What is Declan Carroll's strike rate?

Declan Carroll has won 414 of 4,403 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.4% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Declan Carroll do best at?

Musselburgh by strike rate: 21 wins from 133 runners (15.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Declan Carroll?

Zak Wheatley, with 772 runners since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 75 (9.7%).

Is Declan Carroll in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Declan Carroll's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 4,380 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Declan Carroll

4,403 runners in the lifetime window · 344 individual horses

As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 5.1% of 217 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 30 Oct 2026.

Last runner 3 days ago 96% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

414–4,403

Wins / Runs

9.4%

Strike rate

n=4,403

1,180 (27%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=4,380 · 0.86 incl. margin

−696.02

£1 level stake

n=4,403 at SP · −15.8%

£3.63m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.7%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 230 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.01). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 12% (174 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 4,403 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Aug 24.6% when favourite Zak Wheatley: 9.7% from 772 Headgear returns: 11.5% Claiming riders: 9.7% Sends off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Musselburgh (15.8%, n=133) and Warwick (17.1%, n=35) — all clear of the yard's 9.4% baseline. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 4.8% (n=124, Fair A/E 0.65). Debutants are the standout value angle: 6.4% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.32 and +116.50 to a £1 stake over 187 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Zak Wheatley rides 18% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.7%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes at York (Aug 2025, £141,775). The stable star of the record: Save The Bees (GB) — 14 wins from 110 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.5%−0.9

n=527 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −39.70

New recruits · first run for the yard

8.2%−1.2

n=134 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −50.95

Debutants · first career start

6.4%−3.0

n=187 · A/E 1.32 · £1 +116.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.8%−4.6

n=124 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −94.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

11.5%+2.1

n=174 · A/E 1.40 · £1 −2.25

When favourite

24.6%

n=337 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −74.33

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.7%+0.3

n=2,044 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −230.12

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.7%−1.7

n=39 · A/E 1.32 · £1 −9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Ger O'Neill 16% vs 9.4% · n=181

With Daniel Tudhope 16% vs 9.4% · n=162

At Musselburgh 15.8% vs 9.4% · n=133

With Paul Hanagan 18.2% vs 9.4% · n=33

On last-time-out winners 14.3% vs 9.4% · n=413

At Warwick 17.1% vs 9.4% · n=35

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 4,230 403 9.5% −600.91

Hurdle 155 11 7.1% −77.11

Chase 11 0 0% −11.00

NH Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 1,141 99 8.7% −212.80

Good to Firm 962 81 8.4% −241.71

Standard (AW) 887 90 10.1% −84.39

Good to Soft 659 73 11.1% −11.63

Soft 606 57 9.4% −192.54

Heavy 131 13 9.9% +43.05

Firm 17 1 5.9% +4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 412 57 13.8% −23.30

Thirsk 404 38 9.4% −54.74

Beverley 298 24 8.1% −102.59

Redcar 296 29 9.8% +20.25

Wolverhampton (AW) 296 23 7.8% −24.92

Catterick 285 31 10.9% +46.30

Doncaster 246 16 6.5% −126.42

York 204 15 7.4% −61.50

Pontefract 203 13 6.4% +32.83

Nottingham 192 15 7.8% +1.05

Haydock 156 12 7.7% −59.50

Ayr 138 13 9.4% −63.28

Musselburgh 133 21 15.8% +18.78

Carlisle 133 16 12% −39.26

Chester 128 16 12.5% +11.33

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,525 146 9.6% −259.41

Class 6 1,335 145 10.9% −144.14

Class 4 1,014 87 8.6% −154.52

Class 3 306 23 7.5% −47.20

Class 2 162 9 5.6% −68.75

Class 1 40 3 7.5% −10.00

Class 7 9 0 0% −9.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 429 104 24.2% 0.96 −70.00

2nd–3rd fav 843 138 16.4% 1.07 −69.52

4th–6th fav 1,340 112 8.4% 1.04 −253.50

7th+ in betting 1,791 60 3.4% 0.93 −303.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 1,611 135 8.4% −293.76

Under 6f 1,053 121 11.5% +27.88

1m – 1m1f 708 61 8.6% −243.39

1m2f – 1m4f 675 65 9.6% −164.19

1m5f – 2m 273 28 10.3% +32.32

2m1f – 2m4f 71 4 5.6% −42.88

2m5f – 3m 12 0 0% −12.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 311 24 7.7% −94.39

2009 172 11 6.4% −0.50

2010 257 32 12.5% −16.75

2011 331 25 7.6% −114.18

2012 236 22 9.3% +20.83

2013 248 26 10.5% +46.75

2014 117 5 4.3% −76.50

2015 222 17 7.7% −2.75

2016 223 25 11.2% +96.88

2017 247 33 13.4% −20.53

2018 276 34 12.3% −5.97

2019 264 28 10.6% −71.92

2020 196 13 6.6% −102.72

2021 181 14 7.7% −67.33

2022 218 26 11.9% +15.54

2023 216 21 9.7% −95.97

2024 275 19 6.9% −155.67

2025 217 22 10.1% +10.78

2026 196 17 8.7% −61.62

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 3,523 342 9.7% −537.40

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

11-13 runners 1,558 130 8.3% −150.42

8-10 runners 1,447 155 10.7% −198.93

14-16 runners 623 38 6.1% −152.88

5-7 runners 475 73 15.4% −113.16

17+ runners 282 12 4.3% −87.50

2-4 runners 18 6 33.3% +6.87

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Save The Bees (GB)from Ian McInnes 110 14 39 16 Nov 18

