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Trainer profile

Terence O'Brien

1,383 runners in the lifetime window · 182 individual horses
As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
135–1,383
Wins / Runs
9.8%
Strike rate
n=1,383
399 (29%)
Placed
1.13
Fair A/E
n=1,382 · 0.89 incl. margin
−302.85
£1 level stake
n=1,383 at SP · −21.9%
£2.18m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
9.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 70 runners a season, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.13). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 14% (59 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,383 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr Fresh horses: 10.9% 29.9% when favourite John Shinnick: 11.9% from 253 New recruits: 12.7% Claiming riders: 10.6% Sends off the favourite in 9% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Clonmel (18.3%, n=115), Fairyhouse (16.2%, n=68) and Navan (15.8%, n=38) — all clear of the yard's 9.8% baseline. It is weakest at Punchestown (3.4% over 87 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a positive signal at 13.6% (n=59, Fair A/E 1.68), but debutants struggle at 3.9% (n=127, Fair A/E 0.67). John Shinnick rides 18% of the entries and edges the yard's average (11.9% vs 9.8%, A/E 1.23) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 11 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Guinness Handicap Chase at Punchestown (Apr 2015, £60,000). The stable star of the record: Ballyadam Brook (IRE) — 7 wins from 49 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.9%+1.1
n=322 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −10.62
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.7%+2.9
n=55 · A/E 1.47 · £1 +6.87
Debutants · first career start
3.9%−5.9
n=127 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −90.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
13.6%+3.8
n=59 · A/E 1.68 · £1 +2.75
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
11.4%+1.6
n=35 · A/E 1.50 · £1 −6.50
When favourite
29.9%
n=127 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −2.38
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.6%+0.8
n=682 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −129.97
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
9.9%+0.1
n=111 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −18.62

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Clonmel 18.3% vs 9.8% · n=115
At Punchestown 3.4% vs 9.8% · n=87
With debutants 3.9% vs 9.8% · n=127
With A P Heskin 17.1% vs 9.8% · n=41
At Fairyhouse 16.2% vs 9.8% · n=68
At Navan 15.8% vs 9.8% · n=38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 778 62 8% −245.89
Chase 344 46 13.4% +7.58
Flat 149 13 8.7% −31.87
NH Flat 112 14 12.5% −32.67

