What is Heather Main's strike rate?

Heather Main has won 207 of 2,038 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.2% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Heather Main do best at?

Lingfield by strike rate: 8 wins from 46 runners (17.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Heather Main?

Jack Mitchell, with 103 runners since 2008 — 5% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (15.5%).

Is Heather Main in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Heather Main's Fair A/E?

1.09, from 2,029 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Heather Main

2,038 runners in the lifetime window · 163 individual horses

As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 2 days ago 94% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

207–2,038

Wins / Runs

10.2%

Strike rate

n=2,038

549 (27%)

Placed

1.09

Fair A/E

n=2,029 · 0.94 incl. margin

+37.60

£1 level stake

n=2,038 at SP · +1.8%

£2.23m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 110 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.09).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,038 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 31.9% when favourite Jack Mitchell: 15.5% from 103 Sends off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

Debutants struggle at 1.5% (n=135, Fair A/E 0.56). Jack Mitchell rides 5% of the entries and beats the yard's average (15.5% vs 10.2%, A/E 1.31) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (20.2%, n=89). The stable star of the record: Island Brave (IRE) — 11 wins from 56 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

7.2%−3.0

n=360 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −61.62

New recruits · first run for the yard

3.6%−6.6

n=28 · A/E 0.67 · £1 +6.00

Debutants · first career start

1.5%−8.7

n=135 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −106.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

3.3%−6.9

n=91 · A/E 0.47 · £1 −68.67

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.9%−0.3

n=71 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −28.08

When favourite

31.9%

n=163 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −1.89

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.9%−0.3

n=538 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −45.55

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.2

n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 20.2% vs 10.2% · n=89

With debutants 1.5% vs 10.2% · n=135

With Billy Loughnane 21.1% vs 10.2% · n=38

With Ellie MacKenzie 17.9% vs 10.2% · n=67

With P J McDonald 18.9% vs 10.2% · n=37

With first-time headgear 3.3% vs 10.2% · n=91

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,907 194 10.2% +5.22

Chase 63 11 17.5% −3.62

Hurdle 38 1 2.6% +63.00

NH Flat 30 1 3.3% −27.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 880 99 11.3% −70.62

Good 383 35 9.1% +208.22

Good to Firm 287 29 10.1% +4.29

Good to Soft 217 13 6% −38.12

Soft 203 24 11.8% −57.30

Heavy 54 5 9.3% −22.37

Firm 14 2 14.3% +13.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 330 33 10% −27.64

Wolverhampton (AW) 221 33 14.9% +38.17

Lingfield 162 15 9.3% −48.42

Newbury 156 12 7.7% +212.50

Windsor 113 7 6.2% +4.83

Newcastle (AW) 91 13 14.3% +19.08

Goodwood 71 6 8.5% −33.25

Chepstow 64 10 15.6% −6.55

Ascot 58 5 8.6% +44.50

Sandown 52 6 11.5% +15.50

Newmarket 50 6 12% +12.50

Bath 50 3 6% −19.00

Salisbury 48 3 6.3% −21.00

Lingfield 46 8 17.4% +106.00

Leicester 45 5 11.1% −21.62

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 762 78 10.2% +5.47

Class 4 556 48 8.6% +146.71

Class 6 358 55 15.4% +19.84

Class 3 174 13 7.5% −82.00

Class 2 157 13 8.3% −21.42

Class 1 18 0 0% −18.00

Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 187 56 29.9% 1.07 −7.14

2nd–3rd fav 385 69 17.9% 1.16 −15.76

4th–6th fav 650 56 8.6% 1.08 −8.50

7th+ in betting 816 26 3.2% 1.03 +69.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 689 79 11.5% +153.72

1m – 1m1f 541 57 10.5% +82.36

1m2f – 1m4f 423 36 8.5% −161.02

1m5f – 2m 236 20 8.5% +25.08

Under 6f 80 8 10% −36.17

2m1f – 2m4f 55 5 9.1% −31.87

2m5f – 3m 13 2 15.4% +6.50

Over 3m 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2009 24 0 0% −24.00

2010 57 4 7% −33.95

2011 106 11 10.4% +73.06

2012 96 5 5.2% −65.75

2013 82 7 8.5% +18.62

2014 42 3 7.1% −20.00

2015 37 3 8.1% −3.50

2016 55 4 7.3% +3.50

2017 89 13 14.6% +49.75

2018 160 21 13.1% −0.10

2019 153 17 11.1% −0.25

2020 158 21 13.3% +19.46

2021 172 16 9.3% +36.66

2022 189 22 11.6% −30.96

2023 173 18 10.4% +109.21

2024 158 15 9.5% −21.51

2025 167 23 13.8% −16.14

2026 120 4 3.3% −56.50

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,513 169 11.2% −176.35

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 699 75 10.7% +134.88

11-13 runners 672 55 8.2% −226.91

5-7 runners 333 49 14.7% −31.91

14-16 runners 226 19 8.4% +104.00

17+ runners 77 4 5.2% +75.00

2-4 runners 31 5 16.1% −17.46

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mostawaa (GB) 62 7 23 21 Jan 26

