What is Lucy Wadham's strike rate?

Lucy Wadham has won 424 of 2,904 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.6% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lucy Wadham do best at?

Fakenham by strike rate: 69 wins from 244 runners (28.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Lucy Wadham?

Leighton Aspell, with 587 runners since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 83 (14.1%).

Is Lucy Wadham in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Lucy Wadham's Fair A/E?

1.12, from 2,892 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Lucy Wadham

2,904 runners in the lifetime window · 265 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 2 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

424–2,904

Wins / Runs

14.6%

Strike rate

n=2,904

1,033 (36%)

Placed

1.12

Fair A/E

n=2,892 · 0.98 incl. margin

−137.04

£1 level stake

n=2,903 at SP · −4.7%

£4.89m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

18.9%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 150 runners a season, winning with 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.12). New recruits from other yards win at 17% first time out (79 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,904 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 38.4% when favourite Leighton Aspell: 14.1% from 587 New recruits: 16.5% Sends off the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Fakenham (28.3%, n=244), clear of the yard's 14.6% baseline. It is weakest at Aintree (2.9% over 34 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 6.1% (n=212, Fair A/E 0.72). Leighton Aspell rides 20% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (14.1%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (32.5%, n=40). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 6.1% over 246 runners, 8.5pts below the baseline. 14 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Midnite All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance Handicap at Newcastle (AW) (Apr 2026, £90,195). The stable star of the record: Eleazar (GER) — 10 wins from 34 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

12.5%−2.1

n=568 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −4.64

New recruits · first run for the yard

16.5%+1.9

n=79 · A/E 1.54 · £1 +5.38

Debutants · first career start

7.9%−6.7

n=164 · A/E 0.81 · £1 +21.25

First-time headgear · true-first definition

12.3%−2.3

n=138 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −7.12

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

16.4%+1.8

n=73 · A/E 1.42 · £1 +8.73

When favourite

38.4%

n=323 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +7.59

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

13.1%−1.5

n=497 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −45.80

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.1%−8.5

n=212 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −127.61

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Fakenham 28.3% vs 14.6% · n=244

Off a 0-7-day break 32.5% vs 14.6% · n=40

In Class 1 6.1% vs 14.6% · n=246

In Group / Graded races 6.1% vs 14.6% · n=212

At Aintree 2.9% vs 14.6% · n=34

With Jim Crowley 25% vs 14.6% · n=44

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,357 198 14.6% −148.27

Flat 664 93 14% +31.37

Chase 644 106 16.5% −56.67

NH Flat 239 27 11.3% +36.53

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 856 128 15% +51.25

Good to Soft 713 94 13.2% −91.33

Soft 677 90 13.3% −173.55

Standard (AW) 269 39 14.5% +86.59

Heavy 212 38 17.9% −45.72

Good to Firm 172 34 19.8% +39.19

Firm 5 1 20% −3.47

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Fakenham 244 69 28.3% +75.27

Huntingdon 215 32 14.9% −18.85

Market Rasen 171 22 12.9% −54.50

Warwick 154 22 14.3% +57.45

Sandown 145 16 11% −47.09

Doncaster 132 15 11.4% −11.54

Newbury 110 9 8.2% −29.70

Southwell 96 15 15.6% −32.55

Kempton (AW) 93 12 12.9% −29.45

Cheltenham 88 8 9.1% −38.93

Kempton 84 13 15.5% −6.75

Lingfield 83 14 16.9% +5.93

Uttoxeter 82 14 17.1% +0.75

Plumpton 79 11 13.9% −26.94

Lingfield (AW) 76 12 15.8% +88.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 1,055 175 16.6% −93.69

Class 3 600 93 15.5% +127.14

Class 5 556 75 13.5% +5.71

Class 2 272 34 12.5% −25.73

Class 1 246 15 6.1% −144.61

Class 6 172 32 18.6% −3.86

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 391 143 36.6% 1.19 +16.59

2nd–3rd fav 856 161 18.8% 1.08 −80.63

4th–6th fav 970 88 9.1% 1.08 −99.00

7th+ in betting 686 32 4.7% 1.21 +26.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 933 142 15.2% −66.70

