What is Joseph Patrick O'Brien's strike rate?

Joseph Patrick O'Brien has won 1,662 of 11,807 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Joseph Patrick O'Brien do best at?

Roscommon by strike rate: 57 wins from 294 runners (19.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Joseph Patrick O'Brien?

Dylan Browne McMonagle, with 1,683 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 318 (18.9%).

Is Joseph Patrick O'Brien in form?

In the last 14 days: 34 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 5.9%. That is below the baseline of 14.1% since 2008.

What is Joseph Patrick O'Brien's Fair A/E?

1.05, from 11,798 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Joseph Patrick O'Brien

11,807 runners in the lifetime window · 1,701 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 7.7% of 1,245 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 6 Nov 2026.

Runners today

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

1,662–11,807

Wins / Runs

14.1%

Strike rate

n=11,807

4,261 (36%)

Placed

1.05

Fair A/E

n=11,798 · 0.86 incl. margin

−2,326.22

£1 level stake

n=11,807 at SP · −19.7%

£52.1m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

16.7%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 620 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.05). New recruits from other yards win at 16% first time out (357 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 2 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 11,807 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 37.3% when favourite Dylan Browne McMonagle: 18.9% from 1,683 New recruits: 16.2% Sends off the favourite in 16% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Downpatrick (28%, n=50) and Bellewstown (22.4%, n=192) — all clear of the yard's 14.1% baseline. It is weakest at Ascot (6.1% over 163 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 10% (n=281, Fair A/E 0.95). New recruits from other stables on their first run are the standout value angle: 16.2% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.17 and +36.23 to a £1 stake over 357 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 2 from 34 runners in the last 14 days (5.9%, 8.2pts below the 14.1% baseline). Dylan Browne McMonagle rides 14% of the entries and edges the yard's average (18.9% vs 14.1%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in NH Flat races (23%, n=200). 268 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby at Curragh (Jun 2018, £855,000). The stable star of the record: Home By The Lee (IRE) — 13 wins from 37 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

14.1%+0.0

n=2,116 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −262.23

New recruits · first run for the yard

16.2%+2.1

n=357 · A/E 1.17 · £1 +36.23

Debutants · first career start

10.2%−3.9

n=1,344 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −258.51

First-time headgear · true-first definition

11.3%−2.8

n=839 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −276.93

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10%−4.1

n=281 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −107.21

When favourite

37.3%

n=1,854 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −85.55

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

13.6%−0.5

n=2,604 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −282.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10.3%−3.8

n=2,590 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −510.02

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Gary Halpin 1.1% vs 14.1% · n=87

At Downpatrick 28% vs 14.1% · n=50

In NH Flat races 23% vs 14.1% · n=200

With Mr T Hamilton 23% vs 14.1% · n=178

At Bellewstown 22.4% vs 14.1% · n=192

At Ascot 6.1% vs 14.1% · n=163

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 8,593 1193 13.9% −1,667.29

Hurdle 2,061 303 14.7% −411.54

Chase 953 120 12.6% −257.72

NH Flat 200 46 23% +10.33

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 3,632 527 14.5% −685.56

Soft 3,323 469 14.1% −432.53

Standard (AW) 1,709 250 14.6% −377.12

Heavy 1,250 162 13% −390.08

Good to Soft 1,175 168 14.3% −209.48

Good to Firm 716 85 11.9% −236.45

Firm 2 1 50% +5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 1,631 239 14.7% −338.01

Curragh 1,420 161 11.3% −263.95

Leopardstown 1,098 134 12.2% −131.88

Gowran Park 711 103 14.5% −157.51

Naas 666 82 12.3% −137.13

Galway 569 63 11.1% −220.11

Navan 512 61 11.9% −116.74

Cork 511 62 12.1% −142.54

Fairyhouse 500 76 15.2% +13.55

Killarney 461 83 18% −38.70

Punchestown 393 51 13% −137.58

Limerick 368 66 17.9% −46.37

Roscommon 294 57 19.4% −57.17

Tipperary 292 34 11.6% −54.27

Listowel 281 49 17.4% −24.69

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 2,616 270 10.3% −516.52

Class 2 150 14 9.3% −27.25

Class 3 39 3 7.7% −28.20

Class 5 20 6 30% −4.91

Class 4 13 6 46.2% +6.80

Class 6 11 4 36.4% −1.67

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 2,134 738 34.6% 1.11 −184.84

2nd–3rd fav 3,384 559 16.5% 1.00 −671.08

4th–6th fav 3,523 284 8.1% 1.04 −545.30

7th+ in betting 2,766 81 2.9% 0.86 −925.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

San Andreas (IRE)from A P O'Brien 63 9 29 23 Apr 26

Prairie Dancer (IRE) 52 10 23 27 Dec 25

A Wave Of The Sea (IRE)then Ben Haslam 42 8 16 22 Oct 23

Busselton (FR)from D Cottin · then E Bolger 40 7 14 12 Dec 25

Grey Waters (IRE) 38 4 14 19 Jan 20

Home By The Lee (IRE) 37 13 18 16 May 26

Comfort Zone (IRE) 35 6 15 11 Oct 26

Darasso (FR)from G Cherel 33 8 15 15 Apr 23

Plinth (IRE)from A P O'Brien · then E Bolger 33 4 8 6 Oct 19

Ivanovich Gorbatov (IRE)from A P O'Brien 32 1 4 23 Aug 19

King's Vow (FR) 31 4 9 24 Aug 21

Dawn Rising (IRE)from A P O'Brien 30 4 12 10 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,701 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 21 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 19 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A P O'Brien (10) and G Cherel (2); 41 had their first archived run for this yard.

