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Trainer profile

Hugh Burns

202 runners in the lifetime window · 53 individual horses
As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 38 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
5–202
Wins / Runs
2.5%
Strike rate
n=202
21 (10%)
Placed
0.64
Fair A/E
n=202 · 0.55 incl. margin
−150.00
£1 level stake
n=202 at SP · −74.3%
£68,223
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.64).

Deterministic profile computed from 202 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 9 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 2.9%
The read

The record is strongest at Hexham (10%, n=30), clear of the yard's 2.5% baseline. The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (6.4%, n=47). The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.00 across 55 runners (0% strike, −55.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.9%+0.4
n=68 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −41.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.5
n=43 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −43.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.5
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.5
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.5
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.1%−1.4
n=89 · A/E 0.39 · £1 −83.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Hexham 10% vs 2.5% · n=30
Over 2m5f – 3m 6.4% vs 2.5% · n=47
In Chase races 5.1% vs 2.5% · n=59
Off a 61-180-day break 5.3% vs 2.5% · n=38
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 2.5% · n=55
At Sedgefield 0% vs 2.5% · n=46
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 57.3% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 130 2 1.5% −111.00
Chase 59 3 5.1% −26.00
NH Flat 13 0 0% −13.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 114 2 1.8% −92.50
Good to Soft 42 2 4.8% −21.00
Soft 30 0 0% −30.00
Good to Firm 10 1 10% −0.50
Heavy 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Sedgefield 46 0 0% −46.00
Hexham 30 3 10% +3.00
Perth 27 1 3.7% −17.50
Musselburgh 22 0 0% −22.00
Kelso 22 1 4.5% −12.50
Market Rasen 12 0 0% −12.00
Catterick 11 0 0% −11.00
Newcastle 10 0 0% −10.00
Southwell 8 0 0% −8.00
Cartmel 6 0 0% −6.00
Carlisle 5 0 0% −5.00
Uttoxeter 1 0 0% −1.00
Doncaster 1 0 0% −1.00
Ayr 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 120 4 3.3% −77.50
Class 4 74 1 1.4% −64.50
Class 6 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 3 0 0% 0.00 −3.00
2nd–3rd fav 14 1 7.1% 0.52 −8.00
4th–6th fav 45 4 8.9% 1.66 +1.00
7th+ in betting 140 0 0% 0.00 −140.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
70.9% completed · 189 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 59 74.6% 1 1 13 0 0
Hurdle 130 69.2% 4 2 34 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Henry Brown (IRE)from Noel Meade 21 1 7 26 Jan 25
Ballydangan (IRE)from Dan Skelton 12 2 5 2 Oct 26
Country Delights (IRE) 12 0 1 18 Aug 19
Longstone Cowboy (IRE) 10 0 2 16 Oct 25
Le Fou's Keep (IRE)from S Slevin 10 0 1 16 Feb 25
Marbeth (IRE)from A Oliver 10 0 0 11 May 18
Slaney Craiglegacy (IRE)from Liz Doyle 9 1 1 29 Aug 19
Garth Mountain (GB)from Tim Vaughan 9 0 0 31 Oct 13
Far Away West (IRE)from Dan Skelton 7 0 0 14 Sep 26
Oxalido (FR)from Miss Patricia Monahan 6 1 2 27 Nov 15
Special Rate (IRE)from Lizzie Quinlan 5 0 1 20 Apr 26
Animore (GB)from Iain Jardine 5 0 0 4 Oct 24
All 53 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 53 horses listed, 42 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Liam Lennon (4) and A Oliver (3); 11 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard, most often for Lizzie Quinlan (2); 46 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0000050017500
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderLorcan Murtagh
18% of all rides
0% SR · A/E 0.00
RiderRWSR£1
Lorcan Murtagh 37 0 0% −37.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→
5
Archived wins
£68,223
Prize money
2025
Best season · 2 wins
Ballydangan (IRE) — Lee 'Bazza' Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Chase Hexham · Oct 2025 · Class 5
£5,557
Ballydangan (IRE) — Cleansweep Handicap Chase Hexham · Jun 2025 · Class 5
£5,255
Henry Brown (IRE) — At The Races App Expert Tips Handicap Chase Hexham · Sep 2022 · Class 5
£4,085
Notable horses
Ballydangan (IRE) Henry Brown (IRE) Slaney Craiglegacy (IRE) Oxalido (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Mahler (GB) 3% · 1–33
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,890 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Yeats (IRE) 0% · 0–17
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,850 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.
Saddler Maker (IRE) 16.7% · 2–12
Progeny have won 16.8% of 2,174 runs since 2010 (181 horses). Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 11.3% from 222.
Craigsteel (GB) 9.1% · 1–11
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,393 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 291. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.9% from 763.
Dark Angel (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,953 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Frozen Power (IRE) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,887 runs since 2015 (132 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 202 · newest first

The latest 50 of 202 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 August 2012 to 2 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
02 Oct 26 Hexham Ballydangan (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Lee "Bazza" Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 7th 12/1
14 Sep 26 Sedgefield Far Away West (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17f · Good · 10 ran 5th 125/1
15 Aug 26 Perth Ballydangan (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Brooks Macdonald Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 7th 25/1
20 Apr 26 Kelso Special Rate (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Royal Caledonian Hunt Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 11/2
11 Apr 26 Newcastle Special Rate (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Acorn Catering Equipment Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 9/4J
19 Mar 26 Sedgefield Ballydangan (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Fairlight Studios Cafe At Sedgefield Racecourse Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 11 ran PU 40/1
14 Mar 26 Newcastle Callisto's King (IRE)J: Charlie Maggs Smirnoff At The Apartment Grand Wedding Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran PU 100/1
19 Feb 26 Sedgefield Ballydangan (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Seaside Travel Spectacular Shoreline Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 26.5f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 12/1
15 Feb 26 Musselburgh Special Rate (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Famous Five Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23.5f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 4/1
31 Jan 26 Musselburgh Special Rate (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 6/1
28 Dec 25 Catterick Ballydangan (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Sky Bet Club Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25f · Good · 14 ran PU 33/1
22 Dec 25 Musselburgh Special Rate (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 13/2
16 Oct 25 Carlisle Longstone Cowboy (IRE)J: Sean Quinlan JJ Group Contracting Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good · 15 ran 11th 18/1
11 Oct 25 Hexham Ballydangan (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Hitz Horizons Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 4th 9/2
03 Oct 25 Hexham Ballydangan (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Lee 'Bazza' Jenkinson Memorial Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 1st 14/1
03 Oct 25 Hexham Longstone Cowboy (IRE)J: Charlie Maggs Martin Bowler Memorial Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 13/2
08 Sep 25 Perth Longstone Cowboy (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Auto Services Peugeot & Citroen Commercials Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 9th 40/1
03 Jul 25 Perth Ballydangan (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Horizon Parking UK's Leading Parking Company Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 8/1
14 Jun 25 Hexham Ballydangan (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Cleansweep Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 5/1
07 Jun 25 Hexham Ballydangan (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Marrill Group Racing Ahead Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 3rd 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Hugh Burns's strike rate?
Hugh Burns has won 5 of 202 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.5% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Hugh Burns do best at?
Hexham by strike rate: 3 wins from 30 runners (10%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Hugh Burns's Fair A/E?
0.64, from 202 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 9 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).