2m1f – 2m4f 687 94 13.7% −135.86

2m5f – 3m 615 99 16.1% +6.83

1m2f – 1m4f 319 55 17.2% +110.16

Over 3m 166 15 9% −24.22

1m – 1m1f 111 12 10.8% +14.75

6f – 7f 68 5 7.4% −44.25

Under 6f 5 2 40% +2.25

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 112 21 18.8% +28.58

2009 146 17 11.6% −20.32

2010 141 17 12.1% −9.54

2011 150 24 16% +25.65

2012 159 23 14.5% +27.23

2013 182 29 15.9% +7.57

2014 161 19 11.8% −55.07

2015 193 33 17.1% +87.22

2016 171 24 14% −69.34

2017 140 14 10% −78.92

2018 181 29 16% −20.05

2019 146 20 13.7% +15.35

2020 141 18 12.8% +7.48

2021 184 32 17.4% +1.78

2022 161 13 8.1% −109.65

2023 161 27 16.8% −7.94

2024 150 26 17.3% −7.53

2025 130 20 15.4% −9.25

2026 95 18 18.9% +49.71

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,809 264 14.6% −74.99

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 991 134 13.5% −45.64

5-7 runners 728 148 20.3% −30.94

11-13 runners 618 69 11.2% +61.83

14-16 runners 315 30 9.5% −23.82

17+ runners 156 3 1.9% −117.50

2-4 runners 96 40 41.7% +19.03

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.8% completed · 2,001 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 644 76.2% 27 19 106 1 0

Hurdle 1,357 88.9% 16 9 124 2 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Dance To Paris (GB) 47 6 19 26 May 23

Potters Legend (GB)then Charlie Longsdon 41 7 20 3 May 22

Le Reve (IRE)then J P Owen 41 8 14 8 Mar 20

Manshoor (IRE) 41 5 12 30 Sep 13

Arqoob (IRE)from William Jarvis 39 7 17 3 Oct 26

Shanroe Santos (IRE)from J J Lambe 38 6 13 18 Mar 21

Songsmith (GB) 37 5 16 8 Nov 15

Noble Silk (GB) 35 4 17 21 Oct 16

Eclair De Guye (FR) 34 4 14 24 Apr 24

El Dancer (GER) 34 6 14 6 Mar 15

Midnight Macarena (GB) 34 5 12 21 Apr 14

Movie Legend (GB)from Ben Case 33 6 17 30 Mar 21

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 265 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 17 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Sir Mark Prescott Bt (2); 47 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for Charlie Longsdon (3); 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 2

Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

15181414161413159181314

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderLeighton Aspell

20% of all rides
14.1% SR · A/E 0.99

RiderRWSR£1

Leighton Aspell 587 83 14.1% −77.22

Bryony Frost 282 46 16.3% −29.01

Tom Cannon 207 39 18.8% +1.43

Dominic Elsworth 157 30 19.1% +51.37

Maxime Tissier 139 22 15.8% +31.04

Matt Crawley 91 10 11% −4.80

Jack Quinlan 86 11 12.8% +8.73

Dougie Costello 65 5 7.7% −11.50

Aidan Coleman 50 9 18% −11.76

Richard Johnson 48 9 18.8% +12.84

Luke Morris 46 5 10.9% +29.25

Jim Crowley 44 11 25% +62.19

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

464

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£5.39m

Prize money

2015

Best season · 33 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

The Glen Rovers (GB) — Midnite All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Newcastle (AW) · Apr 2026 · Class 2

£90,195

United (GER) — C.McEvoy Auctioneers Champion 4yo Hurdle (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2005 · Grade 1

£68,200

Lady Tiana (GB) — bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Fillies' Group 2) Haydock · Jul 2015 · Group 2

£52,740

Notable horses

Eleazar (GER) Le Reve (IRE) Martello Sky (GB) United (GER) Potters Legend (GB) Arqoob (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Midnight Legend (GB) 16.5% · 33–200

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Sir Percy (GB) 13.5% · 22–163

Progeny have won 11.2% of 7,153 runs since 2011 (473 horses).

