Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sent out around 70 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.86).
Deterministic profile computed from 997 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFired Feb–Mar27.1% when favouriteMark Walsh: 9.3% from 86Sent off the favourite in 10% of races
The read
The record is strongest at Limerick (16.7%, n=54) and Down Royal (16.7%, n=54) — all clear of the yard's 8.4% baseline. It is weakest at Leopardstown (0% over 58 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 5.4% (n=37, Fair A/E 0.61). Mark Walsh rode 9% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.3%, A/E 0.91). The record read poorly in Flat races — 1.9% over 54 runners, 6.5pts below the baseline. 28 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 2005, £212,268). The stable star of the record was Finger Onthe Pulse (IRE) — 9 wins from 43 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Feb–Mar.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.9%−1.5
n=276 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −117.64
New recruits · first run for the yard
14.3%+5.9
n=14 · A/E 1.40 · £1 −6.38
Debutants · first career start
8.6%+0.2
n=93 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −8.25
First-time headgear · true-first definition
5.4%−3.0
n=37 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.3%−2.1
n=16 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −11.00
When favourite
27.1%
n=96 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −17.86
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.1%−0.3
n=308 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −125.02
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
9.7%+1.3
n=154 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −63.60
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Leopardstown0% vs 8.4% · n=58
At Limerick16.7% vs 8.4% · n=54
At Down Royal16.7% vs 8.4% · n=54
With T G M Ryan0% vs 8.4% · n=36
With Paul Townend15.4% vs 8.4% · n=52
In Flat races1.9% vs 8.4% · n=54
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle498387.6%−257.64
Chase3313510.6%−150.10
NH Flat114108.8%−23.38
Flat5411.9%−51.25
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft3073210.4%−122.87
Heavy266217.9%−170.90
Good239197.9%−108.76
Good to Soft10198.9%−9.59
Good to Firm6922.9%−58.00
Standard (AW)1119.1%−8.25
Firm400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown10155%−75.75
Fairyhouse771013%−24.34
Navan6957.2%−47.67
Leopardstown5800%−58.00
Limerick54916.7%−19.11
Down Royal54916.7%−0.59
Cork5123.9%−38.00
Gowran Park49612.2%−13.42
Naas4636.5%−26.70
Thurles40512.5%−18.00
Galway4012.5%−17.00
Clonmel38410.5%−21.67
Downpatrick3438.8%−24.87
Sligo3239.4%+15.62
Kilbeggan27311.1%+14.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1152149.2%−57.10
Class 21000%−10.00
Class 4800%−8.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Class 6100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite1182722.9%0.89−37.36
2nd–3rd fav2283917.1%1.14−34.51
4th–6th fav318113.5%0.51−210.50
7th+ in betting33372.1%0.63−200.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m392297.4%−216.31
2m1f – 2m4f374359.4%−157.22
2m5f – 3m167169.6%−59.09
Over 3m4137.3%−29.50
1m2f – 1m4f900%−9.00
1m – 1m1f9111.1%−6.25
6f – 7f500%−5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008177179.6%−91.76
2009174116.3%−88.45
201012853.9%−86.25
20115858.6%−32.13
2012961212.5%−40.42
2013901011.1%−18.10
20143425.9%−19.00
20156169.8%−23.42
201653611.3%−1.50
20174612.2%−40.00
20182827.1%−21.09
201919315.8%−4.50
202026311.5%−11.75
20217114.3%−4.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps302206.6%−134.67
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
17+ runners293155.1%−183.87
14-16 runners256197.4%−66.42
11-13 runners177179.6%−105.64
8-10 runners163106.1%−107.50
5-7 runners921617.4%−30.50
2-4 runners16743.8%+11.56
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 144 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tom Tate (4); 50 had their first archived run for this yard.
25 have since run for another yard, most often for Dr Richard Newland (2) and Jonjo O'Neill (2); 35 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
9131046777139711
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
165
Archived wins
28
Pattern / graded wins
£3.99m
Prize money
2006
Best season · 41 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Kicking King (IRE) — totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Cheltenham · Mar 2005 · Class 1
£212,268
Kicking King (IRE) — Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2005 · Grade 1
£139,500
Finger Onthe Pulse (IRE) — www.thetote.com Galway Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade A) Galway · Jul 2010 · Grade A
Progeny have won 11.7% of 6,916 runs since 2008 (630 horses).
Oscar (IRE)8% · 7–87
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Flemensfirth (USA)7.9% · 5–63
Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,288 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).
Presenting (GB)10.7% · 6–56
Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.
Accordion (IRE)12.8% · 6–47
Progeny have won 10.8% of 3,309 runs since 2008 (327 horses).
Definite Article (GB)7.1% · 3–42
Progeny have won 10.5% of 5,617 runs since 2008 (527 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.1% from 138. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.3% from 211.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,643 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,643 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 21 March 2021.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is T J Taaffe's strike rate?
T J Taaffe has won 84 of 997 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does T J Taaffe do best at?
Limerick by strike rate: 9 wins from 54 runners (16.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for T J Taaffe?
Mark Walsh, with 86 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (9.3%).
What is T J Taaffe's Fair A/E?
0.86, from 997 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
T J Taaffe·SR 8.4%·A/E 0.86
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