What is Walter Swinburn's strike rate?

Walter Swinburn has won 160 of 1,439 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Walter Swinburn do best at?

Doncaster by strike rate: 6 wins from 32 runners (18.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Walter Swinburn?

Adam Kirby, with 695 runners since 2008 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 83 (11.9%).

What is Walter Swinburn's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 1,435 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Walter Swinburn

1,439 runners in the lifetime window · 166 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Oct 2011 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

160–1,439

Wins / Runs

11.1%

Strike rate

n=1,439

474 (33%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=1,435 · 0.84 incl. margin

−346.50

£1 level stake

n=1,439 at SP · −24.1%

£1.50m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

10.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 360 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.00). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 15% (83 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,439 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 12.7% 26.5% when favourite Adam Kirby: 11.9% from 695 Sent off the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Doncaster (18.8%, n=32), clear of the yard's 11.1% baseline. It is weakest at Lingfield (AW) (5% over 80 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a positive signal at 14.5% (n=83, Fair A/E 1.50), but debutants struggle at 3.2% (n=126, Fair A/E 0.57). Adam Kirby rode 48% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (11.9%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also read well on Soft going (18.2%, n=66) and at trips under 6f (17%, n=94). 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the 47th John Smith's Cup Heritage Handicap at York (Jul 2006, £93,480). The stable star of the record was Stotsfold (GB) — 9 wins from 29 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

12.7%+1.6

n=236 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −38.67

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−11.1

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Debutants · first career start

3.2%−7.9

n=126 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −90.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

14.5%+3.4

n=83 · A/E 1.50 · £1 −3.88

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

6.7%−4.4

n=30 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −22.17

When favourite

26.5%

n=151 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −22.28

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.4%−0.7

n=135 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −28.17

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.9%−3.2

n=63 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −34.60

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With debutants 3.2% vs 11.1% · n=126

On Soft going 18.2% vs 11.1% · n=66

At trips under 6f 17% vs 11.1% · n=94

At Lingfield (AW) 5% vs 11.1% · n=80

At Doncaster 18.8% vs 11.1% · n=32

With Saleem Golam 4.3% vs 11.1% · n=47

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 510 56 11% −147.03

Good to Firm 418 50 12% −89.88

Good 310 28 9% −66.07

Good to Soft 114 12 10.5% −47.27

Soft 66 12 18.2% +15.25

Firm 18 2 11.1% −8.50

Heavy 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 247 31 12.6% −45.25

Wolverhampton (AW) 142 19 13.4% −17.53

Windsor 138 16 11.6% −25.00

Sandown 96 13 13.5% −10.04

Lingfield (AW) 80 4 5% −51.50

Goodwood 66 9 13.6% −3.00

Ascot 59 6 10.2% −16.00

Leicester 50 5 10% −27.50

Newbury 50 5 10% −25.00

Newmarket 45 5 11.1% −21.94

Newmarket 43 2 4.7% −33.17

Salisbury 37 4 10.8% −16.70

Bath 34 6 17.6% +4.38

Doncaster 32 6 18.8% +31.75

Nottingham 30 2 6.7% −0.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 546 65 11.9% −99.19

Class 4 349 45 12.9% −68.15

Class 6 202 18 8.9% −69.47

Class 3 161 17 10.6% −66.09

Class 2 116 9 7.8% −20.00

Class 1 63 5 7.9% −34.60

Class 7 2 1 50% +11.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 200 51 25.5% 1.06 −22.87

2nd–3rd fav 391 54 13.8% 0.92 −104.13

4th–6th fav 480 45 9.4% 1.16 −36.50

7th+ in betting 368 10 2.7% 0.68 −183.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Shifting Star (IRE)then John Bridger 36 5 12 20 Oct 11

Willow Dancer (IRE) 33 6 15 26 Oct 11

Viking Spirit (GB) 25 2 7 21 Oct 10

Tagula Night (IRE)then Dean Ivory 23 5 10 9 Oct 11

Desert Kiss (GB) 22 4 9 10 Sep 11

Crown Choice (GB)then Paul Midgley 21 5 10 13 Aug 11

Knightfire (IRE) 21 2 5 14 Jun 11

Laudatory (GB)then Charlie Morlock 20 2 8 28 Sep 10

Monsieur Joe (IRE)then Robert Cowell 19 5 7 1 Oct 11

Master Lightfoot (GB) 19 3 8 10 Sep 10

Gouray Girl (IRE)then Henry Candy 18 2 6 22 Oct 11

Addictive Dream (IRE)then David Nicholls 18 3 11 8 Oct 11

The 60 most-raced of 166 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, none arrived from another yard in our archive — all 60 had their first archived run here.

