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Trainer profile

Sir Mark Todd

284 runners in the lifetime window · 35 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jan 2025 98% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
34–284
Wins / Runs
12%
Strike rate
n=284
86 (30%)
Placed
1.21
Fair A/E
n=281 · 1.02 incl. margin
−62.98
£1 level stake
n=284 at SP · −22.2%
£353k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.21).

Deterministic profile computed from 284 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance 38.7% when favourite David Probert: 19.8% from 86 Sends off the favourite in 11% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Wolverhampton (AW) (18.9%, n=37), clear of the yard's 12% baseline. David Probert rides 30% of the entries and beats the yard's average (19.8% vs 12%, A/E 1.82) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (19.5%, n=87). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 3% over 33 runners, 9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m – 1m1f: Fair A/E 0.85 across 70 runners (7.1% strike, −45.07 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.6%−1.4
n=47 · A/E 1.45 · £1 −14.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
16.7%+4.7
n=6 · A/E 1.89 · £1 +3.50
Debutants · first career start
10%−2.0
n=30 · A/E 2.41 · £1 +12.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
11.8%−0.2
n=17 · A/E 1.65 · £1 −9.28
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−12.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
38.7%
n=31 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +3.56
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
9.8%−2.2
n=41 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −25.93
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−12.0
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With David Probert 19.8% vs 12% · n=86
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 19.5% vs 12% · n=87
Off a 61-180-day break 3% vs 12% · n=33
At Wolverhampton (AW) 18.9% vs 12% · n=37
With a new jockey booking 7.2% vs 12% · n=153
Over 1m – 1m1f 7.1% vs 12% · n=70
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 279 34 12.2% −57.98
Hurdle 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 151 20 13.2% −5.65
Good to Firm 51 7 13.7% −6.20
Soft 30 2 6.7% −25.75
Good 29 2 6.9% −21.88
Good to Soft 13 2 15.4% −3.00
Heavy 7 1 14.3% +2.50
Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW) 44 5 11.4% −16.13
Lingfield (AW) 37 5 13.5% +14.25
Wolverhampton (AW) 37 7 18.9% +13.90
Chelmsford City (AW) 31 2 6.5% −21.17
Windsor 17 1 5.9% −15.00
Brighton 15 1 6.7% −12.75
Newbury 9 0 0% −9.00
Salisbury 9 1 11.1% −6.00
Leicester 9 3 33.3% +1.60
Yarmouth 9 1 11.1% −5.88
Ffos Las 8 2 25% +4.00
Goodwood 8 1 12.5% −2.50
Bath 7 2 28.6% +7.00
Newmarket 5 1 20% +14.00
Nottingham 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 138 16 11.6% −5.13
Class 6 77 10 13% −31.25
Class 4 54 6 11.1% −25.43
Class 1 9 0 0% −9.00
Class 3 5 2 40% +8.83
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 31 12 38.7% 1.37 +3.56
2nd–3rd fav 58 15 25.9% 1.62 +20.46
4th–6th fav 97 4 4.1% 0.58 −63.00
7th+ in betting 98 3 3.1% 0.95 −24.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Double Time (GB)then Tim Vaughan 26 4 10 30 Oct 24
Expert Witness (GB)then Patrick Chamings 20 3 9 25 Oct 24
Cape Cornwall Rose (IRE) 19 0 2 21 Aug 23
Wow William (FR) 16 2 3 25 Jun 22
Kyllinga (IRE) 16 0 3 19 Aug 21
Mercian Hymn (GB) 14 2 5 23 Sep 22
Soyounique (IRE)then Stuart Williams 13 2 4 22 Jun 21
Tasman Bay (FR) 12 2 5 26 Apr 24
Rose Fandango (GB)then Scott Dixon 12 0 4 28 Jan 22
Rockit Tommy (GB)then Patrick Chamings 10 4 6 30 Oct 24
Native Beach (IRE) 10 1 3 11 Sep 23
St Just In Time (GB)then Harry Derham 9 0 2 30 May 24
All 35 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 35 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 30 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Patrick Chamings (3); 20 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1801916111559718127
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDavid Probert
30% of all rides
19.8% SR · A/E 1.82
RiderRWSR£1
David Probert 86 17 19.8% +25.09
George Rooke 59 7 11.9% −2.84
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
34
Archived wins
£353k
Prize money
2021
Best season · 13 wins
Tasman Bay (FR) — Best Cleaning Group Handicap Bath · Apr 2024 · Class 3
£14,394
Native Beach (IRE) — Spreadex Sports Live UK Racing Streaming Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Wolverhampton (AW) · Apr 2023 · Class 3
£7,830
Double Time (GB) — Spreadex Sports 300 Spread Betting Cashback Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Mar 2023 · Class 4
£7,642
Notable horses
Double Time (GB) Rockit Tommy (GB) Expert Witness (GB) Wow William (FR) Mercian Hymn (GB) Soyounique (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Siyouni (FR) 14.3% · 5–35
Progeny have won 13% of 8,357 runs since 2014 (978 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.2% from 457.
Bated Breath (GB) 15.4% · 4–26
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,173 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 855.
Footstepsinthesand (GB) 19% · 4–21
Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,806 runs since 2009 (937 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.
Expert Eye (GB) 15% · 3–20
Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,211 runs since 2022 (197 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 13.1% from 406.
Awtaad (IRE) 0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 11.5% of 2,885 runs since 2020 (210 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.7% from 104. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.1% from 115.
Exceed and Excel (AUS) 0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,036 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 284 · newest first

