What is Charlie Johnston's strike rate?

Charlie Johnston has won 521 of 4,212 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.4% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Charlie Johnston do best at?

Chelmsford (AW) by strike rate: 40 wins from 214 runners (18.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Charlie Johnston?

Joe Fanning, with 958 runners since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 129 (13.5%).

Is Charlie Johnston in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 14 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Charlie Johnston's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 4,177 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Charlie Johnston

4,212 runners in the lifetime window · 462 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 4.2% of 921 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 12 Nov 2026.

Last runner 5 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2023→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

521–4,212

Wins / Runs

12.4%

Strike rate

n=4,212

1,282 (30%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=4,177 · 0.84 incl. margin

−901.37

£1 level stake

n=4,211 at SP · −21.4%

£9.88m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 220 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). New recruits from other yards win at 17% first time out (124 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 4,212 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar 32.7% when favourite Joe Fanning: 13.5% from 958 New recruits: 16.9% Headgear returns: 15.8% Claiming riders: 15% Sends off the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Chelmsford (AW) (18.7%, n=214), clear of the yard's 12.4% baseline. It is weakest at York (3.2% over 95 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 16.9% (n=124, Fair A/E 1.26), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 7.5% (n=187, Fair A/E 0.99). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 15% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.30 and +61.52 to a £1 stake over 240 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet debutants: 9.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.83 and −96.10 to a £1 stake over 338 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Joe Fanning rides 23% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (13.5%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 6% over 580 runners, 6.4pts below the baseline. 14 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot (Oct 2023, £103,080). The stable star of the record: Sax Appeal (GB) — 10 wins from 49 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

12.4%+0.0

n=452 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −48.19

New recruits · first run for the yard

16.9%+4.5

n=124 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −14.24

Debutants · first career start

9.5%−2.9

n=338 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −96.10

First-time headgear · true-first definition

11.5%−0.9

n=139 · A/E 1.27 · £1 +13.18

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

15.8%+3.4

n=38 · A/E 1.42 · £1 +6.25

When favourite

32.7%

n=447 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −85.24

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

15%+2.6

n=240 · A/E 1.30 · £1 +61.52

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.5%−4.9

n=187 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −69.87

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At York 3.2% vs 12.4% · n=95

At Ascot 3.2% vs 12.4% · n=93

In Class 2 6% vs 12.4% · n=580

At Epsom 3.4% vs 12.4% · n=59

At Chelmsford (AW) 18.7% vs 12.4% · n=214

At Nottingham 5.6% vs 12.4% · n=54

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,625 225 13.8% −146.58

Good 952 110 11.6% −330.61

Good to Firm 891 107 12% −181.24

Good to Soft 367 40 10.9% −135.44

Soft 295 26 8.8% −90.73

Heavy 69 10 14.5% −20.00

Firm 13 3 23.1% +3.23

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 365 44 12.1% −107.81

Newcastle (AW) 319 48 15% +39.87

Kempton (AW) 283 32 11.3% −72.52

Southwell (AW) 238 33 13.9% −17.15

Chelmsford (AW) 214 40 18.7% +13.01

Lingfield (AW) 202 28 13.9% +2.02

Hamilton 174 22 12.6% −28.84

Goodwood 158 16 10.1% −53.82

Musselburgh 157 24 15.3% −15.86

Beverley 156 24 15.4% −8.00

Newmarket 136 12 8.8% −10.67

Newmarket 131 16 12.2% +1.65

Ayr 123 19 15.4% −1.67

Doncaster 113 10 8.8% −45.84

Chester 112 16 14.3% −29.12

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,265 192 15.2% −87.24

Class 4 1,135 166 14.6% −90.43

Class 2 580 35 6% −313.85

Class 6 547 65 11.9% −168.17

Class 3 490 49 10% −163.81

Class 1 187 14 7.5% −69.87

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 514 157 30.5% 0.94 −107.20

2nd–3rd fav 1,180 209 17.7% 1.03 −132.00

4th–6th fav 1,573 121 7.7% 0.93 −356.17

7th+ in betting 944 34 3.6% 0.95 −306.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Artisan Dancer (FR)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 53 8 26 11 Jul 26

Urban Sprawl (GB)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 50 5 19 8 Oct 25

Sax Appeal (GB)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 49 10 15 21 Oct 26

Benacre (IRE)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 48 4 12 5 Nov 26

Ludo's Landing (IRE)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 44 6 14 11 Aug 26

Union Island (IRE) 42 8 13 7 Nov 26

Qitaal (GB)from K J Condon 41 3 11 16 Oct 26

Dreams Adozen (FR)from Charlie & Mark Johnston · then James Owen 41 5 18 28 Jun 25

Etretat (GB)then Andrew Hamilton 40 4 10 28 Apr 26

Dutch Decoy (GB)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 40 3 11 1 Nov 25

