5:35 Doncaster
A 20-runner Class 5 handicap over 1m2f43y on soft ground at Doncaster looks a genuinely competitive affair. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated between 56 and 57, underlining how little separates many of these modest performers on paper. With several previous winners in the line-up and a mix of course experience and soft-ground ability, the race should reward the one best suited to the conditions and the way it unfolds.
How the race shapes up
A front-runner is expected to be pressed by several handy types, resulting in a genuinely-run, fair test over the trip. Prominent racers such as Geo, Magician of Riga, Blue Wonder, Ted Le Saux, Naturalia, Ghost Story, Draupnir and Kinross Claret should be to the fore early, while held-up performers including Mayaada, Fans Favourite, Dryburgh and You Sexy Thing will look to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the leaders can sustain their effort on the soft ground or if the race will be won by one timing its run from midfield or behind.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Mayaada57/100
Mayaada is a modest performer who arrives in decent nick after winning a 1m handicap last time out. She steps up in trip today having already won once over this distance from four attempts, though she has shown little on soft ground in one previous try. Ollie Sangster has a 19% strike rate at Doncaster while Oisin Murphy rides, though this is her first run here. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need the race to fall right in a big field. Her recent form of 244851 suggests she is competitive at this level off an OR of 70, but the combination of the longer distance and soft ground adds an element of risk.
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2Fans Favourite KTB Selection57/100
Fans Favourite is the KTB selection, a modest performer with a patchy recent record of 153108. He has won twice on soft ground from just four starts and is 2 from 3 at today's trip, though he drops back from 1m4f. Trainer Hugo Palmer's 14% strike rate at Doncaster is in line with his record elsewhere while the yard's sole previous runner here finished 11th. Cieren Fallon takes the ride and the 3-year-old is well suited by the going, with three wins or places from four runs on soft. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he can be expected to come from off the pace in a race that should be run at a true gallop, making him well placed to strike if the leaders come back to him.
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3Geo56/100
Geo is a modest performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a third in his last two starts. He has won on soft ground and at today's trip, though he steps up in distance for the first time in a while. The trainer's 9% strike rate at Doncaster is in line with his record elsewhere while Paul Mulrennan takes the mount. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is likely to be prominent early in what is set to be a genuinely-run race. Dropping in class off an OR of 70, his recent form of 234613 marks him down as one who should go well if the step back up in trip does not find him out.
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4Kokanee56/100
Kokanee is a fair performer who arrives in reasonable order having won twice from his last seven starts. He has shown he handles soft ground with a win and two places from three runs and has also won at this trip. Ed Dunlop's 9% strike rate at Doncaster is in line with their record elsewhere while Rossa Ryan rides. Typically settling in midfield, he should find a nice position just off the pace in a race that looks likely to be truly run. Dropping in class off an OR of 75, his recent form of 618943 suggests he remains competitive at this level and the soft ground looks sure to suit.
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5Magician of Riga56/100
Magician of Riga is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year with three wins from ten runs yet has failed to build on the latest of those. He steps up in trip on ground he has never tried and makes his first appearance at Doncaster. Richard Hannon's 13% strike rate here is in line with his record elsewhere while Joe Leavy takes the ride. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he should be to the fore early in what is expected to be a genuinely-run contest. His recent form of 311355 shows plenty of placed efforts and while the soft ground is an unknown, he remains a solid each-way contender off an OR of 72.
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6Blue Wonder54/100
Blue Wonder is a modest performer who arrives in decent form having won twice from his last five starts. He has won on soft ground and at today's trip, though this is his first run at Doncaster. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he should be prominent in a race that is set to be run at a true gallop.
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7Ted Le Saux54/100
Ted Le Saux is a modest performer who has shown steady improvement in five starts and was placed over today's trip on his third run. A half-brother to Listed winner Nate The Great, he now steps up in class off an official rating of 74. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead and unproven on soft ground, he makes his first appearance at Doncaster.
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8Dryburgh53/100
Dryburgh is a fair 3-year-old with a solid record of six placed efforts from 12 starts, including two placed runs at Doncaster. He has been consistent at this trip without winning, though he is unproven on soft ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the yard has a 0% strike rate from six runs at the track.
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9Unchartedterritory53/100
Unchartedterritory is a fair performer who has been in and out this season with a recent best of third over 1m4f. Drops back to 1m2f today where he is 0-2 and first-time headgear is now applied. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead and placed twice from two runs on soft, the trainer has a 9% strike rate at Doncaster from 818 runs which is below his overall figure.
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10Naples52/100
Naples is a modest performer who has struggled to make an impact this year and finished well down the field on his only previous visit to Doncaster. He has shown some competitiveness on soft ground but is now dropping back in trip having failed to make the frame in two previous runs at this distance. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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11Yermanthere51/100
Yermanthere is a modest performer who arrives in reasonable form having won two of his last six starts at this trip. He has only one win from 12 runs on soft ground though he has placed on it twice and the yard's 7% strike rate at Doncaster is below their overall figure. Usually held up and producing his effort late, this is his first appearance here after 48 starts elsewhere.
