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Trainer profile

William Durkan

589 runners in the lifetime window · 82 individual horses
As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 3 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
42–589
Wins / Runs
7.1%
Strike rate
n=589
127 (22%)
Placed
1.05
Fair A/E
n=588 · 0.84 incl. margin
−53.14
£1 level stake
n=589 at SP · −9.0%
£842k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
11%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.05). New recruits from other yards win at 11% first time out (47 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 589 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May Fresh horses: 7.4% New recruits: 10.6%
The read

The record is strongest at Ballinrobe (12.5%, n=32), clear of the yard's 7.1% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 10.6% (n=47, Fair A/E 1.69), but debutants struggle at 2.7% (n=37, Fair A/E 0.84). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 7.4% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.55 and +51.38 to a £1 stake over 122 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The record reads poorly on Good to Firm going — 0% over 36 runners, 7.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m – 1m1f: Fair A/E 0.21 across 86 runners (1.2% strike, −78.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Boulton Group Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter (Mar 2022, £84,405). Seasonally, the yard fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.4%+0.3
n=122 · A/E 1.55 · £1 +51.38
New recruits · first run for the yard
10.6%+3.5
n=47 · A/E 1.69 · £1 +11.33
Debutants · first career start
2.7%−4.4
n=37 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
3.7%−3.4
n=27 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −10.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
5.6%−1.5
n=36 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −14.67
When favourite
34.8%
n=23 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −4.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.7%−0.4
n=267 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −16.09
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
3.7%−3.4
n=27 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −14.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Philip Byrnes 20% vs 7.1% · n=45
Over 1m – 1m1f 1.2% vs 7.1% · n=86
On Good to Firm going 0% vs 7.1% · n=36
With Chris Hayes 13.5% vs 7.1% · n=37
With horses switching code 11.2% vs 7.1% · n=125
At Ballinrobe 12.5% vs 7.1% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 313 16 5.1% −83.24
Hurdle 211 21 10% −32.10
Chase 53 5 9.4% +74.20
NH Flat 12 0 0% −12.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 183 14 7.7% −70.15
Soft 154 13 8.4% −27.82
Standard (AW) 94 5 5.3% +21.50
Heavy 67 5 7.5% +56.25
Good to Soft 52 4 7.7% −10.92
Good to Firm 36 0 0% −36.00
Firm 3 1 33.3% +14.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 92 5 5.4% +23.50
Leopardstown 43 2 4.7% +0.50
Galway 42 3 7.1% −21.80
Fairyhouse 41 1 2.4% +40.00
Punchestown 33 4 12.1% +17.48
Ballinrobe 32 4 12.5% +0.53
Navan 28 2 7.1% −8.50
Cork 25 2 8% −13.67
Down Royal 23 2 8.7% −3.80
Naas 23 1 4.3% −19.75
Curragh 20 0 0% −20.00
Bellewstown 19 3 15.8% +3.50
Gowran Park 18 3 16.7% +16.33
Roscommon 17 0 0% −17.00
Limerick 16 2 12.5% +9.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 34 1 2.9% −21.00
Class 2 11 1 9.1% +10.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 26 8 30.8% 1.09 −7.75
2nd–3rd fav 80 9 11.3% 0.71 −42.89
4th–6th fav 144 14 9.7% 1.38 +15.50
7th+ in betting 339 11 3.2% 1.12 −18.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Fallen Forest (IRE) 35 2 7 14 Jun 22
Baltic Bird (GB)from John & Thady Gosden 28 3 7 31 Jul 26
Ilikehim (IRE) 24 0 7 7 Sep 20
Eagle Fang (IRE)from Keith Dalgleish 23 4 12 27 Sep 26
Go Large (IRE) 21 0 1 17 Aug 22
Mind The Pennies (IRE)from Mrs D J Coleman · then Aidan Anthony Howard 20 1 6 26 Oct 15
Wandering Rocks (GB)from James Fanshawe 19 1 3 28 Oct 26
Curly Girl (IRE)then C P Donoghue 19 0 3 7 Feb 20
Screaming Colours (IRE) 17 3 9 3 Dec 23
Shigar (IRE)from William Haggas 16 1 5 15 Aug 25
Carol's Return (GB) 16 1 2 1 Oct 20
Turn On The Tears (USA)from Jamie Osborne · then John James Feane 15 0 4 17 Jul 18
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 82 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 33 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from William Haggas (5) and Andrew Balding (3); 27 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for C P Donoghue (2); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
091791107951084
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderPhilip Byrnes
8% of all rides
20% SR · A/E 1.26
RiderRWSR£1
Philip Byrnes 45 9 20% +16.04
Chris Hayes 37 5 13.5% +35.00
Patrick M O'Brien 36 3 8.3% −3.30
Oakley Brown 33 3 9.1% +6.00
Jamie Orr 33 4 12.1% +21.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
42
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£849k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 11 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Screaming Colours (IRE) — Boulton Group Midlands Grand National (Listed Open Handicap Chase) (GBB Race) Uttoxeter · Mar 2022 · Listed
£84,405
Eagle's Way (GB) — Guinness Handicap (Premier Handicap) Galway · Aug 2024
£64,900
Touch The Moon (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Red God Handicap Dundalk (AW) (IRE) · Aug 2026
£30,000
Notable horses
Eagle Fang (IRE) Baltic Bird (GB) Screaming Colours (IRE) Fallen Forest (IRE) Holy See (IRE) Touch The Moon (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Most Improved (IRE) 5.7% · 2–35
Progeny have won 6.7% of 1,100 runs since 2017 (71 horses).
Farhh (GB) 3.4% · 1–29
Progeny have won 13.7% of 1,803 runs since 2017 (164 horses).
Frankel (GB) 10.7% · 3–28
Progeny have won 18% of 7,529 runs since 2016 (880 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 329. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.3% from 269.
Dubai Destination (USA) 11.1% · 3–27
Progeny have won 11% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.
Lawman (FR) 0% · 0–24
Progeny have won 8.9% of 9,427 runs since 2011 (730 horses).
Free Eagle (IRE) 17.4% · 4–23
Progeny have won 10.6% of 2,409 runs since 2019 (190 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.1% from 131.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 676 · newest first