Mr Cool (IRE) 37 4 14 16 Oct 26

Wadacre Gomez (GB) 37 7 14 23 Sep 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 462 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 16 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 27 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Charlie & Mark Johnston (24); 33 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Gary & Josh Moore (2) and H D McGuigan (2); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

4 from 14

Only 14 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

13181512111611111410129

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJoe Fanning

23% of all rides
13.5% SR · A/E 1.01

RiderRWSR£1

Joe Fanning 958 129 13.5% −155.60

Jason Hart 413 55 13.3% −75.56

Franny Norton 321 38 11.8% −52.43

Billy Loughnane 207 24 11.6% −107.39

Jack Mitchell 184 25 13.6% −60.51

Callum Shepherd 182 22 12.1% −27.75

Andrew Mullen 151 12 7.9% −77.74

Connor Beasley 149 26 17.4% −10.59

Archie Young 140 22 15.7% +28.56

Oliver Stammers 136 15 11% −0.42

Richard Kingscote 88 7 8% −52.80

Daniel Muscutt 86 7 8.1% −43.80

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2023→

521

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£9.88m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 174 wins

The Gatekeeper (IRE) — Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) (Str) Ascot · Oct 2023 · Class 2

£103,080

Align The Stars (IRE) — JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) Newcastle (AW) · Jun 2026 · Class 2

£77,310

Timeforshowcasing (GB) — Horn & Company German 1000 Guineas (3yo Fillies) (Turf) Dusseldorf (GER) · May 2026 · Group 2

£60,870

Notable horses

Sax Appeal (GB) Artisan Dancer (FR) Union Island (IRE) Wadacre Gomez (GB) Ludo's Landing (IRE) Urban Sprawl (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 11.3% · 19–168

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,604 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Iffraaj (GB) 10.2% · 15–147

Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,998 runs since 2010 (1,093 horses).

Saxon Warrior (JPN) 15.4% · 22–143

Progeny have won 11.5% of 2,953 runs since 2022 (371 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15% from 966. Weakest on Heavy going: 5.6% from 142.

Australia (GB) 10.9% · 15–138

Progeny have won 11.2% of 5,683 runs since 2018 (569 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.

Study Of Man (IRE) 15.5% · 20–129

Progeny have won 14.6% of 1,188 runs since 2023 (149 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.4% from 129. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 9.6% from 251.

Masar (IRE) 16.8% · 18–107

Progeny have won 11.6% of 1,250 runs since 2023 (177 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.6% from 167. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 8% from 138. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8% from 224.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,212 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,212 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2023 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Doncaster Ghaiyya (GB)J: Oisin Murphy Virgin Bet November Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 12f · Good To Soft · 23 ran 21st 40/1

07 Nov 26 Doncaster Solarize (GB)J: William Buick Virgin Bet November Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 12f · Good To Soft · 23 ran 4th 11/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Union Island (IRE)J: Jack Callan All-Weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 16/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Beauty For Love (IRE)J: Sam James AWC Season 14 Has Begun Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 5 ran 3rd 9/4

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Benacre (IRE)J: Jason Hart AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 7/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Wild Orchid (GB)J: Callum Shepherd All-Weather Championship Is Back Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 7/2F

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Pole Star (GB)J: Toby Moore Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 13 ran 1st 6/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Young Clarissa (IRE)J: Hector Crouch AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 15/8

31 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Bowdens (FR)J: Rowan Scott All-weather Championship Is Back Nursery Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 16/1

31 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Carnival Of Light (GB)J: Oliver Stammers Prix Irish RiverClass 1 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 50/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Francophone (GB)J: Callum Shepherd German Group One Racecourses James Seymour Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 10f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 8th 12/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Viviana (GB)J: Sam James Aw Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 18/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Lady Caroline Lamb (GB)J: Jason Hart Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 5 ran 1st 85/40

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Evanesco (GB)J: Rowan Scott St Simon Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 12f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 5th 9/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Sanditon (IRE)J: Callum Shepherd AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 40/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Roos Racing Rocket (IRE)J: Jason Hart David Cole Memorial EBF Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Soft · 12 ran 1st 11/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Wadacre Icon (GB)J: Jason Hart Wear Your Poppy With Pride Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 10f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 7/2

26 Oct 26 Redcar Sweet Love (GB)J: Jason Hart Market Cross Jewellers Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Heavy · 14 ran 13th 20/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Sir Terry Hadley (GB)J: Jason Hart Ebf "double Trigger" Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 9f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 28/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Giant Dan Burn (GER)J: Oliver Stammers Ebf "double Trigger" Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 9f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 6 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 8 runs (won 1, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 6 runs (won 1, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 9 runs (won 1) · to 6 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Charlie Johnston's strike rate?: Charlie Johnston has won 521 of 4,212 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.4% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Charlie Johnston do best at?: Chelmsford (AW) by strike rate: 40 wins from 214 runners (18.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Charlie Johnston?: Joe Fanning, with 958 runners since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 129 (13.5%).
Is Charlie Johnston in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 14 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Charlie Johnston's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 4,177 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.