Whozthecat (IRE) 107 10 27 6 Dec 16

Green Park (IRE)from Richard Fahey 94 8 30 29 Oct 13

Musharrif (GB)from Sir Michael Stoute · then James McAuley 67 8 21 22 Nov 20

Bold Spirit (GB)from Richard Hannon 64 7 17 13 Jan 19

Monsieur Jimmy (GB)then Brian Ellison 62 6 14 8 Jun 18

Hits Only Jude (IRE)from P A Blockley 58 4 19 3 Jun 12

Illustrious Prince (IRE)from Jeremy Noseda · then Julie Camacho 55 6 16 18 Nov 13

Asmund (IRE)from K R Burke 49 4 14 1 Nov 24

Mysterial (GB)from Ruth Carr · then Sharon Watt 48 8 14 19 Sep 17

Motahassen (IRE)from D K Weld 47 6 11 16 Feb 22

Stoneboat Bill (GB)then John C McConnell 46 2 16 8 Feb 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 344 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 22 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 27 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from D K Weld (3) and Jeremy Noseda (3); 33 had their first archived run for this yard.

19 have since run for another yard, most often for David O'Meara (2); 41 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 10

Only 10 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

51388810111197139

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderZak Wheatley

18% of all rides
9.7% SR · A/E 1.06

RiderRWSR£1

Zak Wheatley 772 75 9.7% −153.10

Neil Farley 585 50 8.5% −131.97

David Nolan 474 44 9.3% −79.26

Harrison Shaw 346 30 8.7% −109.79

Jason Hart 183 21 11.5% +60.82

Ger O'Neill 181 29 16% +42.55

Daniel Tudhope 162 26 16% +18.46

Phil Dennis 153 19 12.4% +40.75

David Allan 138 17 12.3% +28.03

Tom Eaves 108 9 8.3% −17.83

Luke Leadbitter 107 8 7.5% −48.00

Kevin Stott 55 5 9.1% −22.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

487

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.98m

Prize money

2018

Best season · 34 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Lifeplan (IRE) — Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Tom Lacy) York · Aug 2025 · Group 2

£141,775

Whozthecat (IRE) — Boylesports.com Rockingham Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · Jul 2013

£60,000

Emiyn (FR) — Deepbridge Watergate Cup Handicap Chester · Sep 2022 · Class 2

£51,025

Notable horses

Save The Bees (GB) Whozthecat (IRE) Birkside (GB) Green Park (IRE) Musharrif (GB) Mysterial (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 11.1% · 30–270

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,844 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Royal Applause (GB) 12.7% · 20–158

Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.

One Cool Cat (USA) 9.1% · 11–121

Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,592 runs since 2008 (254 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.4% from 605.

Acclamation (GB) 7.4% · 7–94

Progeny have won 10% of 19,697 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 194.

Shinko Forest (IRE) 8.5% · 8–94

Progeny have won 9.5% of 1,059 runs since 2008 (80 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.1% from 255. Weakest on Good going: 5.5% from 253.

Arcano (IRE) 13.2% · 12–91

Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,647 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.8% from 147.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,254 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,254 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 January 2005 to 27 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Oct 26 Catterick Kasgani (IRE)J: Paul Mulrennan Jumps Season Starts 20th November Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 9/2

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Yesnia (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 25/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Hickton (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Join The Midnite Movement Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 14/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Dr Rio (FR)J: Zak Wheatley Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Selling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 10/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Willolarupi (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 22/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Alessia Fernanda (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd January 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 40/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Changeofmind (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Heavy · 9 ran 5th 11/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Paphos (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Happy 80th Birthday William 'bill' Carr Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Soft · 6 ran 5th 20/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Youngheartsrunfree (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 40/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Avatar Jet (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 9/2

16 Oct 26 Haydock Sujet (GB)J: Zak Wheatley M6Toll Road To Victory Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 10th 80/1

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Solid Bond (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 5/1

12 Oct 26 Musselburgh Rwenearlytheredad (GB)J: Zak Wheatley Musselburgh Members Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 6th 4/1

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Bondi (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Gents Night Saturday 24th October Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 18/1

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Willolarupi (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Pepsi Max Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 100/30

07 Oct 26 Nottingham Kasgani (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Watch Racing TV Now Handicap Stakes (Div I) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 16/1

06 Oct 26 Leicester Ma Fille De Reve (GB)J: Zak Wheatley Mick & Linda New Inn Enderby Cheers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 8th 4/1F

06 Oct 26 Leicester Paphos (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Alan & Sarah #laughterloft Legends Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 3rd 10/1

05 Oct 26 Pontefract Solid Bond (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Constant Security Services Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 10th 15/2

03 Oct 26 Redcar Alessia Fernanda (IRE)J: Cian Horgan Prohibition Bar Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 5th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 24 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Declan Carroll's strike rate?: Declan Carroll has won 414 of 4,403 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.4% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Declan Carroll do best at?: Musselburgh by strike rate: 21 wins from 133 runners (15.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Declan Carroll?: Zak Wheatley, with 772 runners since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 75 (9.7%).
Is Declan Carroll in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Declan Carroll's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 4,380 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.