What is Ismail Mohammed's strike rate?

Ismail Mohammed has won 212 of 1,664 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.7% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Ismail Mohammed do best at?

Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 14 wins from 69 runners (20.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Ismail Mohammed?

Thomas Brown, with 122 runners since 2008 — 7% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (21.3%).

What is Ismail Mohammed's Fair A/E?

1.14, from 1,652 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Ismail Mohammed

1,664 runners in the lifetime window · 237 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 154 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

212–1,664

Wins / Runs

12.7%

Strike rate

n=1,664

511 (31%)

Placed

1.14

Fair A/E

n=1,652 · 0.99 incl. margin

−154.86

£1 level stake

n=1,664 at SP · −9.3%

£2.37m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

20.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 90 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.14). With a claiming rider up the record reads 15% (406 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,664 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr Fresh horses: 13% 44.8% when favourite Thomas Brown: 21.3% from 122 Claiming riders: 15% Sends off the favourite in 12% of races

The read

Debutants struggle at 4.9% (n=204, Fair A/E 0.86). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 15% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.37 and +48.01 to a £1 stake over 406 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet a horse in first-time headgear: 5.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.58 and −88.99 to a £1 stake over 118 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Thomas Brown rides 7% of the entries and beats the yard's average (21.3% vs 12.7%, A/E 1.93) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (26.8%, n=41). 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the 57th John Smith's Cup at York (Jul 2016, £124,500). The stable star of the record: Good Effort (IRE) — 9 wins from 28 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

13%+0.3

n=246 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +18.42

New recruits · first run for the yard

6.1%−6.6

n=33 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −23.00

Debutants · first career start

4.9%−7.8

n=204 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −15.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

5.1%−7.6

n=118 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −88.99

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

12.1%−0.6

n=33 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −0.75

When favourite

44.8%

n=192 · A/E 1.46 · £1 +58.98

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

15%+2.3

n=406 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +48.01

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.3%−6.4

n=79 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −55.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 23% vs 12.7% · n=200

Off a 0-7-day break 26.8% vs 12.7% · n=41

With C&D winners 22% vs 12.7% · n=118

With debutants 4.9% vs 12.7% · n=204

With Thomas Brown 21.3% vs 12.7% · n=122

With first-time headgear 5.1% vs 12.7% · n=118

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,660 212 12.8% −150.86

NH Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 668 105 15.7% −18.96

Good to Firm 368 50 13.6% −60.95

Good 313 28 8.9% +49.16

Good to Soft 147 13 8.8% −64.32

Soft 132 11 8.3% −58.66

Heavy 19 3 15.8% +4.25

Firm 17 2 11.8% −5.38

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 171 30 17.5% +12.11

Kempton (AW) 164 18 11% −7.30

Chelmsford (AW) 111 15 13.5% +12.68

Lingfield (AW) 105 17 16.2% −33.50

Yarmouth 97 10 10.3% −31.61

Nottingham 76 5 6.6% −39.50

Newcastle (AW) 69 14 20.3% +5.50

Newmarket 66 6 9.1% −35.62

Haydock 62 8 12.9% −13.87

Doncaster 57 8 14% +15.66

Newmarket 53 6 11.3% +23.50

Windsor 50 6 12% −24.26

Leicester 49 7 14.3% +2.73

Southwell (AW) 46 9 19.6% −14.65

Newbury 44 4 9.1% −25.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 692 69 10% −108.54

Class 4 343 46 13.4% −6.26

Class 6 338 60 17.8% +1.58

Class 2 113 18 15.9% +34.33

Class 3 93 12 12.9% −23.17

Class 1 79 5 6.3% −55.00

Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 218 89 40.8% 1.39 +50.31

2nd–3rd fav 384 67 17.4% 1.02 −33.67

4th–6th fav 544 41 7.5% 1.00 −126.50

7th+ in betting 518 15 2.9% 0.95 −45.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Educate (GB) 40 7 16 17 Dec 16

Amazour (IRE) 32 7 12 26 Oct 18

Good Effort (IRE) 28 9 14 12 May 22

Magical Mile (IRE) 27 4 11 29 Aug 23

Mubtadi (GB)from David Simcock 25 7 9 24 Jun 15

Nibras Shadow (IRE) 22 2 8 20 Nov 21

Red Warrior (IRE) 22 1 8 29 Sep 15

Ana Shababiya (IRE) 22 3 7 7 Jan 15

Nibras Again (GB)then Paul Midgley 20 2 7 3 Oct 18

Mutamid (GB) 20 2 10 21 Jul 17

Frostmagic (IRE) 19 3 8 12 May 26

Must Believe (GB)then George Baker 18 2 8 4 Feb 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 237 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 55 had their first archived run for this yard.

