What is Lucinda Russell's strike rate?

Lucinda Russell has won 900 of 7,709 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lucinda Russell do best at?

Hexham by strike rate: 120 wins from 743 runners (16.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Lucinda Russell?

Derek Fox, with 1,697 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 217 (12.8%).

What is Lucinda Russell's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 7,697 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Lucinda Russell

7,709 runners in the lifetime window · 667 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Aug 2025 93% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

900–7,709

Wins / Runs

11.7%

Strike rate

n=7,709

2,339 (30%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=7,697 · 0.84 incl. margin

−1,864.16

£1 level stake

n=7,709 at SP · −24.2%

£10.6m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

13.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 410 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96).

Deterministic profile computed from 7,709 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 34.1% when favourite Derek Fox: 12.8% from 1,697 Sends off the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Hexham (16.2%, n=743), clear of the yard's 11.7% baseline. It is weakest at Catterick (0% over 35 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Derek Fox rides 22% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (12.8%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 5.6% over 125 runners, 6.1pts below the baseline. 18 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree (Apr 2017, £561,300). The stable star of the record: Bescot Springs (IRE) — 9 wins from 69 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.2%−1.5

n=1,735 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −490.95

New recruits · first run for the yard

9.5%−2.2

n=241 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −54.38

Debutants · first career start

12%+0.3

n=384 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −21.81

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.6%−2.1

n=313 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −127.74

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9%−2.7

n=155 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −10.75

When favourite

34.1%

n=736 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −31.70

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.5%−0.2

n=3,157 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −814.08

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10.1%−1.6

n=179 · A/E 0.99 · £1 +68.33

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Catterick 0% vs 11.7% · n=35

With Tom Eaves 0% vs 11.7% · n=31

On last-time-out winners 17.3% vs 11.7% · n=897

With Harry Reed 2.6% vs 11.7% · n=38

At Hexham 16.2% vs 11.7% · n=743

Over 6f – 7f 5.6% vs 11.7% · n=125

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 3,616 373 10.3% −939.62

Chase 3,024 432 14.3% −622.76

Flat 577 48 8.3% −143.98

NH Flat 492 47 9.6% −157.80

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 2,267 230 10.1% −753.47

Soft 2,113 283 13.4% −365.29

Good to Soft 1,871 212 11.3% −245.15

Heavy 1,048 135 12.9% −363.71

Good to Firm 262 25 9.5% −104.12

Standard (AW) 148 15 10.1% −32.42

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Perth 1,204 119 9.9% −374.10

Ayr 1,096 144 13.1% −247.70

Kelso 985 130 13.2% −196.02

Musselburgh 891 107 12% −244.58

Hexham 743 120 16.2% −64.93

Carlisle 562 48 8.5% −192.02

Newcastle 511 67 13.1% −114.80

Wetherby 276 31 11.2% −70.36

Haydock 187 22 11.8% −5.92

Aintree 145 13 9% +68.46

Newcastle (AW) 116 12 10.3% −21.42

Cheltenham 115 9 7.8% −30.50

Hamilton 111 7 6.3% −47.17

Cartmel 111 8 7.2% −71.10

Bangor-on-Dee 89 13 14.6% −4.67

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 3,734 470 12.6% −909.88

Class 5 1,669 185 11.1% −421.55

Class 3 1,258 148 11.8% −420.06

Class 2 396 30 7.6% −123.33

Class 6 387 40 10.3% −39.92

Class 1 255 27 10.6% +60.58

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 903 283 31.3% 1.03 −60.43

2nd–3rd fav 2,061 335 16.3% 0.93 −360.73

4th–6th fav 2,859 226 7.9% 0.95 −591.00

7th+ in betting 1,886 56 3% 0.77 −852.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 2,351 257 10.9% −714.81