The latest 50 of 676 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 January 2005 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
31 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Hopes Are High (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Kildress Plumbing Handicap Hurdle17f · Good · 12 ran 7th 15/2
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Time Bender (IRE)J: Jamie Orr Happy Halloween Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 25/1
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Little Miss Rock (IRE)J: Jamie Orr Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 33/1
28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Wandering Rocks (GB)J: Jamie Orr Happy Halloween Handicap12f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 12/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Rond Point (GB)J: Philip Byrnes Crottys Lake Maiden Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 4th 9/2
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Touch The Moon (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Handicap12f · Standard · 5 ran 5th 11/4
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Wandering Rocks (GB)J: Jamie Orr Halloween Mid-Term Racing At Dundalk Handicap12f · Standard · 7 ran 5th 25/1
09 Oct 26 Chepstow Laafi (FR)J: Philip Byrnes DragonBet 'Welsh Champion' Hurdle Race (A Limited Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 5th 14/1
27 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Holy See (IRE)J: Jamie Orr Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch17f · Heavy · 30 ran 29th 100/1
27 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Eagle Fang (IRE)J: Sadhbh Tormey Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch17f · Heavy · 30 ran 12th 33/1
24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Hopes Are High (IRE)J: Philip Byrnes Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Handicap) In Memory Of John Molyneaux (Listed)Class 1 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 6th 17/2
23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Rond Point (GB)J: Mr J C Barry Paul Moynihan (Ex VFI President) Memorial Flat Race20f · Good · 11 ran 4th 3/1
23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Golden Handshake (GB)J: Philip Byrnes Seamus Mulvaney Bookmaker Novice Hurdle16f · Good · 4 ran 1st 2/1
18 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Wandering Rocks (GB)J: Jamie Orr Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Apprentice Handicap12f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 33/1
12 Sep 26 Doncaster Touch The Moon (IRE)J: Saffie Osborne PJ Towey Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 10f · Good · 12 ran 8th 10/1
12 Sep 26 Chester Holy See (IRE)J: Oisin Orr Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Watergate Cup (Class 2 Heritage Handicap) (gbbplus Race)Class 2 · 16f · Soft · 10 ran 10th 9/2
10 Sep 26 Laytown (IRE) Sporting Hero (GB)J: Mr J C Barry Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports (Q.R.) Handicap6f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 14/1
04 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Hopes Are High (IRE)J: Philip Byrnes Séan Daly Memorial Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 3rd 11/1
01 Sep 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Bill Silvers (GB)J: Chris Hayes Support The Irish Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap8f · Yielding · 15 ran 12th 12/1
30 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Peckedbytheparrott (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden8f · Yielding · 15 ran 13th 80/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is William Durkan's strike rate?
William Durkan has won 42 of 589 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.1% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does William Durkan do best at?
Ballinrobe by strike rate: 4 wins from 32 runners (12.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is William Durkan in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is William Durkan's Fair A/E?
1.05, from 588 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 3 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).