Mister Bluebird (GB) 61 8 26 23 Sep 26

Marshal Dan (IRE) 57 10 25 20 Dec 23

Island Brave (IRE)from J S Moore 56 11 16 29 Jun 24

English Spirit (GB) 47 5 17 30 May 25

Hector's Chance (GB) 43 4 17 6 Oct 15

Al Kout (GB) 41 2 13 2 Aug 22

Numitor (GB) 35 9 14 4 May 26

Captain Haddock (IRE)from Harry Dunlop 35 2 11 21 Oct 24

Childesplay (GB) 33 4 16 8 Aug 17

Island Bandit (IRE) 32 6 9 23 Jun 25

Rake's Progress (GB) 31 5 9 10 Sep 20

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 163 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 13 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive; 50 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard; 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 8

Only 8 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

131712781010111010139

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJack Mitchell

5% of all rides
15.5% SR · A/E 1.31

RiderRWSR£1

Jack Mitchell 103 16 15.5% +159.70

Luke Morris 101 12 11.9% −4.59

David Egan 91 11 12.1% −18.76

Ellie MacKenzie 67 12 17.9% +75.63

Gina Mangan 52 6 11.5% +28.33

Hollie Doyle 46 7 15.2% +5.50

Jason Watson 46 2 4.3% −27.00

Martin Dwyer 46 6 13% +20.58

Ray Dawson 45 7 15.6% +4.88

Joshua Bryan 42 6 14.3% +3.25

Cieren Fallon 42 7 16.7% −4.43

Eddie Ahern 42 7 16.7% +6.98

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

207

Archived wins

£2.23m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 23 wins

Numitor (GB) — Unibet Middle Distance Veterans' Handicap Chase Finale Haydock · Mar 2024 · Class 2

£52,030

Island Brave (IRE) — Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap Haydock · Sep 2022 · Class 2

£51,540

Zoulu Chief (GB) — Sky Bet Nursery York · Aug 2023 · Class 2

£51,540

Notable horses

Island Brave (IRE) Marshal Dan (IRE) Numitor (GB) Mister Bluebird (GB) Mostawaa (GB) Song of The Isles (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Outstrip (GB) 14.7% · 17–116

Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,283 runs since 2008 (240 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 634. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 264.

Poet's Voice (GB) 11.7% · 13–111

Progeny have won 10% of 6,043 runs since 2008 (384 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 264. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 494. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.3% from 142.

Byron (GB) 11.2% · 11–98

Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,248 runs since 2008 (225 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.7% from 172.

Make Believe (GB) 8.3% · 6–72

Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,612 runs since 2008 (298 horses).

Iffraaj (GB) 7% · 5–71

Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,974 runs since 2008 (1,092 horses).

Lawman (FR) 16.9% · 10–59

Progeny have won 8.9% of 9,423 runs since 2008 (730 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,038 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,038 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 April 2009 to 28 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Cougar Force (GB)J: Jason Watson Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 5th 50/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Prodigal Son (GB)J: Hector Crouch Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 10/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Zoulu Warrior (IRE)J: George Wood AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 11/4F

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Clink (IRE)J: David Egan Unibet More Extra Place Races EBF Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 9th 33/1

26 Oct 26 Leicester Woolisle (GB)J: Harry Davies Jumping's Back At Leicester Tuesday 17th November Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 7 ran 7th 16/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Eazy On The Eye (GB)J: Billy Loughnane CopyBet Proudly Backs UK Horse Racing Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Soft · 12 ran 2nd 3/1J

19 Oct 26 Bath Squiffy (IRE)J: Sean Levey Elite Racing Club Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 5th 16/1

19 Oct 26 Bath Paraone (GB)J: Miss Amy Milburn Sw Hire Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 17f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 9th 80/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Woolisle (GB)J: Hector Crouch Shape Engineering Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 8th 14/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Ortenzian Twilight (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Juddmonte EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 8th 100/1

11 Oct 26 Goodwood Angel Childe (GB)J: Jack Dace Virgin Bet / British Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 125/1

02 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Ash Wednesday (GB)J: Finley Marsh Appleby Mall Accountants Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 20/1

02 Oct 26 Ascot Zoulu Chief (GB)J: Mr Henry Main Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Male Amateur Riders)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 18th 12/1

30 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Squiffy (IRE)J: Finley Marsh Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 6th 16/1

30 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Montgomery Bell (IRE)J: Finley Marsh Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Maiden Stakes (Div II) (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 10th 300/1

27 Sep 26 Epsom Eazy On The Eye (GB)J: George Wood Betfred 'Follow Us On X' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 1st 7/2J

27 Sep 26 Epsom Paraone (GB)J: George Wood Hunt Family Fund Novice Stakes (Sponsored By Betfred) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 10f · Good · 6 ran 5th 500/1

25 Sep 26 Newmarket Clink (IRE)J: Finley Marsh Betway Bet The Responsible Way British Ebf "confined" Maiden Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only Which Have Run No More Than Twice)Class 3 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 13th 125/1

25 Sep 26 Haydock Ortenzian Twilight (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Pmj Capital Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 100/1

24 Sep 26 Newmarket Epistle (GB)J: George Wood Plantation Stud British EBF Maiden Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only)Class 3 · 8f · Good · 7 ran 5th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 16 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 27 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Heather Main's strike rate?: Heather Main has won 207 of 2,038 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.2% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Heather Main do best at?: Lingfield by strike rate: 8 wins from 46 runners (17.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Heather Main?: Jack Mitchell, with 103 runners since 2008 — 5% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (15.5%).
Is Heather Main in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Heather Main's Fair A/E?: 1.09, from 2,029 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.