2m1f – 2m4f 2,334 279 12% −618.70

2m5f – 3m 2,027 252 12.4% −389.78

Over 3m 528 71 13.4% −29.89

1m2f – 1m4f 170 13 7.6% −56.97

1m – 1m1f 134 16 11.9% −22.01

6f – 7f 125 7 5.6% −35.50

Under 6f 40 5 12.5% +3.50

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 301 35 11.6% −8.65

2009 299 29 9.7% −17.75

2010 285 31 10.9% −100.03

2011 453 50 11% −130.32

2012 493 70 14.2% −134.11

2013 489 65 13.3% −129.73

2014 494 44 8.9% −226.95

2015 458 59 12.9% −59.82

2016 429 33 7.7% −180.97

2017 341 40 11.7% −37.06

2018 393 50 12.7% −107.51

2019 406 36 8.9% −127.96

2020 370 33 8.9% −123.22

2021 430 44 10.2% +8.79

2022 420 58 13.8% −114.47

2023 553 92 16.6% −38.00

2024 734 83 11.3% −296.77

2025 361 48 13.3% −39.63

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 5,470 637 11.6% −1,324.77

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,649 279 10.5% −764.48

5-7 runners 2,274 337 14.8% −470.43

11-13 runners 1,592 127 8% −541.95

14-16 runners 676 51 7.5% −120.75

2-4 runners 332 94 28.3% +10.95

17+ runners 186 12 6.5% +22.50

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.7% completed · 6,640 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 3,024 80.2% 129 98 368 3 2

Hurdle 3,616 88.5% 75 26 303 5 6

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Bescot Springs (IRE)from Philip Hobbs 69 9 21 17 Nov 17

Quito Du Tresor (FR)from T Boivin 67 8 21 20 Jan 17

Ballyare (GB)from Mrs C O'Leary 63 6 17 8 Feb 25

Urban Kode (IRE)from Ollie Pears 56 4 18 7 Jan 19

Morning Time (IRE)from Mrs John Harrington 55 6 12 21 Aug 17

Vengeur De Guye (FR)from Emmanuel Clayeux 49 5 18 9 Jan 22

Kai Broon (IRE) 45 4 9 5 Sep 16

Tap Night (USA) 44 7 15 29 Mar 18

Cuban Cigar (GB)from Richard Hannon · then Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore 43 3 16 13 Jul 25

Mumgos Debut (IRE) 41 7 17 16 Mar 19

Izzy's Champion (IRE) 40 3 12 18 Feb 24

Orioninverness (IRE) 39 5 14 18 Mar 21

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 667 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 27 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 26 arrived from another yard in our archive; 34 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

12111411111110109131411

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDerek Fox

22% of all rides
12.8% SR · A/E 0.97

RiderRWSR£1

Derek Fox 1,697 217 12.8% −246.40

Peter Buchanan 1,610 198 12.3% −347.90

Stephen Mulqueen 629 61 9.7% −245.99

Patrick Wadge 479 74 15.4% −98.68

Blair Campbell 468 55 11.8% −127.14

Campbell Gillies 404 61 15.1% +50.69

Grant Cockburn 339 30 8.8% −154.25

Craig Nichol 314 36 11.5% −109.54

Graham Watters 159 16 10.1% −42.37

Alan Doyle 141 18 12.8% −51.17

Thomas Willmott 134 15 11.2% −41.22

Oisin Orr 123 18 14.6% −2.30

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

960

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£11.2m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 92 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

One For Arthur (IRE) — Randox Health Grand National (Grade 3 Handicap Chase) Aintree · Apr 2017 · Grade 3

£561,300

Corach Rambler (IRE) — Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Aintree · Apr 2023 · Class 1

£500,000

Mighty Thunder (GB) — Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Ayr · Apr 2021 · Grade 3

£84,405

Notable horses

Bescot Springs (IRE) Big River (IRE) Quito Du Tresor (FR) Catch The Perk (IRE) Mighty Thunder (GB) Alizee De Janeiro (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Milan (GB) 12.8% · 43–337

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,892 runs since 2008 (1,465 horses).

