Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.11). New recruits from other yards win at 13% first time out (45 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 258 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceDavid Bass: 10.9% from 92New recruits: 13.3%Claiming riders: 12.4%
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 6.6% (n=61, Fair A/E 1.09). David Bass rides 36% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.9%, A/E 1.16) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Soft going (17.1%, n=35). The record reads poorly in Chase races — 6.4% over 47 runners, 4.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.76 across 135 runners (7.4% strike, −58.92 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle at Doncaster (Jan 2026, £25,628).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.6%−3.9
n=61 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −41.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
13.3%+2.8
n=45 · A/E 1.99 · £1 −12.25
Debutants · first career start
9.5%−1.0
n=21 · A/E 1.47 · £1 −13.25
First-time headgear · true-first definition
14.8%+4.3
n=27 · A/E 1.42 · £1 −13.75
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.5
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
When favourite
20%
n=15 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −7.65
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12.4%+1.9
n=113 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −10.67
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
16.7%+6.2
n=6 · A/E 1.72 · £1 −3.90
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Soft going17.1% vs 10.5% · n=35
With a new jockey booking7.2% vs 10.5% · n=139
In Chase races6.4% vs 10.5% · n=47
On Good going7.4% vs 10.5% · n=135
With Mr Tom Broughton13.5% vs 10.5% · n=37
With horses switching code13.5% vs 10.5% · n=37
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle1722011.6%−43.32
Chase4736.4%−31.50
NH Flat2514%−22.25
Flat14321.4%+6.83
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good135107.4%−58.92
Good to Soft54611.1%−18.75
Soft35617.1%−5.32
Good to Firm18316.7%−7.75
Heavy800%−8.00
Standard (AW)8225%+8.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Worcester2229.1%+7.00
Market Rasen2015%−16.00
Stratford19210.5%−11.67
Hereford1715.9%−13.25
Huntingdon16212.5%−3.00
Chepstow1200%−12.00
Southwell11327.3%+11.50
Newton Abbot10110%−6.50
Cheltenham900%−9.00
Exeter9111.1%−0.50
Fontwell800%−8.00
Warwick8225%−0.25
Ffos Las8112.5%+5.00
Wincanton700%−7.00
Leicester6116.7%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 51231310.6%−19.50
Class 49299.8%−55.67
Class 619315.8%+1.83
Class 31218.3%−7.00
Class 18112.5%−5.90
Class 2400%−4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite19421.1%0.70−7.32
2nd–3rd fav601626.7%1.45+7.58
4th–6th fav8533.5%0.53−59.50
7th+ in betting9444.3%1.92−31.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f821012.2%−17.92
1m5f – 2m7879%−52.40
2m5f – 3m5858.6%−13.00
Over 3m2627.7%−13.75
6f – 7f500%−5.00
1m – 1m1f4250%+12.50
1m2f – 1m4f3133.3%+1.33
Under 6f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2019300%−3.00
2021900%−9.00
2022300%−3.00
2023600%−6.00
2024800%−8.00
20251141412.3%−1.25
20261151311.3%−59.99
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1401712.1%−8.92
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners10077%−58.75
5-7 runners801215%−25.32
11-13 runners49612.2%+14.83
14-16 runners1100%−11.00
17+ runners1000%−10.00
2-4 runners8225%+0.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 66 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 43 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Barry Brennan (2) and Chris Grant (2); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.
5 have since run for another yard; 55 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 8
Only 8 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
6583571162225926
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,064 runs since 2008 (201 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 17.6% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 258 · newest first
The latest 50 of 258 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 21 January 2019 to 21 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Max Comley's strike rate?
Max Comley has won 27 of 258 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.5% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Max Comley?
David Bass, with 92 runners since 2008 — 36% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (10.9%).
Is Max Comley in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Max Comley's Fair A/E?
1.11, from 256 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Max Comley·SR 10.5%·A/E 1.11
KTB
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