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 482 38 7.9% −232.55
Heavy 380 47 12.4% +35.21
Good 310 23 7.4% −125.92
Good to Soft 146 18 12.3% −0.59
Standard (AW) 39 6 15.4% +30.00
Good to Firm 25 3 12% −8.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Cork 158 10 6.3% −96.25
Limerick 125 12 9.6% −49.37
Clonmel 115 21 18.3% +58.82
Thurles 95 6 6.3% −28.50
Punchestown 87 3 3.4% −65.50
Killarney 82 8 9.8% −44.91
Listowel 75 9 12% +31.00
Gowran Park 70 6 8.6% −39.25
Fairyhouse 68 11 16.2% +15.00
Tipperary 57 5 8.8% +41.00
Tramore 56 5 8.9% −8.00
Galway 51 4 7.8% −28.00
Naas 43 6 14% +2.75
Leopardstown 41 2 4.9% −23.50
Dundalk 39 6 15.4% +30.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 100 10 10% −11.37
Class 5 6 1 16.7% −0.50
Class 4 4 2 50% +0.16
Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 154 41 26.6% 1.16 −11.88
2nd–3rd fav 282 48 17% 1.19 −17.47
4th–6th fav 343 28 8.2% 1.14 −71.50
7th+ in betting 604 18 3% 0.94 −202.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
86% completed · 1,122 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 344 78.8% 18 13 41 1 0
Hurdle 778 89.2% 12 9 60 2 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Ballyadam Brook (IRE) 49 7 15 11 Dec 16
Glenquest (IRE)then S R B Crawford 41 3 13 12 May 14
Viaduct Joey (IRE) 39 5 11 27 Aug 15
Lakemilan (IRE) 37 6 17 18 Oct 20
More Madness (IRE)then N W Alexander 34 3 12 2 May 15
Veneziano Springs (FR)then Denis Gerard Hogan 29 2 8 1 Jul 21
Magnor Glory (IRE) 27 5 9 23 Sep 26
Leahman (GB)then J Beamish 26 1 3 10 Apr 22
Mill Quest (IRE)then Gordon Elliott 26 1 6 19 Apr 18
Articulum (IRE) 25 4 15 18 Apr 21
Ibetellingyoualie (IRE) 23 2 10 20 Mar 18
Castle Anshan (IRE) 22 2 4 5 Jun 14
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 182 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive; 42 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for Denis Gerard Hogan (2); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
101012111136101391010
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJohn Shinnick
18% of all rides
11.9% SR · A/E 1.23
RiderRWSR£1
John Shinnick 253 30 11.9% −49.42
David Splaine 115 8 7% −64.00
Paul Townend 82 10 12.2% −28.75
Kevin Coleman 63 6 9.5% +52.00
Mr D Allen 57 7 12.3% −14.50
Phillip Enright 52 3 5.8% −4.00
A P Heskin 41 7 17.1% +21.75
Davy Condon 40 3 7.5% −13.17
Mr R O Harding 33 2 6.1% −22.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→
135
Archived wins
11
Pattern / graded wins
£2.18m
Prize money
2024
Best season · 13 wins
Ballyadam Approach (IRE) — Guinness Handicap Chase (Grade A) Punchestown · Apr 2015 · Grade A
£60,000
Answer To Kayf (GB) — Bar One Racing Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Navan · Nov 2025 · Grade 3
£59,000
Magnor Glory (IRE) — Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) Listowel · Sep 2022 · Grade B
£59,000
Notable horses
Ballyadam Brook (IRE) Lakemilan (IRE) Viaduct Joey (IRE) Magnor Glory (IRE) Emancipator (IRE) She's Got Grit (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Turtle Island (IRE) 8% · 7–87
Progeny have won 7.5% of 3,325 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.7% from 215.
Milan (GB) 10% · 7–70
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,877 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Flemensfirth (USA) 22.2% · 12–54
Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,288 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).
Alderbrook (GB) 13.2% · 7–53
Progeny have won 9.7% of 3,293 runs since 2008 (299 horses).
Mahler (GB) 6.3% · 3–48
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,880 runs since 2014 (789 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Traditionally (USA) 10.6% · 5–47
Progeny have won 8.1% of 1,178 runs since 2008 (93 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.4% from 114. Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 196. Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 12% from 175. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.3% from 184.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,383 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,383 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2008 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Courtbrack Boy (IRE)J: John Shinnick Prior Park Service Station Clonmel Handicap Steeplechase17f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 1st 9/1
05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Dunville Destiny (IRE)J: John Shinnick Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 11 ran 8th 150/1
26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Ballyadam Star (IRE)J: Mr D Allen Electric Galway (C & G) (Pro/Am) Flat Race16.5f · Heavy · 7 ran 5th 11/8F
26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Wildhorserider (IRE)J: John Shinnick COLM QUINN BMW Handicap Hurdle24f · Heavy · 19 ran PU 28/1
25 Oct 26 Wexford (IRE) Lake Pippaway (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race17.5f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 28/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) George Dundee (IRE)J: Danny Power Crottys Lake Maiden Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 10th 100/1
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Plontier (FR)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Irishinjuredjockeys.com Apprentice Optional Claiming Race10.5f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 14/1
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Barryroe Madam (FR)J: Mr R Sugrue Killarney Races Handicap Steeplechase23.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran PU 20/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Awordinyourear (IRE)J: John Shinnick Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran 18th 150/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) George Dundee (IRE)J: Danny Power Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran 17th 50/1
01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Plontier (FR)J: Danny Power Slievenamon Claiming Hurdle19.5f · Good · 13 ran 3rd 22/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Ina Mina (GB)J: Oisin Orr Amstel Gallop Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 7 ran 7th 11/2
26 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Barryroe Madam (FR)J: Mr R Sugrue Kathleen Walsh Memorial Handicap Hurdle22f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 11th 14/1
25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Tippawan Haa (IRE)J: Elizabeth Gale MCG Ladies Handicap Hurdle18f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran PU 28/1
23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Magnor Glory (IRE)J: John Shinnick Devon Inn Dan Sheehan Memorial Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 14 ran PU 20/1
21 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Inchiquin Maid (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Gerard Lynch Memorial Handicap14f · Yielding · 15 ran 12th 33/1
07 Sep 26 Galway (IRE) Lake Pippaway (IRE)J: Mr A P Ryan Kenny Developments Irish EBF Mares Flat Race16.5f · Soft · 18 ran 7th 28/1
07 Sep 26 Galway (IRE) Barryroe Madam (FR)J: Michael Kenneally WTW Willis Handicap Hurdle (Div I)22.5f · Yielding · 19 ran 5th 22/1
28 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Thewaybackhome (IRE)J: John Shinnick Racing Again October 25th & 26th Handicap Steeplechase25f · Yielding · 13 ran 1st 7/2F
24 Aug 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Barryroe Madam (FR)J: John Shinnick Jerry McDonnell Memorial Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 16 ran 14th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 16 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 5 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Terence O'Brien's strike rate?
Terence O'Brien has won 135 of 1,383 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.8% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Terence O'Brien do best at?
Clonmel by strike rate: 21 wins from 115 runners (18.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Terence O'Brien?
John Shinnick, with 253 runners since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 30 (11.9%).
Is Terence O'Brien in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Terence O'Brien's Fair A/E?
1.13, from 1,382 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 7 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).