21 have since run for another yard; 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

28311615101111181281013

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderThomas Brown

7% of all rides
21.3% SR · A/E 1.93

RiderRWSR£1

Thomas Brown 122 26 21.3% +74.32

Sean Levey 87 13 14.9% +18.33

Ray Dawson 81 14 17.3% +32.33

Tom Queally 76 9 11.8% −2.36

Martin Harley 66 10 15.2% −27.17

Silvestre De Sousa 65 10 15.4% −34.64

Benoit De La Sayette 55 10 18.2% +42.33

Royston Ffrench 47 2 4.3% −36.90

Tom Marquand 44 3 6.8% −30.90

Tommie Jakes 43 5 11.6% +18.75

Paddy Bradley 39 5 12.8% −0.75

Stevie Donohoe 37 1 2.7% −31.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→

212

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.37m

Prize money

2016

Best season · 23 wins

Educate (GB) — 57th John Smith's Cup (Heritage Handicap) York · Jul 2016 · Class 2

£124,500

Educate (GB) — Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Newmarket · Sep 2013 · Class 2

£99,600

Zain Claudette (IRE) — Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) York · Aug 2021 · Group 2

£85,065

Notable horses

Good Effort (IRE) Educate (GB) Amazour (IRE) Mubtadi (GB) Rhombus (IRE) Therthaar (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Iffraaj (GB) 13.2% · 18–136

Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,985 runs since 2010 (1,092 horses).

Universal (IRE) 12.5% · 11–88

Progeny have won 11% of 975 runs since 2017 (89 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.3% from 137. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.9% from 189.

Shamardal (USA) 22.7% · 17–75

Progeny have won 14.8% of 10,413 runs since 2009 (1,008 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11.7% from 1,288. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 475.

Echo Of Light (GB) 16.3% · 8–49

Progeny have won 9.6% of 1,633 runs since 2011 (126 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.6% from 373. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 4.4% from 160.

Poet's Voice (GB) 14% · 6–43

Progeny have won 10% of 6,045 runs since 2015 (384 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 264. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 494. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.3% from 142.

No Nay Never (USA) 14.3% · 6–42

Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,358 runs since 2018 (708 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.1% from 618. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.6% from 185.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,664 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,664 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 21 May 2012 to 2 June 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Jun 26 Pontefract Desert Phantom (GB)J: Mason Paetel HBC Construction Ltd Supports The YCC EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good · 7 ran 6th 14/1

01 Jun 26 Windsor Good Fighter (GB)J: Saffie Osborne Pourou Garhigh Anniversary EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 5f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 7th 10/1

01 Jun 26 Newbury Desert Sands (IRE)J: Kieran Shoemark Get 100-1 On England At BetVictor EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6.5f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 6th 16/1

31 May 26 Nottingham Big Bad Storm (GB)J: Christian Howarth Bear's Big Birthday EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 11th 14/1

30 May 26 Lingfield Blue Sign (GB)J: Mason Paetel APC Electrical EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th 16/1

28 May 26 Sandown Brave Hunter (GB)J: Oisin Murphy starsports.bet HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Good · 12 ran 7th 4/1

27 May 26 Kempton (AW) Lord Britain (GB)J: Mason Paetel Unibet Supports Safer Gambling HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 1st 4/1

27 May 26 Kempton (AW) Khaleejy (IRE)J: Kyle McHugh Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 4th 14/1

23 May 26 Goodwood Beautiful Effort (GB)J: Benoit De La Sayette Elston Consulting EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 6f · Good · 9 ran 9th 7/1

22 May 26 Goodwood Magic Effort (GB)J: Mason Paetel British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Good · 8 ran 4th 7/2

13 May 26 York Minhad (GB)J: Kyle McHugh Stuey Weston & Friends Getting Out Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 17 ran 5th 13/2

12 May 26 Lingfield (AW) Frostmagic (IRE)J: Mason Paetel Follow AtTheRaces On X HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 17/2

11 May 26 Windsor Brave Hunter (GB)J: Silvestre De Sousa Rendells Are Hammers HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 2nd 17/2

08 May 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Al Amirah (GB)J: Benoit De La Sayette Race And Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 7 ran 5th 25/1

07 May 26 Southwell (AW) Jumeirah Sands (GB)J: Mason Paetel Follow AtTheRaces On X Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 6 ran 1st 11/10F

02 May 26 Newmarket Lord Britain (GB)J: Benoit De La Sayette Betfred 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 11th 150/1

01 May 26 Newcastle (AW) Khaleejy (IRE)J: Kyle McHugh Roflow Specialist Ventilation & Dehumidification Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 20/1

23 Apr 26 Beverley Frostmagic (IRE)J: Tom Marquand Alan McGuinness And Robin Lunness Memorial HandicapClass 4 · 7.5f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 3rd 10/3

20 Apr 26 Lingfield (AW) Scarlet Sunset (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Joan Butcher 90th Birthday Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 6 ran 6th 9/4J

18 Apr 26 Thirsk Minhad (GB)J: Kyle McHugh Happy 21st Birthday Lily Watkinson Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 12 ran 1st 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Ismail Mohammed's strike rate?: Ismail Mohammed has won 212 of 1,664 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.7% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ismail Mohammed do best at?: Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 14 wins from 69 runners (20.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Ismail Mohammed?: Thomas Brown, with 122 runners since 2008 — 7% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (21.3%).
What is Ismail Mohammed's Fair A/E?: 1.14, from 1,652 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.