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12Naturalia51/100
Naturalia is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to rack up four wins from 35 starts. She has shown she handles soft ground with a win and a place from two runs on it and has also won at this trip. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, this is her first appearance here.
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13Ghost Story51/100
Ghost Story is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. Placed on his only previous run here and has a solid record on soft ground with two wins at today's trip from eight attempts. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead.
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14You Sexy Thing51/100
You Sexy Thing is a modest performer who has shown steady but limited progress, finishing no better than sixth in three starts this year from an official rating of 71. Has placed once from a single run at Doncaster and holds a 1-2 record on soft ground, though the first-time headgear is now added as he steps up in trip. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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15North Beach51/100
North Beach is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date and now steps up in trip for the first time with headgear applied. Half-brother to Indian Spirit, the yard records a 10% strike rate at Doncaster from 93 runs. Usually settling in midfield and unproven on soft ground.
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16Reveur47/100
Reveur is a modest performer who has failed to build on an opening win. Steps up in trip today having looked stretched at 1m1½f last time while his sole run at this distance brought no joy. Drawn 20 of 20 here where he was well beaten on his only previous visit and usually settles in midfield.
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17Draupnir44/100
Draupnir is a modest performer who has been busy and shown some consistency lately with a string of minor placings. Has a win and two places from four runs on soft ground and is placed once from three starts at today's trip though he steps up in distance for the first time in a while. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead.
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18Persian Flaw43/100
Persian Flaw is a modest 3-year-old with three runs behind him and an official rating of 67. He drops back in trip to 1m2f today after his last start over 1m3f and has shown no success at this distance in one previous attempt. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he remains unproven on soft ground.
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19Cotswold Cottage42/100
Cotswold Cottage is a modest performer who arrives in modest recent form after finishing seventh last time. The yard has a 0% strike rate from nine runners at Doncaster while the horse steps up in trip today having already won once at this distance from three attempts. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and remains unproven on soft ground.
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20Kinross Claret40/100
Kinross Claret is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in four starts and was well held on his only visit to Doncaster last time. The yard record a 13% strike rate here from eight runs. Steps up in trip for the first time today while drawn in stall 19 of 20 and usually races handily on or close to the lead.
KTB verdict
Fans Favourite is the KTB selection and his record on soft ground stands out in this field. He has won twice from four starts on the surface and holds a strong 2-3 record at today's trip, dropping back from 1m4f in a race that should be run at a true gallop. Usually held up, he is well suited to come from off the pace if the prominent runners set a strong tempo on the easy ground. The main dangers are Kokanee, who has a good record on soft and is dropping in class, and Geo, who arrives in decent nick, handles the ground and is likely to be prominent throughout. Mayaada and Magician of Riga add further depth to what looks a typically competitive Doncaster handicap.
KTB Selection Fans Favourite
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:25am, 23 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Mayaada | 9/2 | Bet365, 1:12am |
| Fans Favourite | 10/1 | Bet365, 1:12am |
| Geo | 17/2 | Bet365, 1:12am |
| Kokanee | 7/1 | Bet365, 1:12am |
| Magician of Riga | 20/1 | 7Bet, 1:12am |
| Blue Wonder | 14/1 | Bet365, 1:12am |
| Ted Le Saux | 16/1 | Bet365, 1:12am |
| Dryburgh | 7/1 | Bet365, 1:12am |
| Unchartedterritory | 6/1 | 7Bet, 1:12am |
| Naples | 100/1 | 7Bet, 1:12am |
| Yermanthere | 35/1 | 7Bet, 1:12am |
| Naturalia | 33/1 | Bet Victor, 1:12am |
| Ghost Story | 20/1 | 7Bet, 1:12am |
| You Sexy Thing | 11/1 | 7Bet, 1:12am |
| North Beach | 20/1 | Midnite, 1:12am |
| Reveur | 35/1 | 7Bet, 1:12am |
| Draupnir | 14/1 | 7Bet, 1:12am |
| Persian Flaw | 30/1 | 7Bet, 1:12am |
| Cotswold Cottage | 40/1 | 7Bet, 1:12am |
| Kinross Claret | 14/1 | Bet365, 1:12am |
This is the narrative read of the 5:35 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Doncaster racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest record on soft ground?
Fans Favourite has won twice on soft ground from just four starts.
How many horses are unproven on soft ground?
Magician of Riga, Ted Le Saux, Dryburgh, North Beach, Reveur, Persian Flaw, Cotswold Cottage and Kinross Claret are unproven on soft ground.
Which runners are likely to be prominent early?
Geo, Magician of Riga, Blue Wonder, Ted Le Saux, Naturalia, Ghost Story, Draupnir, Kinross Claret and Cotswold Cottage are all prominent or front-running types.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Doncaster among the principals?
Ollie Sangster has a 19% strike rate at Doncaster from 16 runs.
Which horse is dropping in class and has course form at Doncaster?
Dryburgh has two placed runs at Doncaster and is dropping in class.
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