The latest 50 of 284 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 August 2019 to 3 January 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
03 Jan 25 Lingfield (AW) Champagne Belle (GB)J: Ross Coakley Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 4th 40/1
30 Dec 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Rebel Cove (IRE)J: David Probert Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 5 ran 4th 28/1
16 Dec 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Champagne Belle (GB)J: David Probert Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM EBF 'Confined' Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 33/1
09 Dec 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Rebel Cove (IRE)J: Charles Bishop Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 12/1
30 Oct 24 Kempton (AW) Rockit Tommy (GB)J: David Probert Unibet Support Safe Gambling HandicapClass 4 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 8 ran 1st 9/4F
30 Oct 24 Nottingham Double Time (GB)J: Hector Crouch 2025 Fixtures On Sale Now HandicapClass 4 · 8.5f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 9/2
25 Oct 24 Newbury Expert Witness (GB)J: David Probert Renegade Brewery Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Heavy · 10 ran 10th 17/2
13 Oct 24 Goodwood Double Time (GB)J: Charles Bishop William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Heavy · 9 ran 8th 11/1
11 Oct 24 Kempton (AW) Rockit Tommy (GB)J: Taylor Fisher Unibet More Boosts In More Races HandicapClass 4 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 2nd 7/2
03 Oct 24 Salisbury Expert Witness (GB)J: David Probert Pkf Francis Clark HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Heavy · 11 ran 3rd 9/1
02 Oct 24 Kempton (AW) Double Time (GB)J: David Probert North Farm Stud Handicap (Div 1)Class 4 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 6th 50/1
02 Oct 24 Kempton (AW) Rockit Tommy (GB)J: David Probert Highclere Castle Feeds HandicapClass 4 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 1st 9/1
06 Sep 24 Ascot Double Time (GB)J: Miss Megan Jordan LK Bennett Lady Amateur Jockeys Handicap (Female Amateur Jockeys) (Str)Class 4 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 4th 9/1
05 Sep 24 Lingfield (AW) Expert Witness (GB)J: Mia Nicholls National Racehorse Week 7th-15th September HandicapClass 4 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 25/1
04 Sep 24 Bath Rockit Tommy (GB)J: George Rooke Harrow Inn At Wanborough HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 12/1
14 Aug 24 Kempton (AW) Rockit Tommy (GB)J: George Rooke Try Unibet's Improved Bet Builder Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 8 ran 4th 18/1
14 Aug 24 Kempton (AW) Double Time (GB)J: George Rooke Unibet Support Safer Gambling HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 8th 28/1
14 Aug 24 Salisbury Expert Witness (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill British Stallion Studs EBF Upavon Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed)Class 1 · 10f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 6th 28/1
01 Aug 24 Epsom Downs Expert Witness (GB)J: Mia Nicholls Peter Bromwich Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 1st 16/5
25 Jul 24 Newbury Rockit Tommy (GB)J: Miss Megan Jordan Watch Weekend Winners With BetVictor Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 10th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Sir Mark Todd's strike rate?
Sir Mark Todd has won 34 of 284 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Sir Mark Todd do best at?
Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 7 wins from 37 runners (18.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Sir Mark Todd?
David Probert, with 86 runners since 2008 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (19.8%).
What is Sir Mark Todd's Fair A/E?
1.21, from 281 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).