Beneficial (GB) 11.4% · 24–211

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,047 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Presenting (GB) 6% · 10–166

Progeny have won 11% of 20,053 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Gold Well (GB) 12.1% · 20–165

Progeny have won 12.2% of 5,648 runs since 2011 (363 horses).

Malinas (GER) 14% · 21–150

Progeny have won 14.1% of 3,965 runs since 2010 (420 horses).

Dylan Thomas (IRE) 20.7% · 23–111

Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,497 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,600 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,600 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 2 August 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Aug 25 Hamilton Transfuse (IRE)J: Pierre-Louis Jamin MacGregor Flooring HandicapClass 6 · 9f · Good · 7 ran 6th 6/1

02 Aug 25 Hamilton Two Auld Pals (IRE)J: David Nolan Apex Traffic Management Ltd Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 13f · Good · 9 ran 6th 13/2

02 Aug 25 Hamilton Orphan Ollie (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Margaret Smith Memorial Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 11f · Good · 6 ran 6th 12/1

01 Aug 25 Musselburgh Panthere Noir (GB)J: Oisin McSweeney EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 4th 25/1

01 Aug 25 Musselburgh Rory The Cat (IRE)J: Oisin McSweeney Morris & Spottiswood Group HandicapClass 6 · 13f · Good · 6 ran 6th 20/1

28 Jul 25 Ayr Transfuse (IRE)J: Andrew Mullen Guinness HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 4th 28/1

28 Jul 25 Ayr Moyola (GB)J: Oisin Orr San Miguel HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 3/1

28 Jul 25 Ayr Jujubella (IRE)J: Oisin Orr Outcider Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 6th 16/1

28 Jul 25 Ayr John L Sullivan (IRE)J: Oisin Orr Schweppes HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 5/1

24 Jul 25 Worcester Mayos Vendangeur (IRE)J: Miss Megan Davies Dolphin Tec Amateur Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 11/2

22 Jul 25 Musselburgh Balmerino (GB)J: Jack Nicholls Lucas Ice Cream Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 9f · Good · 4 ran 4th 9/4

22 Jul 25 Musselburgh Rory The Cat (IRE)J: Oisin Orr Sankt Goarshausen 1980 HandicapClass 6 · 12.5f · Good · 8 ran 8th 13/2

22 Jul 25 Musselburgh Transfuse (IRE)J: Amie Waugh Sankt Goarshausen 1980 HandicapClass 6 · 12.5f · Good · 8 ran 6th 18/1

21 Jul 25 Ayr South Road (IRE)J: Kevin Stott Dream Weddings At Western House Hotel HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 5th 8/1

19 Jul 25 Cartmel Starlyte (IRE)J: Patrick Wadge PSR Marquees Crystal Cup Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 22f · Good · 14 ran 11th 20/1

17 Jul 25 Hamilton Bring Her Home (IRE)J: P J McDonald Racing TV Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 125/1

16 Jul 25 Uttoxeter Somebody's Fortune (IRE)J: Patrick Wadge BetWright Safer Gambling Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 16 ran PU 40/1

16 Jul 25 Uttoxeter Killybegs Jet Lady (IRE)J: Alan Doyle BetWright Safer Gambling Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 16 ran 5th 5/1

14 Jul 25 Ayr Balmerino (GB)J: Oisin Orr Try Racing TV For Free Now HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 17/2

14 Jul 25 Ayr Moyola (GB)J: Oisin Orr Watch Racing TV Free For 31 Days HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good · 7 ran 4th 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Lucinda Russell's strike rate?: Lucinda Russell has won 900 of 7,709 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lucinda Russell do best at?: Hexham by strike rate: 120 wins from 743 runners (16.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Lucinda Russell?: Derek Fox, with 1,697 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 217 (12.8%).
What is Lucinda Russell's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 7,697 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.