28 have since run for another yard, most often for Mike Murphy (2); 32 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

6019179161012881019

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAdam Kirby

48% of all rides
11.9% SR · A/E 1.02

RiderRWSR£1

Adam Kirby 695 83 11.9% −189.82

Shane Kelly 176 21 11.9% −48.00

Eddie Ahern 68 10 14.7% +17.83

John Fahy 64 7 10.9% −11.00

Ted Durcan 49 7 14.3% +18.33

Saleem Golam 47 2 4.3% −34.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

266

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.65m

Prize money

2010

Best season · 52 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Fairmile (GB) — 47th John Smith's Cup Heritage Handicap York · Jul 2006 · Class 2

£93,480

Pinpoint (IRE) — John Smith's Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Newbury · Sep 2006 · Class 2

£62,320

Staying On (IRE) — Betfred Silver Bowl Heritage Handicap Haydock · May 2008 · Class 2

£62,310

Notable horses

Stotsfold (GB) Shifting Star (IRE) Willow Dancer (IRE) Tagula Night (IRE) Crown Choice (GB) Monsieur Joe (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Royal Applause (GB) 14.6% · 14–96

Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.

Cape Cross (IRE) 16.9% · 10–59

Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.

Leporello (IRE) 5.2% · 3–58

Progeny have won 5% of 238 runs since 2008 (19 horses).

Danehill Dancer (IRE) 16.7% · 8–48

Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.

King's Best (USA) 15.9% · 7–44

Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 12.5% · 5–40

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,807 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,445 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,445 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 January 2005 to 27 October 2011.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Oct 11 Kempton (AW) Adelindus (GB)J: Adam Kirby Play Cleopatra At bluesq.com Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 66/1

26 Oct 11 Nottingham Willow Dancer (IRE)J: Eddie Ahern Nottingham Racecourse Hospitality HandicapClass 4 · 8.5f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 10th 16/1

24 Oct 11 Redcar Lady Barastar (IRE)J: Adam Beschizza Market Cross Jewellers HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Good · 11 ran 6th 15/2

22 Oct 11 Wolverhampton (AW) Miss Chicane (GB)J: Liam Keniry Stay At The Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 10/1

22 Oct 11 Newbury Gouray Girl (IRE)J: John Fahy Worthington's Victoria Club Whizz Kids E.B.F. Avonbridge Fillies' Handicap (Str)Class 3 · 7f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 9th 9/1

21 Oct 11 Wolverhampton (AW) Dynamic Drive (IRE)J: Dale Swift Great Offers At wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 22/1

20 Oct 11 Wolverhampton (AW) Spin Cast (GB)J: John Fahy Weatherbys VAT Services Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 7/1

20 Oct 11 Wolverhampton (AW) Silver Alliance (GB)J: John Fahy Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 13/2

20 Oct 11 Wolverhampton (AW) Vimiero (USA)J: Jamie Spencer wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk HandicapClass 4 · 12f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 6/4F

20 Oct 11 Brighton Shifting Star (IRE)J: Sean Levey Brasserie Italian Marina Square HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 7th 4/1F

19 Oct 11 Kempton (AW) Majestic Dream (IRE)J: John Fahy Book Your Christmas Party At Kempton Handicap (Div 2)Class 4 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 15/2

18 Oct 11 Yarmouth Elegant Muse (GB)J: Adam Kirby Spiffing Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good · 16 ran 9th 14/1

17 Oct 11 Pontefract Perfect Pastime (GB)J: Chris Catlin totequadpot Handicap (Div 2)Class 4 · 5f · Good · 17 ran 4th 20/1

17 Oct 11 Windsor Vimiero (USA)J: Jim Crowley toteexacta HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 2nd 15/2

16 Oct 11 Bath Halyard (IRE)J: Natalia Gemelova toteswinger HandicapClass 4 · 13f · Good · 14 ran 13th 40/1

13 Oct 11 Brighton Spirit Of Oakdale (IRE)J: Louis-Philippe Beuzelin Ricky Hatton Here 9th November HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th 14/1

12 Oct 11 Kempton (AW) Poseidon Grey (IRE)J: Adam Kirby Pacair/British Stallion Studs E.B.F. Maiden StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 5 ran 3rd 4/1

12 Oct 11 Lingfield (AW) L'astre De Choisir (IRE)J: Jim Crowley Citipost Direct Distribution Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 5/1

12 Oct 11 Nottingham Absinthe (IRE)J: Dane O'Neill Denman - Building For You - HandicapClass 3 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 2nd 8/1

11 Oct 11 Leicester Silver Alliance (GB)J: Jimmy Quinn Stewards HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good · 15 ran 9th 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Walter Swinburn's strike rate?: Walter Swinburn has won 160 of 1,439 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Walter Swinburn do best at?: Doncaster by strike rate: 6 wins from 32 runners (18.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Walter Swinburn?: Adam Kirby, with 695 runners since 2008 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 83 (11.9%).
What is Walter Swinburn's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 1,435 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.