King's Theatre (IRE) 21.7% · 13–60

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Champs Elysees (GB) 14% · 8–57

Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,127 runs since 2013 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.

Lord Americo (IRE) 17.6% · 9–51

Progeny have won 7.8% of 2,189 runs since 2008 (237 horses).

Malinas (GER) 20% · 10–50

Progeny have won 14.2% of 3,956 runs since 2010 (419 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,218 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,218 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Nov 26 Lingfield Lets Go Mo (IRE)J: Tom Cannon Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 9/1

29 Oct 26 Stratford Jax Belle (GB)J: Tom Cannon 4 X 4 Tyres Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 6th 33/1

17 Oct 26 Market Rasen Rialannah (IRE)J: Sean Quinlan Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 23f · Good · 5 ran 4th 11/2

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Cotton Socks (GB)J: Tom Cannon We Buy Cars On The Go Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 6th 11/2

03 Oct 26 Newmarket Arqoob (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Hkjc World Pool Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 2 · 12f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 1st 20/1

13 Sep 26 Doncaster Arqoob (IRE)J: Harry Davies Betfred Mallard Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 2 · 14.5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 22/1

10 Sep 26 Worcester Baltic (GB)J: Tom Cannon CopyBet Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 9th 7/2

29 Aug 26 Sandown The Glen Rovers (GB)J: William Buick Zyn Frontrunner Finish Handicap StakesClass 2 · 10f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 10th 40/1

23 Aug 26 Worcester Baltic (GB)J: Tom Cannon Neu-Servo Phils Last Shift Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 28/1

22 Aug 26 Newmarket (July) Arqoob (IRE)J: Callum Hutchinson Blackwell Earthmoving 70th Anniversary Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 14f · Good · 5 ran 1st 15/2

08 Aug 26 Newmarket (July) Baltic (GB)J: Ashley Lewis William Hill Price Boosts Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 14f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 6th 11/1

01 Aug 26 Newmarket (July) Arqoob (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Racing Welfare Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 12f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 1st 10/1

28 Jul 26 Yarmouth Baltic (GB)J: Sean D Bowen Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap StakesClass 5 · 14f · Good To Firm · 3 ran 2nd 7/2

25 Jul 26 York The Glen Rovers (GB)J: James Doyle Sky Bet Build A Bet Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 12f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 4th 12/1

05 Jul 26 Southwell (AW) Baltic (GB)J: Jamie Spencer Free Race Replays On attheraces.com HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 14/1

03 Jul 26 Sandown Arqoob (IRE)J: James Doyle JRA Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 12/1

25 Jun 26 Newcastle (AW) The Glen Rovers (GB)J: Sean D Bowen JenningsBet In Scarborough Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 10f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 9th 7/1

13 Jun 26 York Arqoob (IRE)J: Miss Brodie Hampson Queen Mother's Cup Handicap (Female Amateur Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 12f · Good · 9 ran 6th 8/1

12 Jun 26 Market Rasen Hurricane Bay (GB)J: Tom Cannon Bob And Babs Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 7/1

11 Jun 26 Yarmouth Baltic (GB)J: Sean D Bowen QuinnBet Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 11.5f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Lucy Wadham's strike rate?: Lucy Wadham has won 424 of 2,904 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.6% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lucy Wadham do best at?: Fakenham by strike rate: 69 wins from 244 runners (28.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Lucy Wadham?: Leighton Aspell, with 587 runners since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 83 (14.1%).
Is Lucy Wadham in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Lucy Wadham's Fair A/E?: 1.12, from 2,892 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.