakesClass 3 · 8f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 10/1
01 Oct 26 Nottingham Perineighs (IRE)J: Dale Swift Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 10th 40/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Sea The Power (FR)J: Dale Swift Amstel Gallop Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 7 ran 6th 18/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Vince Lombardi (GB)J: Dale Swift Bet At racingtv.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 9th 50/1
25 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Janora (IRE)J: Shay Farmer Mmb Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 5 ran 3rd 8/1
25 Sep 26 Haydock Great Dream (GB)J: Dale Swift Christopher Ward Watchmaking Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Soft · 11 ran 10th 80/1
23 Sep 26 Redcar Night Wolf (GB)J: Dale Swift Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 12 ran 9th 25/1
19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Muddy Marvellous (GB)J: Shay Farmer Quinnbet.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 50/1
19 Sep 26 Chester Top Juggler (IRE)J: Dale Swift Kidsbank Chester Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Heavy · 10 ran 8th 10/1
18 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) G'Emmethegreenlite (IRE)J: Shay Farmer Pertemps Network Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 80/1
18 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Enjoy The Night (IRE)J: Shay Farmer Jjx Logistics Going The Distance Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 7/2
17 Sep 26 Ayr Green Pursuit (IRE)J: Dale Swift Idp Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 7/1
14 Sep 26 Thirsk Soca Star (IRE)J: Dale Swift decronhorsecare.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 14/1
13 Sep 26 Doncaster Archduke Ferdinand (IRE)J: Shay Farmer Duncan Pearce Memorial Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 10th 15/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 23 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · to 23 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Seb Spencer's strike rate?
Seb Spencer has won 48 of 695 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.9% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Seb Spencer do best at?
Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 10 wins from 78 runners (12.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Seb Spencer?
Dale Swift, with 379 runners since 2008 — 55% of the total. That pairing has won 34 (9%).
Is Seb Spencer in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Seb Spencer's Fair A/E?
0.93, from 692 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 1 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).