22 have since run for another yard, most often for Ben Haslam (4) and E Bolger (4); 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

2 from 34 5.9% · −8.2pts vs baseline

Last 14 days5.9%

Lifetime base14.1%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

191412121314171314131315

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDylan Browne McMonagle

14% of all rides
18.9% SR · A/E 1.09

RiderRWSR£1

Dylan Browne McMonagle 1,683 318 18.9% −217.00

Declan McDonogh 1,612 176 10.9% −558.76

J J Slevin 1,048 163 15.6% −136.38

Shane Crosse 1,039 156 15% −221.54

Donnacha O'Brien 753 135 17.9% −86.92

Mikey Sheehy 538 64 11.9% −63.23

Mark Walsh 488 86 17.6% −110.09

W. M. Lordan 342 44 12.9% −4.44

J M Sheridan 290 49 16.9% +32.93

H. J. Horgan 253 28 11.1% +71.12

Jody McGarvey 189 16 8.5% −85.60

Mr T Hamilton 178 41 23% −7.46

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→

1,662

Archived wins

268

Pattern / graded wins

£52.1m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 190 wins

Latrobe (IRE) — Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) Curragh · Jun 2018 · Group 1

£855,000

State Of Rest (IRE) — Prince Of Wales's Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Ascot · Jun 2022 · Group 1

£599,708

Apples And Bananas (IRE) — Goffs Million Curragh · Sep 2024

£495,000

Notable horses

Home By The Lee (IRE) Banbridge (IRE) Prairie Dancer (IRE) San Andreas (IRE) Fakir D'oudairies (FR) Solness (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Galileo (IRE) 14% · 78–558

Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,201 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.4% from 890.

Camelot (GB) 13.6% · 63–464

Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,727 runs since 2017 (761 horses).

Zoffany (IRE) 10.3% · 45–437

Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,779 runs since 2015 (799 horses).

Australia (GB) 15.5% · 64–414

Progeny have won 11.2% of 5,676 runs since 2018 (566 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.

Fastnet Rock (AUS) 12.3% · 48–390

Progeny have won 12.1% of 5,486 runs since 2013 (557 horses).

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 12.5% · 32–257

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,218 runs since 2014 (664 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.5% from 1,197.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 11,807 · newest first

The latest 50 of 11,807 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 June 2016 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Warrior Of Siam (IRE)J: Declan McDonogh Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden8f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 20/1

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) On Just Terms (USA)J: J M Sheridan Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden8f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 5/4F

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Duchess Of Kenli (FR)J: J M Sheridan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cooley Fillies Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 80/1

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Dancing Saxon (IRE)J: Declan McDonogh Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cooley Fillies Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 13/2

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Corsican Night (IRE)J: Declan McDonogh Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 20/1

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Ladies Gossip (IRE)J: J M Sheridan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 9/4

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Golden Splendour (GB)J: Declan McDonogh QuinnBet Finale Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 12f · Yielding · 12 ran 8th 10/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Shosholoza (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett QuinnBet Finale Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 12f · Yielding · 12 ran 7th 25/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Mawhibah (QA)J: Nathan Crosse QuinnBet Finale Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 12f · Yielding · 12 ran 3rd 100/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Contorsion (USA)J: J M Sheridan QuinnBet Finale Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 12f · Yielding · 12 ran 2nd 14/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Sky Captain (IRE)J: Declan McDonogh QuinnBet Loughbrown Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 6th 9/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Snapretend (IRE)J: J M Sheridan QuinnBet Loughbrown Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 4th 10/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Galileo Dame (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan QuinnBet Loughbrown Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 3rd 22/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Go Just Do It (GB)J: J M Sheridan Ryans Cleaning Race7f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 9th 7/1

01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Cornelienne (IRE)J: Harry Cobden Paddy Power 'Did You Watch The Breeders Cup At All?' Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 19 ran 1st 5/2

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) State Of Play (FR)J: J M Sheridan Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 11th 16/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Thunder Bay (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 7th 20/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Erico (GER)J: Declan McDonogh Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 3rd 33/1

31 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Banbridge (IRE)J: J. J. Slevin BetVictor, Remembering Envoi Allen Champion Steeplechase (Grade 1)Class 1 · 24f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 9/4

31 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Kenough (FR)J: J. J. Slevin Lisburn And Castlereagh City Council 3-Y-O Hurdle17f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 1/1F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 12 runs (won 2) · fastest on KTB Speed in 10 runs (won 2) · to 1 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Joseph Patrick O'Brien's strike rate?: Joseph Patrick O'Brien has won 1,662 of 11,807 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Joseph Patrick O'Brien do best at?: Roscommon by strike rate: 57 wins from 294 runners (19.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Joseph Patrick O'Brien?: Dylan Browne McMonagle, with 1,683 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 318 (18.9%).
Is Joseph Patrick O'Brien in form?: In the last 14 days: 34 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 5.9%. That is below the baseline of 14.1% since 2008.
What is Joseph Patrick O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 1.05, from 11,798 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.